Weather : finale demise !

[cotterless45]

Well here’s the question.

In middle England we’ve been subject to clouds . The forecasters give favourable south and dire north . We are caught in the middle . Awaiting a clean cold front for stable air and clear skies . 

Last year I managed 25 observing sessions as compared to +100 up to 10 years ago . 

Anyone else caught in a trap ?

Nick.

[Cjg]

Not caught in a trap, but definitely many less opportunities to observe in recent years than when I first joined Norwich Astro and regularly visited Seething Observatory each Friday.  The weather is much less settled nowadays, I think.

[Paz]

I've only been observing for 8 or so years and the weather has always been rubbish  so long spells of unrelenting cloud is normal to me.

I'm in the Midlands and we have a microclimate where I live where very often it is blue skies in the morning, cloudy by late morning, clear early evening and cloudy soon after dark. So usually solar is best done in the morning and night time observing is best done early evening.

[PeterCPC]

1 hour ago, cotterless45 said:

The forecasters give favourable south

I have yet to see it. 100% cloud cover every day.

[SteveNickolls]

I've been keeping records of my observing/imaging for the past eleven and seven seasons respectively. I try to get out observing/imaging whenever I can and so apart from being ill or unable to get outside due to another social commitment the numbers reflect the opportunities here in the suburbs of Nottingham. We can have weeks of poor skies but relish the chance to use binoculars to capture half an hour of observing if conditions allow. In one of last year's Sky at Night Magazine, I think the March issue there was an article quoting figures on the number of sessions with various set up's, the outcome being that having an observatory or performing remote imaging were the better options for increasing opportunities. Of course if you are at work or have to get up early the next day your opportunities are going to be a trade off, there are also other demands on time that can mean you miss an otherwise decent night.

I have no observatory but have over the years taken more to binocular observation of the sky and have worked my imaging set up to be lightweight, portable and quick to set up/take down and controllable from indoors. Unless on holiday I don't travel far to observe or image. When conditions aren't ideal for DSO imaging I will try imaging the Moon and this year intend to branch out to try solar imaging in the daytime all to get the most out of the opportunities that present themselves. One aspect of the hobby that can be enjoyed virtually all year round and not recorded below is the detection of meteors using the back scatter provided from objects caught in the radar radiation from GRAVES near Dijon, France. With a home built antenna and software defined radio device such as the FunCube hours of interest can be had.

Very interested to hear the views and experiences of others.

Cheers,

Steve

                                                                                                                 Comparison Monthly Observations (Seasons 2012-2013 to 2022-2023)

Year	Month
	J	J	A	S	O	N	D	J	F	M	A	M	Total	Av
12-13	1	3	4	5	7	4	6	6	4	2	0	0	42	3.5
13-14	3	4	9	8	8	7	6	4	4	2	2	3	60	5
14-15	0	2	9	9	6	8	10	9	5	5	7	3	73	6.1
15-16	5	2	7	11	10	10	8	5	6	5	4	3	76	6.3
16-17	2	2	6	6	4	3	3	4	4	4	5	3	46	3.8
17-18	3	1	13	8	7	10	6	11	5	3	6	9	82	6.8
18-19	10	7	11	12	7	9	14	15	15	5	5	4	114	9.5
19-20	0	5	13	13	8	9	4	6	7	8	8	7	88	7.3
20-21	4	8	5	11	7	9	10	6	8	6	10	3	87	7.25
21-22	4	7	6	9	5	9	7	12	7	8	8	4	86	7.17
22-23	8	6	16	5	11	8	11	11	9	3
Total

 

                                                                                                                                Monthly Imaging Sessions (Seasons 2016-17 to 2022-2023)

