Sizeable solar flare - possible auroras

[Nexus 6]

If there were clear skies right now, the aurora would be visible as far south as 55 or 56N based on kp5 conditions at 4am.

If the CME struck a a couple of hours earlier in the evening then yes there may have been a chance for horizon aurora around the humber. This geo-storm is still in the beginning stages. Unfortunately we pulled the short straw here, r.e timing.

that makes it even worse

well I guess with the Sun getting active again after its 11 year cycle we may see have other opportunities

[Glen]

looking realy good now kp6

[laser_jock99]

Well that's put the Kibosh on it then............an aurora forecast for tonight on every news program this morning. BBC1, ITV, C4, SKY even my local radio were talking about it. We're guaranteed to see nothing or be clouded out!

Always happens.

[JB80]

Lol, yeah I noticed that. And the whole time the special guest really said that not much was going to happen, the hosts were trying to hype it up as best they could.

Still all looks a bit quiet at the moment. At least for those not in the polar regions.

edit: Having said that we have just had another drop on the ACE sattelite.

[Kp6]

Having said that we have just had another drop on the ACE sattelite.

Yes it appears that you are spot on, the wind speed data shows a 'shock' thrust past 700km/s just after 1030am. This would imply a second CME impact. Conditions remain disruptive at 1500hrs.

So what caused disturbance number 1 and 2? We had 3 incoming CME's, with the last of the three resulting from the X2 flare. Has this one really arrived yet???

At 4am this morning I asked Dr Leif Svalgaard, a respected solar scientist, whether the first disturbance recorded at 1240am could be caused by CME number one (M6 flare),or perhaps all three at once, I also asked him what the potential duration of this geo-storm could be.

Leif's response..., "with so may flares and CMEs it is hard to say at this time, but I'm sure the events will be analyzed to death in the coming months. It is very likely that they are all bunched up."

It appears that they are not bunched up after all as there was a second hit at 1040am, 10 hours after hit number one, and he's unsure about duration due to multiple eruptions.

This illustrates that even the seasoned solar experts don't really know what's happening.

Below I will attach the current ace satellite data, solar wind speed (higher the better) and magnetic field (-ve is good).

Under that, the most relevant magnetometer for the UK, if storming persists then the magnetometer will show more disruptive readings as the aurora swings our way this evening.

Fingers crossed.

wind speed

magnetic field

Actual auroral activity imaged by NOAA satellites. Updated every 30 minutes or less (normally).

Also it is worth noting that there have been a considerable number of solar flares over the last 2-3 days, the largest (M6.6) occurring this morning, I'm unsure exactly what region this flare erupted from but it is quite likely to be from sunspot group 1161.

1161 is currently located at an earth facing position, I believe SDO might number this region as 1161/1162 as growth is substantial, A sure target for solar scopes. We will also get to see AR1158 (the culprit for the majority of the activity recently) departing very soon around the sun's western limb, I for one look forward to seeing some striking prominences.

[meteoriot]

If you have an iPhone then two apps are worth downloading for free called '3D sun' and 'NASA space weather' these give you lots of the info mentioned above and are updated constantly. It's possible they are available for other phones too but I cant confirm this myself.

Richard

[Byz1453]

George and Glen,

Thanks for keeping us so brilliantly updated.

I gave up in the early hours but you guys kept me hooked to my computer way beyond my bedtime with your knowledge, expertise and enthusiasm.

Fascinating stuff, thanks again

Kieran

[meteoriot]

Thank you for sharing all this info too. No doubt it will be cloudy here though, I'll be at my local observatory on an astronomy course. It's one of the highest points in my entire county so fingers crossed. (if it's even visible from here that is, I think I'm at 53 Degrees north)

[JB80]

Yes it appears that you are spot on, the wind speed data shows a 'shock' thrust past 700km/s just after 1030am. This would imply a second CME impact. Conditions remain disruptive at 1500hrs.

Yeah I have been watching it all day on and off, the wind speed and temperature both spiked up more than the intitial activity and th Bz line dropped south for an extended period for a lot of the afternoon having only just gone above recently.

