Sizeable solar flare - possible auroras

[AwayWithTheStars]

fantastic thread, be very interested to hear if anyone saw anything?

[Kp6]

fantastic thread, be very interested to hear if anyone saw anything?

It's doubtful anyone in the UK would have seen anything in the last 24 hours. It's been confirmed that the ace satellite has been suffering from malfunctioning equipment that is giving erroneous readings. This has thrown up aurora alerts all over the world.

I don't recall this ever happening before during the time I've monitored instrumentation although it must be said my interest on the subject started as the last solar cycle was in its closing stages.

A feasible explanation for the satellite malfunction is that it could be something to do with waves of ionization coming from some incredibly active flare activity on the sun.

[JB80]

Where abouts does it say that ACE is malfunctioning?

Would make sense with the readings, if it's not working I wonder how long until it can be fixed.

That would mean it's better to keep an eye on the ground based magnometres? But then again the bulk of it has passed hasn't it?

[Kp6]

Where abouts does it say that ACE is malfunctioning?

Would make sense with the readings, if it's not working I wonder how long until it can be fixed.

That would mean it's better to keep an eye on the ground based magnometres? But then again the bulk of it has passed hasn't it?

Being 100% sure that the ace data is corrupt is way beyond my abilities, what I can see is a very static magnetic field ('Bt'), this static appearance is not unusual when the reading is at or around zero. However when the magnetic field is elevated in the manner it has been it should inhibit some kind of fluctuation, The 'Bz' measurement should also fluctuate between negative and positive polarity by (up to) the total value of the magnetic field.

To get a clearer picture, I asked Dr Leif Svalgaard if the ace satellite could be malfunctioning and if it is, has this kind of fault developed in the past.

His response was that yes, he can recollect moments during the last solar cycle when instrumentation on board the ace satellite gave erroneous read-outs.

He confirms that the current ace data is incorrect by comparing with the data that has been recorded on Nasa's WIND spacecraft.

The WIND data updates far less frequently than ace. As a result, it's not effective as a warning system for incoming CME's or high speed solar wind streams.

With regards to current geomagnetic activity, conditions have now settled and despite very high flare activity on the sun, there are no reports of any earth directed CME's in the last three days.

Sunspot region 1161 and 1162 hold potential for strong solar flares and earth directed CME's in the next 2 to 3 days.

[JB80]

Ahh OK, the WIND one is a bit confusing, just never seen that one before.

Thanks for the info.

[Glen]

Thanks Kp6, agreed the data seems flat-lined after the recent activity

but ground based mag has took a spike in the last hour or so, up to kp4.

also saying we have a 55% chance of a M class with sunspot activity

it seems to me we was in the middle of (the best way i can put it) a smoke circle.

Sorry for any confusion i was trying to descibe the shape of the CME as it hit Earth

[AwayWithTheStars]

It's doubtful anyone in the UK would have seen anything in the last 24 hours. It's been confirmed that the ace satellite has been suffering from malfunctioning equipment that is giving erroneous readings. This has thrown up aurora alerts all over the world.

I don't recall this ever happening before during the time I've monitored instrumentation although it must be said my interest on the subject started as the last solar cycle was in its closing stages.

A feasible explanation for the satellite malfunction is that it could be something to do with waves of ionization coming from some incredibly active flare activity on the sun.

Thanks for the clarification, dont know that i have truly got my head around this by any means, but is fun trying:D

Thanks for all your info, really fascinating. Will watch the thread with interest.

[meteoriot]

Ok what I'm about to ask is either stupid or obvious but here goes... It's been mentioned that the ace satellite has 'malfunctioned' not only this time but it has been noted in the past during similar events. If te magnetosphere prefects us from solar flares and cme's as they can be devastating to electronic equipment. What would happen to unprotected or lesser protected satellites in space? Could it be that the very thing the ace satellite is monitoring is causing the malfunctions and false readings?

