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Sizeable solar flare - possible auroras

Kp6

By Kp6
in The Astro Lounge

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Kp6

Kp6

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I've been keeping an eye on solar activity over the weekend, Old sol has definitely kicked it up a few gears. At 1740 there was an M6 solar flare, One of the largest flares of this solar cycle.

This just in from spaceweather.com in the last 10 minutes.

SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot 1158 has just unleashed the strongest solar flare of the year, an M6.6-category blast @ 1738 UT on Feb. 13th. The eruption appears to have launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. It also produced a loud blast of radio emissions heard in shortwave receivers around the dayside of our planet. Stay tuned for updates!

We have a coronal mass ejection on route. :)

I am expecting some auroral activity around Wednesday, how far south the aurora might travel I don't know as yet. I'll need to wait a few more hours for Nasa to release the images so I can see exactly how much matter this solar flare has fired but what is confirmed is that this one is squarely directed towards earth.

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Kp6

Kp6

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How long before a CME reaches earth?

It varies, I think the fastest recorded travelling time for a CME was under 20 hours but typically it is between 30-70 hours travelling time. This particular CME could arrive late on Tuesday or more likely on Wednesday.

Can someone arrange an aurora for 4 March please? I'm taking my parents on an aurora flight on their golden wedding anniversary!

Helen

Hi Helen, I believe that a solar wind stream from a coronal hole should pass earth around the 3-4th March sparking the aurora over higher latitudes, I hope your folks aren't let down and witness a nice display.

I look forward to reading more when you know more.

:)

Doubt we'll get anything as far south as me - but you never know ;)

Ant

I wouldn't write it off so quickly, We have had UK wide aurora from M-class events in the past. I'll know a bit more once I see the lasco images of this CME.

Sorry for my ignorance but is this something that we can see in the night sky?

Yes, it is one of the most breathtaking sights to be seen in the night sky.

Here's an image that one of the forum members captured recently of the northern lights hiding behind the clouds.

IMG_2932flickr-1.jpg

by Stuart Watt - Saturn5

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StarryEyes

StarryEyes

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Cool, Thanks.

So is it possible to see this from the UK?

I always thought that the northern lights was something different, I didn't realise it was to do with solar activity.

Is it possible that I could have seen the northern lights through a plane window whilst on a flight back to the UK from America. I saw something but couldn't quite work out what it was, and always wondered if it was that.

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Kp6

Kp6

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Slightly disappointing news I'm afraid.

Looking at the Lasco C3 satellite imagery, the CME of interest is very faint indeed. This minimises the chances of strong mid-latitude aurora from this particular event.

I wouldn't dismiss it completely for all UK latitudes. Anyone north of 56N should see signs of some kind of geomagnetic disruption caused by this CME within the next 36-48 hours, on it's arrival it should accompany a weak coronal hole wind stream slightly enhancing the earth effects further.

Over the course of today (up to 2pm), there have been 4 solar flares all C class with the highest measuring C9.4 (there is a 5th ongoing as of 225pm, currently C7). The baseline solar flux level has been elevated for quite some time as well. This is another sign of heightened solar activity, It also means the chances of more M-class flares occurring in the not too distant future is significant.

I'll keep you updated.

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Kp6

Kp6

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In the last 90 minutes the sun has shot a major solar flare measuring X2.2 on the x-ray flux. This is (by a country mile) the largest flare of solar cycle 24, it is also the largest flare recorded since December 2006.

It is not known yet how much matter this solar flare has ejected, what is known at this stage is the culprit for the activity once again was AR1158, A large sunspot responsible for multiple solar flares including the M6 event on Sunday evening which started this topic.

I am expecting 'possible' mid-latitude auroras on Tuesday night or possibly as late as Wednesday from the CME associated with the M6 flare.

Fresh news hot off the press in the last few seconds reports the X2 flare appears to have shot a FULL HALO CME. It looks to be a right 'doozy' with a considerable amount of plasma ejected!

Expect mid-latitude aurora from this CME!!!!!

link to movie of the explosion (side on view from Nasa's stereo :)

It's hard to say exactly when 'this' one will arrive but 'CME bearing' X-class flares are normally quite quick. 24-36 hours likely, That would mean we should have an extended period of disruptive geomagnetic activity starting as early as tonight (15/11) and continuing through Thursday night.

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Kp6

Kp6

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This all sounds very exciting!!

Wish I didn't live near birmingam though, I doubt I'd see much here.

Sorry I didn't clarify, If there is indeed a full halo CME on route to earth as a result of this major flare, 'overhead' auroral activity is a very strong possibility across Scotland and possibly even the northern counties of England once it arrives.

This means that at locations such as Birmingham, the Midlands, Southern Ireland and north Wales, Aurora should become visible low on the northern horizon provided that the view to the north is not light polluted or cloudy.

Nothing of course is for certain until the horse rides home so to speak.

Be sure to check out http://www.spaceweather.com/ for updates to this developing situation, clearer imagery of the CME and predicted earth effects in the hours ahead.

I should give a mention and thanks to Kevin VE3EN at solarcycle24.com for compiling the 'stereo b' movie above from stills. :)

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brianb

brianb

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If there is indeed a full halo CME on route to earth as a result of this major flare, 'overhead' auroral activity is a very strong possibility across Scotland and possibly even the northern counties of England once it arrives.

Unfortunately the Moon isn't going to help, even if the cloud permits ...

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Kp6

Kp6

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Now that we aware of several incoming 'CMEs' we need to wait for their arrival before auroral activity begins. This has not happened yet but the show should start within the next 24 hours.

We will get a short period of notice (circa 1 hour) before the arrival of a CME as Nasa's ace satellite takes solar wind measurements 'upstream' by about 1 million miles.

Below is a forecast map of the predicted location of the aurora using the ace satellite data. The image updates every couple of minutes but you will need to reload this web page.

SvaltrackII.png

Kjell Henriksen Observatory

An alternative that also uses ace satellite data to present a forecast map. (updates every 20-30 minutes).

This is an example! Please read below for explanation... sorry!!!

World_7.png

University of Alaska

With the second forecast map, you may notice a single green line circling the thicker band, This represents where aurora should be visible on the horizon.

***UPDATE***

I have been slightly suspicious of the second forecast map over the course of the last few hours, mainly because the aurora position has not changed, With a bit of digging around I have discovered that the website that supply's the image above uses complicated code to refresh the image, this means that the second forecast map will NOT update. You will need to visit the web page directly to see the updated version.

Alaska University

The one and only reason I originally added the second map was to illustrate the location for horizon aurora viewing. I recommend using the first forecast map (which is reliable) and estimating a distance of 400 miles south of the auroral band to ascertain the horizon view. Meanwhile, I will change the 2nd forecast map using the websites code to illustrate where I think the aurora could end up during the storm's peak. (kp6-kp7)

The image below shows the current location of the northern lights. Red through to yellow colours represents the aurora, the blue region only represents the sample size taken by the satellite and not auroral activity.

Unlike the 2 images above, this is not a forecast.

Typically this will update every 30 minutes or less.

poes_latest240_europe.gif

NOAA

Tomorrows weather forecast looks pretty good for most of the UK. As brianb mentioned, the full moon will be a menace, but I have watched the northern lights under moonlight before. It won't stop me from going out for a look. :)

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