Month	Number of Telescope/DSLR and Lens/DSLR Imaging                       Sessions
	16-17	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	22-23
June	2	1	1	0	0	1	2
July	1	1	3	0	1	5	0
August	6	7	8	5	2	2	11
Sept	3	6	4	8	9	5	2
Oct	2	2	5	2	2	0	4
Nov	1	2	4	0	3	2	5
Dec	3	4	5’	1	5	2	6
Jan	1	4	6	4	3	10	7
Feb	0	1	3	4	5	2	5
Mar	4	1	1	3	0	4	2
April	5	2	1	4	3	4
May	2	3	3	1	0	5
Total	30	34	44	32	33	42	44
Sessions/ Month	30/12= 2.5 pm	34/12 = 2.83 pm	44/12= 3.7 pm	32/12 = 2.7 pm	33/12 = 2.75 pm	42/12= 3.5 pm

Edited March 27 by SteveNickolls

[SteveNickolls]

Yes it was the March 2022 edition of the Sky at Night magazine and they created a 'Drake equation' to try to estimate the number of 'productive nights per year'.

N=Y.f_c.f_m.f_fr.f_bw.f_bt.f_e

Where-

N=number of productive nights per year

Y=total nights in a year (365 or 366 or 365.25?)

f_c=fraction of clear nights

f_m=fraction of nights that are Moon-free

f_fr=fraction of free nights

f_bw=fraction of nights with bearable wind

f_bt=fraction of nights with bearable temperature

f_e=fraction of time that all equipment works properly

There's a few holes in this but the article went on to give values expected for various 'set ups'-

 

The article suggested four levels of activity as having different values for each function-for portable visual, portable imaging, permanent imaging and remote imaging.

And a likely estimate for the number of nights spent for each-

Activity	Number of nights in a year
Portable visual	50
Portable imaging	14
Permanent imaging	43
Remote imaging	148

 

 

 

[ScouseSpaceCadet]

On 27/03/2023 at 12:23, cotterless45 said:

Well here’s the question.

In middle England we’ve been subject to clouds . The forecasters give favourable south and dire north . We are caught in the middle . Awaiting a clean cold front for stable air and clear skies . 

Last year I managed 25 observing sessions as compared to +100 up to 10 years ago . 

Anyone else caught in a trap ?

Nick.

This is only my fourth winter in the hobby but definitely the worst. Clouds and more clouds since Christmas up here in the damp northwest.

I don't have my log book to hand but during Jan, Feb and March I've probably had a scope out once and binoculars twice. 🙄

Edited March 29 by ScouseSpaceCadet

[Moonlit Knight]

Well it’s definitely more cloudy than it used to be, and we can expect that to get worse. That said I have had a good season, got out loads of times, twice this week. I work from home and so can get my gear set up early and grab an hour early doors, which opens up lots of opportunities. I have one scope, 4 inch doublet with no cool down time to speak of, so that increases opportunities too. I sold my last dob because of all the issues you expect, cool time being a major consideration. I got sick of a clear sky becoming cloudy while waiting for everything to cool down and then bringing everything inside again. With my current outfit I manage around 50 sessions a year.

I love refractors 🔭 

[woldsman]

On 27/03/2023 at 13:33, SteveNickolls said:

I've been keeping records of my observing/imaging for the past eleven and seven seasons respectively. I try to get out observing/imaging whenever I can and so apart from being ill or unable to get outside due to another social commitment the numbers reflect the opportunities here in the suburbs of Nottingham. We can have weeks of poor skies but relish the chance to use binoculars to capture half an hour of observing if conditions allow. In one of last year's Sky at Night Magazine, I think the March issue there was an article quoting figures on the number of sessions with various set up's, the outcome being that having an observatory or performing remote imaging were the better options for increasing opportunities. Of course if you are at work or have to get up early the next day your opportunities are going to be a trade off, there are also other demands on time that can mean you miss an otherwise decent night.

I have no observatory but have over the years taken more to binocular observation of the sky and have worked my imaging set up to be lightweight, portable and quick to set up/take down and controllable from indoors. Unless on holiday I don't travel far to observe or image. When conditions aren't ideal for DSO imaging I will try imaging the Moon and this year intend to branch out to try solar imaging in the daytime all to get the most out of the opportunities that present themselves. One aspect of the hobby that can be enjoyed virtually all year round and not recorded below is the detection of meteors using the back scatter provided from objects caught in the radar radiation from GRAVES near Dijon, France. With a home built antenna and software defined radio device such as the FunCube hours of interest can be had.

