Is the UK getting more cloudy?

[timwetherell]

is it just me or have we had fewer clear nights in the last few years? It seems that there's barely one clear night a month now yet looking back at my astro notebooks from the 1970s I was consistently making observations two or three times a week. Anyone else have this impression or know of a source of data on this?

 

[cotterless45]

Yep, I named it permacloud,

old Nick.

[Mak the Night]

I blame the jetstream, or possibly flared trousers.

[Knight of Clear Skies]

I apologize in advance for bringing data to a cloud thread.

It's difficult to say, the position of the jetstream has a huge effect on the weather we receive and the natural variance is very high. That said, climate change may well be at work. Here's a graph of UK rainfall since 1910:

As you can see, the year-on-year values are all over the place but the trend line is upwards.

On the other hand, annual sunshine has been increasing:

Sunshine hours aren't necessarily a great proxy value for cloud cover, for example less cloud in Summer has a disproportionately high effect. Digging more into the seasonal data the trend since the 1970s is for more sunshine in Autumn, Winter and Spring, so presumably more clear nights as well. The UK may be getting a little less cloudy on the whole but any trend is swamped by year-on-year variation and local weather. Even in a clearer-than-average year there is no guarantee anyone in a particular location would notice the difference.

In short, the UK is cloudy, a consequence of getting most of our weather from the Atlantic.

[timwetherell]

Interesting that we're getting more sunshine and more rain. As you say, lot's of year to year variations too. 

 

[JamesF]

Certainly as far as our little corner of west Somerset goes up until a couple of weeks ago it seemed quite common to come home from swimming coaching to clear skies and I recall my son commenting on it a few times, but after working poolside for two or three hours I often lacked the energy to take advantage of it.

It seems to have been pretty dreadful for the last couple of weeks though.  Even during the day I've looked out of the window next to my desk to see nothing but featureless dark grey sky.

James

[xtreemchaos]

I think this year been fairly clear here in south wales back in april I had 11 clear nights and days on the trot, but 2015 I was lucky if I got 2 clear nights a month, ive had 198 solar disc days this year so far so it carnt be bad, hope you get some clear soon, charl.

[Timebandit]

 

Hello. It seems to be that unfortunately we are just stuck with some type of weather hindrance in the UK and we just have to work around it.'This seems especially true after my recent meeting with fellow member Mark(to pick up my used tv diagonal) in which he was telling me about his trips to the US and the weather and seeing conditions available the other side of the pond. A really interesting and informative meeting.  It really brings home how some parts of the world really do have superior weather conditions and atmospheric conditions compared to the UK. And therefore they can make the most of the weather conditions to really get out and enjoy there hobby and magnificent views that are available to the lucky ones in the hobby. In saying that I do manage to make the best of our weather when able. My method is that I have realised and accepted our erratic weather and try and work around it. I have realised that I may be lucky to get 20 to 30 Min in a session at the scope every week and therefore have tailored my kit and viewing to accept this fact. Therefore my scope set ups have been tailored to be set up ready for action ASAP. I have the dob outside in the shed and therefore the ambient temperature should more or less be the same as the mirror temperature. And therefore it is a matter of opening the double shed doors and sliding the scope out onto the viewing Deck. Put the eyepiece in and off I go. Probably takes me no more that 2mins. Therefore I am ready to observe and take the benefit of the breaks in cloud cover. The refractor set up is also grab and go. The frac on a AZ mount, takes probably 4mins to set up. Unfortunately those with goto ect need to star align and the set up time can be substantially more ,or basically impossible due to the cloud cover. I also sometimes have to observe the parts of the sky that does not have cloud cover. Ie if cloudy in the north, then observe the south, and adjust your chosen targets to suit the availability of clear skys and the weather conditions.

So my advice is you can observe in most weeks, but it maybe limited to short sessions. Or sessions of going for what's available target wise and making the best of what part of the sky in clear.Therefore IMO you need a set up that can be ready for action in a matter of a few minutesband flexible on your viewing target list.. And that way you can dive in and out of the weather and cloud conditions and at least get observing sessions in, but maybe limited in the time scale and wanted targets.  But as they say the best scope in the one that is used☺

[Macavity]

I often wake to "custard skies" which result (mostly) from speading
Vapour / contrails from overnight aircraft flights? I seem to be in a 
Lee-Wave re. spontaneous creation of clouds between a hill top and
the coast? But maybe I'm just looking for any excuses. 
(Air traffic has increased 10x in my observing years)

I seem to remember the "brilliant blue" skies in my youth though?
Fluffy yellow clouds with HARD ages (it's related to moisture) so it
was easier to judge what the likely clarity would be like.

[bejay1957]

Its easy to generalize when local effects will cloud (pun intended!) perceptions - in other threads I have mentioned the impact locally of Didcot power station from the late 1960s until the A station was decommissioned in 2013...

Hard to find or establish cloud data, but certainly feel that man-made output of various kinds does impact.  In terms of aircraft, remember how clear the skies were with no aircraft were flying during the Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruptions and the alleged ash cloud - I haven't seen clear skies like that since I was a nipper.

[Stu]

My entirely subjective and unscientific opinion is that, yes, it is getting cloudier.