[meteoriot]

Another question... If we were hit by a cme like the one in 1859, would it still effect the electrics if they were switched off during the time of contact?

[meteoriot]

Ps I mean large transformers and power supplies, not house hold equipment.

[JB80]

Another question... If we were hit by a cme like the one in 1859, would it still effect the electrics if they were switched off during the time of contact?

Yes, in no way are all the systems on Earth prepared for that. There are plenty of early warning satellites in place and power grids should have a plan ready(ie turn everything off) but I'm willing to guess they they all don't. On the 1859 scale would probably see serious disruption, it would be far from the end of the world though but I would expect something somewhere to go. There was an outage in Canada from solar ctivity in the 90's I think, Ican try and dig it up if you like.

Same goes for satellites, it would be fair to say it han't been determined what is up with ACE yet, but yes solar activity can and does affect satellites when serious enough. Satellites though(at least the bigger ones) can change their orbit to lower in the magnetic field, switch power systems off and are generally built with good shielding. Again that is one of the reasons SOHO and STEREO are there, as an early warning system.

[Kp6]

Heliophysics really is a subject that is still in it's early developing stages. There's so much we do not know about the sun, it's quite incredible really considering the size of the star and the fact that it's our life giver.

It is only been in the last decade that technology has significantly moved forward enabling us to study the sun finding out new things we never knew before.

This on the Noaa Space Weather Prediction Center home page this evening illustrates this...

"February 19, 2011 -- The geomagnetic storm has ended. The observations of the CME and the models of this solar eruption were unprecedented. Watch the literature in the future for studies of what will surely come to be known as the "Valentine's Day Event, 2011".

It certainly wasn't a major solar storm we have just witnessed. I think the biggest thing we have learned is the incredible velocity in which the sun can change from a 'sleeping state' to 'alive and kicking!' in a matter of days.

[Kp6]

A few words for any fellow aurora hunters.

Whilst the potential exists for more M-class and even X-class flares as well as earth directed CME's in the coming days, There is a far more reliable source of disruptive geomagnetic activity, that is from 'coronal holes'.

Coronal holes can be described (in an entirely non scientific way that makes sense to myself) as a hole on the sun's surface emitting a high speed stream of energetic particles, always faster and more dense than normal solar wind.

Just like sunspots, coronal holes rotate around the face of the sun in a cycle that normally takes 27-28 days, growing or shrinking in size during the rotation.

Around 3 or 4 days after these holes face earth, we see a high speed wind stream impacting our magnetosphere. Most of the time the effects of such wind streams are minimal, with an average kp level of perhaps 2 or 3.

Every now and again very large coronal holes form and have the potential to cause 'minor storming' levels in our geomagnetic field (above KP4) creating perfect conditions for aurora to light up very close to, or even above the British isles and dance away!

At the moment there is one very large coronal hole on the sun's surface that I have been watching for a number of months. Currently it is not in an earth facing position, but it will be around the 28th of February.

Below there is a few images and a few words describing the recorded effects over the last 3 months.

On the 12th of December we had a minor disruption measuring kp3, sufficient for horizon aurora as far south as around 59N. The coronal hole was in an earth facing position on the 8th of December.

The same coronal hole came round for a second time around 27 days later, it's position moved slightly northward (good for cracking open our magnetosphere and causing a southward Bz) and it grew slightly in size, we had more disruptive geomagnetic activity from this one. KP5. Good enough for horizon aurora as far south as 54N. The effects hit earth on the 7th of January.

Once again, another 27ish days later the hole made yet another rotation and was in an earth facing position on 31/01/11. It budged slightly further north again and grew in size. When the effects hit our planet on 4/2/11 we had a geomagnetic storm measuring KP6. This is sufficient for horizon aurora as far south as Yorkshire.

The next time this coronal hole will be earth facing is around 28/02, with effects arriving around the 3rd of March, perfect timing for a moonless sky. Using images from Nasa's stereo behind craft we can take a sneaky peek at how she's doing.

