Sizeable solar flare - possible auroras

[Kp6]

KP, is the aurora borealis one of your favourite astronomical interests?

huh, what gives you that impression?

This in from the Noaa space weather prediction centre within the last five minutes in response to the disturbance recorded on the ace satellite.

February 17, 2011 -- The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours. Back at the Sun, Region 1158 is still hot and fast-growing, Region 1161 is producing small flares.

Watch Today's Space Weather for the most recent activity.

G1 = KP5. G2 = KP6 and G3 = KP7. more info here

[Pakmoto]

It's visible here in Teesside, through the clouds there is light green haze

Can't believe it's cloudy, it's right above our heads

[Psychobilly]

when the clouds so thick that you cant even see the full moon then it's a real !"£$%^&* .... (nuisance)

Billy...

[LukeSkywatcher]

So do you think this solar storm will have any effect on electricity supply,communications etc etc?

I hear it is a rather LARGE solar storm headed our way.

[Kp6]

So do you think this solar storm will have any effect on electricity supply,communications etc etc?

I hear it is a rather LARGE solar storm headed our way.

Na, I doubt it very much. In the last decade we have experienced 4 or maybe 5 'mega storms', ones which measure kp9 on the Richter scale of geomagnetic activity.

From those events there were hardly any reports of damage, other than interference to radio communications and minor issues with satellite data.

Quite frankly I would be shocked if the incoming CME's harboured enough energy to cause a KP9 storm.

KP5 likely, KP6 possible and KP7 would be a nice outcome.

We have had dozens of KP7 geomagnetic storms in the last decade, no damage reported whatsoever.

[LukeSkywatcher]

I read that to see the aurora here in Dublin (52 degrees N) would take a KP9. It happened a few yrs ago. My nephew and his dad saw it .

I was expecting my electricity to go off tonight, so i had candles at the ready.

[jonathan]

Completely clouded over here for the past two nights, hmph!

[Kp6]

I read that to see the aurora here in Dublin (52 degrees N) would take a KP9. It happened a few yrs ago. My nephew and his dad saw it .

I was expecting my electricity to go off tonight, so i had candles at the ready.

I think the last kp9 storm happened on the 29th October 2003. KP8 would be sufficent for overhead aurora in Dublin.

I wouldn't worry too much about the leccy going off in the coming days (unless you haven't paid your bill!)

There have been very large solar storms in the past that have caused smaller regional grids to 'trip', particularly in North America and the far north of Europe.

This would cause a blackout locally but it would have been purely a temporary measure to protect the grid from power surges. Damage would be null or negligible at most.

I'm sure most of you have heard about the Quebec grid going down during a mega storm in 1989. I think after this event the utility companies took notice and implemented precautions against these super solar storms.

A few days prior to the Quebec event there there several large solar flares, the largest measuring X15. wiki + nasa

People always speak about 'The Carrington event', A mega solar storm that occurred in 1859, thought to be the largest solar storm known to have struck our planet during the modern age. Solar scientists believe that an event of this magnitude could occur once every 500 years. wiki + nasa

The incoming CME's that are due to hit us very soon bare absolutely nothing in comparison to either the 1989 event or the 1859 event.

On the subject of the incoming CME's... where the heck are they?!!! The ace satellite recorded a slight blip around 7pm but I doubt that could have been one of the CME's, the disturbance that ensued was negligible.

[LukeSkywatcher]

2003 sounds about right for the northern lights that my nephew saw. It takes a kp9 storm to be visible from 52 degrees north.

[Nexus 6]

Well if it was possible to see anything from my location over the past 7 hours I had no chance due to the weather, its ruined yet another astronomical standout moment for me and I guess for many others

[Kp6]

2003 sounds about right for the northern lights that my nephew saw. It takes a kp9 storm to be visible from 52 degrees north.

ok

Well if it was possible to see anything from my location over the past 7 hours I had no chance due to the weather, its ruined yet another astronomical standout moment for me and I guess for many others

There are 2 respectable sources stating they believe the CME's have missed earth. This would be an unprecedented first for me in over 5 years of taking an interest on the subject. We had 3 full halo CME's squarely directed toward earth. The majority of reliable sources including Nasa and Noaa still think the CME's were definitely earthbound and have not arrived yet. I now believe all 3 will arrive at once, and it's still to happen.

If the latter is the case, it's incredible to think that the first eruption has been travelling earth bound for over 107 hours. I don't ever recall a CME taking this length of time to reach our planet.