Very interested to hear the views and experiences of others.

Cheers,

Steve

                                                                                                                 Comparison Monthly Observations (Seasons 2012-2013 to 2022-2023)

Year	Month
	J	J	A	S	O	N	D	J	F	M	A	M	Total	Av
12-13	1	3	4	5	7	4	6	6	4	2	0	0	42	3.5
13-14	3	4	9	8	8	7	6	4	4	2	2	3	60	5
14-15	0	2	9	9	6	8	10	9	5	5	7	3	73	6.1
15-16	5	2	7	11	10	10	8	5	6	5	4	3	76	6.3
16-17	2	2	6	6	4	3	3	4	4	4	5	3	46	3.8
17-18	3	1	13	8	7	10	6	11	5	3	6	9	82	6.8
18-19	10	7	11	12	7	9	14	15	15	5	5	4	114	9.5
19-20	0	5	13	13	8	9	4	6	7	8	8	7	88	7.3
20-21	4	8	5	11	7	9	10	6	8	6	10	3	87	7.25
21-22	4	7	6	9	5	9	7	12	7	8	8	4	86	7.17
22-23	8	6	16	5	11	8	11	11	9	3
Total

 

                                                                                                                                Monthly Imaging Sessions (Seasons 2016-17 to 2022-2023)

Month	Number of Telescope/DSLR and Lens/DSLR Imaging                       Sessions
	16-17	17-18	18-19	19-20	20-21	21-22	22-23
June	2	1	1	0	0	1	2
July	1	1	3	0	1	5	0
August	6	7	8	5	2	2	11
Sept	3	6	4	8	9	5	2
Oct	2	2	5	2	2	0	4
Nov	1	2	4	0	3	2	5
Dec	3	4	5’	1	5	2	6
Jan	1	4	6	4	3	10	7
Feb	0	1	3	4	5	2	5
Mar	4	1	1	3	0	4	2
April	5	2	1	4	3	4
May	2	3	3	1	0	5
Total	30	34	44	32	33	42	44
Sessions/ Month	30/12= 2.5 pm	34/12 = 2.83 pm	44/12= 3.7 pm	32/12 = 2.7 pm	33/12 = 2.75 pm	42/12= 3.5 pm

This study, published in 2012 concluded that the UK has "an average yearly cloud-free probability of 21.3% with maximum and minimum monthly mean probabilities of 33.3% and 12.9% in November and March"   https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2150704X.2012.744486  The study, however, analysed days rather than nights.  Your data for 2012/13-2022/23 indicates 754 clear nights out of 3,650 which is 20.7%. For November, you record 78/300 = 26% and for March you record 48/310 = 15.5% . The study confirms that the South and East are less cloudy than the North and West, so it looks like your data are consistent with the study. If so, the null hypothesis of no change can't be rejected.

[conspicuity]

As a 'portable imaging' practitioner I was shocked to see the estimate of 14 (14😨!!!) productive nights per year. 

It reminded me of the occasion when a friend, who had been a professional astronomer, discovered my hobby. He just rolled his eyes and said 'You're mad'.  Three clear nights in the last two months; he may be right.

[Elp]

Imaging and visual mileages will vary as for visual you can get away with a few minutes or an hour or two here and there. Imaging for me isn't worth doing unless there's at least 3-4 hours of clear sky, so any 10pc forecast usually won't do for me either. Typically I've been completing an image every 1-2 months, but this year I've only managed 1 and the last session was in the last week in Feb, it's been high wind constantly since which obviously brings the cloud with it. The latest aurora night was actually clear after 1am but I don't like setting up so late so missed a great opportunity, it was also a windy night so probably couldn't anyway. It's a sad joke really, I don't think it'll get better until mid-late May.

Oh, and I did lose a few sessions due to the latest zwo asiair updates which haven't helped.