Spaceweather.com confirms that the M6.6 was from 1161 too.

This is all quite fascinating really, thanks for all your updates.

[Kp6]

God I would really hate to be wrong here, but check out that jump in the wind speed recorded by the ace satellite in the last 3 minutes.

That is a classic sign of an incoming CME.

If so, this one is likely to be caused by the X2 flare.

I'm so sorry if I'm wrong and getting all your hopes up.

If this disturbance is caused by a CME then don't go rushing out to see if there's aurora, Much like what happened very early this morning you will need to wait until the ace data reports a south tilting magnetic field (Bz), Then about 50 minutes or an hour after that point the southerly extent of the aurora has strong potential to start expanding, causing a mid-latitude aurora.

Ace is still reporting a strong gust, it really does look like it could be a cme. It's the best time of the day for it to happen if you are in the uk.

[Helen]

KHO just jumped from kp2.7 to 3.3

Shame its raining!

Helen

[JB80]

Thats the biggest spike yet for the speed.

Maybe something will come from it.

[Kp6]

KHO just jumped from kp2.7 to 3.3

Shame its raining!

Helen

I know.. rubbish weather isnt it!

A quick look on sat 24 it seems that Ireland are best placed as a wave clears from the west. It will be at least 6 hours before western parts of the UK really see clearer conditions. There might be the occasional gap in the cloud for the north-eastern parts of the UK during the next 2-3 hours.

That damn Bz element (the magnetic graph) needs to take a nosedive, I'm sure it will.

In the next hour or two it will really become apparent just how much of an effect the incoming sneeze will have on our geomagnetic field.

Edit: watch the magnetomer begin to move away from the 'average' blue line, 50H deviation = horizon aurora to 54N, The further the deviation, the further south the lights will travel.

[Helen]

Now up to 4.3...

[Kp6]

The KHO now forecasts KP5 in 44 minutes time.

The website that hosts the UK magnetometer has crashed.

It's around now I would be heading out to a dark site, The magnetic field is beginning to show a negative tendency.

Unfortunately, for me to get to a cloud free location I would need to get the boat over to Larne.

I might be keen, but not that keen!!!

spacew.com has a kinda traffic light system for auroral activity, Currently red alert on high-latitudes and amber alert for mid-latitudes.

[Helen]

This is looking good The Geophysical Institute Auroral Forecast Short-Term PredictionPage

Helen

[kharga]

If you have an iPhone then two apps are worth downloading for free called '3D sun' and 'NASA space weather' these give you lots of the info mentioned above and are updated constantly. It's possible they are available for other phones too but I cant confirm this myself.

Richard

There is also Solaris Alpha for android at £1.10p

[Nexus 6]

Terrible weather, what a shame, still, I hope we get some posts from across the pond later

[xboxdevil]

If only our beautiful hobby wasn't constantly blighted by the weather!

[Helen]

Numbers seem to be going down again...

Helen

[AndyW]

Its amazing following this.

Its going to have to be an awesome storm to see much where I am though dowm at 51.3. Hey ho, give it time!

Andy

[Kp6]

Numbers seem to be going down again...

Helen

Yes, you are right. This particular disturbance appears to be more stable than the two previous disturbances that have happened in the last 24 hours.

Still, with an elevated solar wind speed over 500km/s there is potential.

[spaceboy]

Don't need auroras where I live, the sky is always a orangy pink colour

[Kp6]

Looking at land based magnetometers around the world, geomagnetic activity at the moment is rather quiet.

It's been suggested that some of the instrumentation on board the ace satellite may be malfunctioning as of 1950hrs tonight, Particularly the device that measures the magnetic field (By, Bz). But the wind speed device also had a reaction at the same time, very confusing.

The readings that the ace satellite are currently showing would throw up mid-latitude aurora alerts at spacew.com, as well as forecasts of mid-latitude aurora at gedds,alaska and KHO as they all rely on ace data.

I have no idea myself. It does seem unusual to see such a steady 'Bt' measurement of 15Nt over a number of hours without Bz jumping north and southwards by values of up to 15Nt.

[Starblazer]

Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation