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How wrong can a forecast be?!

kerrylewis

By kerrylewis
in The Astro Lounge

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hippie

hippie

Posted
Posted

Dum weather forecast cant even get it right for the day ahead down here on the south coast often saying clear night tonight,  Yet I Can't see a glimmer of a star anywhere Grrrrrrr!.  :confused: .

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kerrylewis

kerrylewis

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The BBC TV forecast is often very accurate in predicting cloud cover BUT it seems only when the the weather patterns are fairly stable and predictable. For example when we getting those frequent lows coming in from the Atlantic, the clear bits in between were quite accurately forecast. Then when we get a period like recently it seems to be that the weather patterns are changing quite a bit and are therefore more difficult to forecast even with their huge computers etc

I'm no weather expert - just my perception.

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Luke

Luke

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I think we had a similar thing our way, Kerry, we're not too far from you. It was cloudy when it was supposed to be clear last night, though I was tired so I didn't hang about to see if the clouds did eventually part. And I can't be up to silly o'clock with work the next day.

I am thinking these days that the problem is not so much how few clear nights (and days) we get, it's knowing when we are going to get them. Good luck for some predictable clear skies soon!

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JamesF

JamesF

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I find the best way to judge what it's going to be like is to look at the satellite images from sat24.  If I see large amounts of cloud cover racing eastwards over Ireland I tend to ignore forecasts of clear sky.

James

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barkis

barkis

Posted
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I find the 24 hour maps forecasts for West Cumbria quite unreliable.

I'm not sure how accurate local area forecasts  can be, but not very is my conclusion.

They managed to forecast a Lull for the D Day landings, but many a Golf round has ended with me getting soaked.

The forecast was supposedly for a dry day.

Quite unacceptable in my view, considering the Billions spent on the technology for forecasting earths  weather.

I think they are more accurate on Titans weather predictions :grin:.

Ron.

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Dave_D

Dave_D

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I find the best way to judge what it's going to be like is to look at the satellite images from sat24.  If I see large amounts of cloud cover racing eastwards over Ireland I tend to ignore forecasts of clear sky.

James

Same here, i never trust forecasts.

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cotterless45

cotterless45

Posted
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Certainly is a struggle. If there's any hint of observing, I set up the mount and put a scope cover over it.

Then it's a waiting game. Early this morning was lovely and clear, got polar aligned, 3 star aligned, looked up and complete wild ,fast moving ,lit up clouds of doom. Gave it an hour to clear, which it did.

Hopefully with the forecast (!) of colder weather coming , we might be lucky.

What really niggles me is these same gurus are preaching climate change over longer periods of time. Perhaps they should get a grip of the here and now !

Nick.

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JamesF

JamesF

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Hopefully with the forecast (!) of colder weather coming , we might be lucky.

Three weeks ago there was supposed to be a heatwave for the rest of April and May.  I wonder what happened to that?

James

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