[PeterW]

I agree about the plane ash... perfect blue skies! We are also not helped by the profusion of lights in our crowded island.

weather trends normally need 15year averages to make out trends... the annual variation making with shorter intervals less informative.

 

Peter

[Peter Drew]

With no better data than my ageing memory I get the impression at least, that during recent years it has been not only cloudier but also not as dark in our area. The latter, I'm convinced is due to dispersed con trails giving a medium that can not only reflect ground based light pollution but also dim astronomical objects by reducing the transparency. I can get more and better quality obseving in two weeks in Tenerife than months here in the UK despite being in an urban situation. The night sky is black rather than our local grey and it is rare to see a con trail.   

[cloudsweeper]

I hadn't noticed really since I've only been into astronomy for about a year. But if it is getting cloudier, there are still plenty of windows of opportunity!

Doug.

[bejay1957]

While not recording stargazing observing nights, I do have my weather observations.

From my immediately available records of 2005-2015, I have the following numbers for evenings/nights with fully clear skies at the time of evening observation (done sometime between 20:00 and 21:00) - no guarantee that it was either clear or cloudy during the subsequent night hours..

Year	# Clear Nights
2005	57
2006	57
2007	78
2008	58
2009	54
2010	70
2011	67
2012	87
2013	65
2014	83
2015	80

 

[ronin]

Owing to our weather it is likely difficult to specify. Even if the number went up then it is: When did they occur, if every day in June was clear it might make 30 but the June nights are short and often never really dark.

In effect if the summer was less cloudy but the winter more cloudy we would likely dismiss the Summer nights then consider the winter ones and say it is cloudier.

As with any UK weather it matters on where you are, if I recall Devon is actually the second cloudiest/wettest county in England, Somerset is pretty close and in general all the West gets cloud and rain to a greater degree. There is also local differences, I for 2 locations one North of me and one South, each about a 20 mile trip, and they can easily turn up different results.

Does anywhere record daily weather status and put it on-line for what would be a person local area - not Somerset but say Taunton, Barnstable, etc. That is the sort of daa you need to analyse.

I find it easier to simply wait until the opertunity occurs and take advantage of it. I cannot do much about it, but owning a scope ahs really increased my knowledge of our weather patterns and general climatic parameters. Must go learn the assorted cloud types one day.

I would say it appears to be cloudier, but appearances can be deceiving as they say.

[Mak the Night]

14 hours ago, Knight of Clear Skies said:

I apologize in advance for bringing data to a cloud thread.

It's difficult to say, the position of the jetstream has a huge effect on the weather we receive and the natural variance is very high. That said, climate change may well be at work. Here's a graph of UK rainfall since 1910:

As you can see, the year-on-year values are all over the place but the trend line is upwards.

On the other hand, annual sunshine has been increasing:

Sunshine hours aren't necessarily a great proxy value for cloud cover, for example less cloud in Summer has a disproportionately high effect. Digging more into the seasonal data the trend since the 1970s is for more sunshine in Autumn, Winter and Spring, so presumably more clear nights as well. The UK may be getting a little less cloudy on the whole but any trend is swamped by year-on-year variation and local weather. Even in a clearer-than-average year there is no guarantee anyone in a particular location would notice the difference.

In short, the UK is cloudy, a consequence of getting most of our weather from the Atlantic.

Interesting data, only I don't see any data sets for the frequency of flares, Oxford bags or bell bottoms. I'm sure there's connection. Somewhere.

[alan potts]

Please feel free to send us some rain, we really could use it. On a more serious note I find that the weather used to be very changable and with the wind can be clear one moment and cloudy the next, here the weathe most of the time is much slower moving.

Alan

[Astro Imp]

This Autumn I am sure my area of Lincs has had more than its fair share of cloud cover. I spend a lot (too much) time reading the observing reports on the forum and often think I must have been a really bad boy in a former life to be missing out so often. It is now over three weeks since a good night. 

[Stub Mandrel]

Climate change should mean more cloud due to greater evaporation over the Atlantic.

But it's all my fault for getting into this two years ago, perhaps I should give up astro and break the curse for you poor souls?

[spaceboy]

Probably half of it isn't natural cloud anyway. Budget flights here there and everywhere leaving contrails all over the place.......

TBH I'm in the process of downsizing my kit as it seems a never ending battle with cloud and rain. Even then when it's clear I swear to god the jet stream sits directly over my garden. If it isn't mother nature fighting me it's council or neighbours need to light the place up like a football stadium.

[Mak the Night]

Budget flights full of people wearing flared trousers no doubt. 

[mdstuart]

My records do not indicate any significant change in cloud levels over the last ten years here in Bristol.

I record the cloud cover three times a day. The above shows the average figures for each of the last 10 years for clear records. So on average, in a thirty day month I record the cloud level ninety times and on average it is clear on about 15 so about 17% of the time.

So if you need a clear sky, no moon, a clear diary, not to be too tired due to more than two previously clear nights that works out about two nights a month observing at best, so make the most of those nights...

Mark

[Stub Mandrel]

I wonder if something subtler is happening?

For the second night in a row it was clear soon after dusk, but it rapidly became misty and then a broken layer of cloud came in.

I keep seeing this effect :-(

[matt-c]

Not to hijack the thread but does any one have data showing if those clear nights occur with a half to full moon? I swear the only time it's clear here the moon is high and bright.