It will be interesting, whatever the outcome.

[Nexus 6]

Hi Kp6, is there a relivance to the time taken for one to arrive?

[Glen]

hold on to your *** fred.. could get a little rough.

Thanks Kp6 for all the info,

Regards

Glen

[Kp6]

Hi Kp6, is there a relivance to the time taken for one to arrive?

Hi Alan, generally speaking, the sun can erupt incredibly slow cme's less than 20km/s or fast cme's, quicker than 2000km/s. A cme will either speed up or slow down to match the velocity of the solar wind. Sometimes, the most ferocious of solar eruptions can overcome the restrictive solar wind and strike our planet at an incredibly fast pace (1000km/s+) The result of this would be a higher level of disruptive geomagnetic activity.

The largest CME en route to earth (caused by the X2 flare) has an estimated speed of around 700km/s, in the broad scale of things this is quite a slow speed for an X-class eruption.

On a typical quiet day the solar wind will travel at between 300 and 500 km/s.

[Kp6]

A CME has hit the ace satellite at 1245am folks!!!!!

The effects should reach earth around 145am. The magnetometer should show the disruption when it arrives.

We need one more element in place before the aurora will travel southwards, that is the Bz component of the magnetic field.

We need this to turn southwards (negative polarity), or even just equalize closer to a neutral polarity (zero reading). It will do this eventually, but for the UK to see aurora, it will need to happen soon before dawn!

(the image is data from ace satellite, so what you see there is an hour or so away from occuring)

[Glen]

Granted but there's something about this one. it all to quiet..

[Kp6]

Granted but there's something about this one. it all to quiet..

It looks like our American friends might see the best of this one.

But you never know, Bz could jolt sharply south, whatever happens I'm out of luck tonight, there's too much cloud cover for miles around here. I've drove 6hrs north in the past to get out of the cloud and catch the aurora, it's too late to be doing that tonight!

For those stuck under the cloud there's always a chance that the geo-storm will continue into this evening UK time.

[Glen]

ARTIS @ SolarIMG

good site that i have been looking at for a while.

HTH

Glen

[Kp6]

Despite this current 'northward' facing polarity of the magnetic field, vivid aurora will currently be visible in places like Canada. Once the magnetic field tilts south, I'm certain it will, then aurora should become visible across the U.S border.

If this south tilting happens SOON then the UK might catch a glimpse in the next couple of hours.

BANG! There you go. Bz tilting sharp to the south. It looks like those of you in the UK (particularly the northern half of the isles) that have gaps in the cloud may see something after all. Bear in mind there's a 40-50 minute delay between the ace satellite and earth.

Planet earth has opened it's door

[Glen]

I can only say thanks for lurkers like me

[dogfish]

Certainly made this insomniac look out of the window (wall to wall cloud cover). Keep up the good work.

Martin

[Glen]

it seems to me we was in the middle of (the best way i can put it) a smoke circle.

[Kp6]

Certainly made this insomniac look out of the window (wall to wall cloud cover). Keep up the good work.

Martin

Sods law that when something as elusive as the aurora pops along the cloud takes the front row seat!

it seems to me we was in the middle of (the best way i can put it) a smoke circle.

I guess you mean that we missed out due to the CME arriving a little late in the night???

The aurora is always most prevalent directly opposite the noon meridian, right now that's nearing the Eastern coasts of Canada and the USA, so they're in for a treat tonight.

I think the best that we in the UK can hope for is a persistence of geomagnetic storming beyond 8pm tonight. There is also the unknown as to whether this disturbance was caused by the first, second, or the third CME and also the distinct possibility that all three bunched up on route to earth.

Current aurora forecast for 50 minutes time is kp4.7 and continues to rise further. If any of our Canadian or northern U.S friends across the pond read this, get outside!

Edit: You mean the cloud Glen?, jeez I'm shattered, it's been a long week. Goodnight.

[Nexus 6]

Hi Kp6, great info again, still no chance of a look for us lot then, even if it was clear.

How dramatic it would have been to see an Aurora from my location

[Kp6]

Hi Kp6, great info again, still no chance of a look for us lot then, even if it was clear.

If there were clear skies right now, the aurora would be visible as far south as 55 or 56N based on kp5 conditions at 4am.

If the CME struck a a couple of hours earlier in the evening then yes there may have been a chance for horizon aurora around the humber. This geo-storm is still in the beginning stages. Unfortunately we pulled the short straw here, r.e timing.