Edited March 29 by Elp

[cajen2]

You have to add partially cloudy nights to strictly visual opportunities. Some of my best sessions have been during cloud dodging - often just turning the scope to a clear patch and seeing what there is.

[Mr Spock]

We're caught in a trap. I can't walk out. Because I see too much cloud, maybe.

[Space Hopper]

Just the one session with the scope, and a couple of binocular sessions at short notice as well, so far this year for me.

The other (handful) of semi / clear nights we've had i've either been at work, or in bed before an early (could be as early as 02:30) alarm call the next morning.

A miserable start to 2023 for me.

 

[russ]

On 27/03/2023 at 12:23, cotterless45 said:

Well here’s the question.

In middle England we’ve been subject to clouds . The forecasters give favourable south and dire north . We are caught in the middle . Awaiting a clean cold front for stable air and clear skies . 

Last year I managed 25 observing sessions as compared to +100 up to 10 years ago . 

Anyone else caught in a trap ?

Nick.

There is nothing favourable happening down south. It is endless cloud, wind and rain. One of the worst starts to a year i can remember. And the forecast for the next two weeks is dire. But there is a drought warning in place. 

[DaveS]

Rubbish weather here on the south west coast, just been fog and rain for the last few days, and nothing clear for the foreseeable.

[azrabella]

Even worse in S. Wales. Two sessions since Christmas. What did Private Frazer say..."Doomed. We're all doomed".

[fwm891]

Echo @azrabella as just a little further east near Hereford rain, rain and wait - more rain... weeks of it!

[Space Hopper]

1 hour ago, azrabella said:

Even worse in S. Wales. Two sessions since Christmas. What did Private Frazer say..."Doomed. We're all doomed".

I think he was right.......

[Ratlet]

As it's my first year, I've never known such good Stargazing.

Seriously though, I survived winter by being an astronomical scavenger.  Learning that the 20 minutes whilst the chips were in the oven was usually clear and taking every opportunity to cook dinner.

[josefk]

9 hours ago, Ratlet said:

As it's my first year, I've never known such good Stargazing.

Seriously though, I survived winter by being an astronomical scavenger.  Learning that the 20 minutes whilst the chips were in the oven was usually clear and taking every opportunity to cook dinner.

i also scavenge "here and there" with a life saving lightweight set-up. Strictly post chips though otherwise there's a good chance i would have burnt the house down by now! 😂

[Ratlet]

25 minutes ago, josefk said:

i also scavenge "here and there" with a life saving lightweight set-up. Strictly post chips though otherwise there's a good chance i would have burnt the house down by now! 😂

"Hey Google, set a 15 minute, 16 minute, 17 minute, 18 minute, 19 minute and 20 minute timer and phone the fire brigade in 25 minutes."

[doublevodka]

11 hours ago, azrabella said:

Even worse in S. Wales. Two sessions since Christmas. What did Private Frazer say..."Doomed. We're all doomed".

Another from South Wales here, it's been a tough year! Sometimes makes me glad I'm visual only though as can nip out if the weather breaks

10 hours ago, Ratlet said:

As it's my first year, I've never known such good Stargazing.

Seriously though, I survived winter by being an astronomical scavenger.  Learning that the 20 minutes whilst the chips were in the oven was usually clear and taking every opportunity to cook dinner.

A proper clear night with good seeing is going to blow your socks off then 👍 This year has been clouds or average seeing at best for me, your approach is spot on though, take the opportunities when you can (just try not to burn the chips)

[Saganite]

Four good long sessions in January and a handful of very short sessions since, the latter not worth recording.  I do now have a Pulsar dome, installed last November, which has made things easier for short sessions, but it has been dire for observing so far this year.

[SteveNickolls]

16 hours ago, woldsman said:

This study, published in 2012 concluded that the UK has "an average yearly cloud-free probability of 21.3% with maximum and minimum monthly mean probabilities of 33.3% and 12.9% in November and March"   https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2150704X.2012.744486 

Interesting summary but I can't afford to buy the full article, where I live that's around 8 CME's ,that's 6 Chinese MEal equivalents he, he.-

Cheers,
Steve