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Apophis may hit 2036


Daniel-K

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Well, the choice is, do you spend the next 22 years worrying yourself silly sbout it (and so exit through ill health), or do you try and live a normal happy-go-lucky life along with most everyone else? .. I know which one I prefer Daniel.

Anyway, they are now pretty much certain it'll pass us by without even a good bye kiss - I hear.

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I believe the latest observations have ruled out the possibility of a 2036 impact, although there is still a small possibility of it hitting in 2068 (latest estimate, 1 in 256,000 chance).

The reporting of asteroid threat often follow a common pattern. When the object is first detected the chance of impact is given as very low, as there are large uncertainties in its calculated orbit. As these figures are refined the chance of impact goes up, before finally being ruled out entirely. This diagram explains (sorry for the dark colours, it's a transparent background. Here's the original.):

500px-Apophis_ellipse.svg.png

On average, it's thought that Apophis-sized asteroids hit the Earth every 80,000 years or so.

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It WILL happen sometime. It's happened before. It will happen again. 2036 would suit me.

Just hope that my kids have perfected some sort of space/time machine to protect themselves by then.

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Shame it isn't a comet.

After another 22 years of Global Warming we'll be needing some fresh ice...

Anyway, as already said, it's going to happen sometime. That and worse are yet to come!

Don't take to the bunkers. That just drags out the inevitable.

Get the last train to ground zero and welcome it with open arms :)

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