(image updates regularly)

It appears to have retained it's size possibly even growing, It still has a healthy northern flank.

If this coronal hole retains it's size and position when it becomes earth facing I would expect geomagnetic activity to reach kp4 or higher once it's effects reach earth.

Two months on the trot it hasn't disappointed, can she make it three???

[Nexus 6]

Hi Kp6, seems cicumstances were almost but not quite right for us all to witness a major astronomical event. Been a pleasure reading your's and other's contributions on this thread.

Wonder what the Suns cooking up for us next

[Kp6]

Hi Kp6, seems cicumstances were almost but not quite right for us all to witness a major astronomical event. Been a pleasure reading your's and other's contributions on this thread.

Wonder what the Suns cooking up for us next

Yes, our magnetosphere put up a really good fight during the last geomagnetic storm. If it gave in, we would have experienced much stormier conditions easily reaching kp7 or higher.

I too wonder what old sol is cooking up for us next, a couple of CME's from sunspot group 1161/62 in the next 24 hours would be lovely.

[Glen]

that would be great, do you think in the first few days of March we should see some activity?

[Kp6]

that would be great, do you think in the first few days of March we should see some activity?

Yes, almost certain based on what the Stereo B image currently shows. For you to see something from it down in Essex it would need to hit at least kp7, I'm not sure that this 'c.h' has the ability to cause such stormy geomagnetic activity. If it is accompanied by even a weak 'limb' cme then the possibility of kp7+ exists.

Edit to add...

It seems ace has been switched off in the last few hours.

[Glen]

Wow we can only hope (down here:() do you think this is it for the recent storms though? i have a feeling, reading data, that there could be more..

just got that feeling, less its duff data

[Glen]

if it is the last, it blew a few cobwebs of us for sure!

[jan00]

ACE isn't malfunctioning. Unfortunately the software does very poorly when the solar wind density drops below 1 p/cm3 (which is very typical in the wake of large solar storms). When that happens you can't trust what is plotted. In such cases SOHO/MTOF is often much more reliable, see MTOF Proton Monitor

Being 100% sure that the ace data is corrupt is way beyond my abilities, what I can see is a very static magnetic field ('Bt'), this static appearance is not unusual when the reading is at or around zero. However when the magnetic field is elevated in the manner it has been it should inhibit some kind of fluctuation, The 'Bz' measurement should also fluctuate between negative and positive polarity by (up to) the total value of the magnetic field..

[jan00]

You're incorrect. It was a major solar storm. Geomagnetically it was a minor storm because it didn't couple strongly with the magnetosphere. You are probably aware that the the total IMF field was unusually strong while the magnetic orientation was predominantly northwards. If it hadn't been we would certainly have seen a severe geomagnetic storm.

It certainly wasn't a major solar storm we have just witnessed. I think the biggest thing we have learned is the incredible velocity in which the sun can change from a 'sleeping state' to 'alive and kicking!' in a matter of days.

[JB80]

So it's a data malfunction then, fair enough. It's back up now, have they fixed the issue?

[brianb]

FYI the British Astronomical Association have issued a "warning" about enhanced solar activity, I think this is the first time they've done this. See here.

[Kp6]

ACE isn't malfunctioning. Unfortunately the software does very poorly when the solar wind density drops below 1 p/cm3 (which is very typical in the wake of large solar storms). When that happens you can't trust what is plotted. In such cases SOHO/MTOF is often much more reliable, see MTOF Proton Monitor

Just what exactly are you referring to when you say 'the software'?

On the ace craft are a number of devices all working completely independently of each other, granted that all the data it records is collected and displayed on one graph, but that is the only association the different devices ever have with one another.

With regard to you're comment on wind density. As one would say here, that's complete cobblers. It is perfectly normal for the wind density to drop below one proton per cubic centimetre when activity is quiet. It happens frequently during quiet spells in solar activity and is nothing out of the ordinary, certainly no reason not to trust the readings!!!

As to whether ace was or wasn't malfunctioning is not for me to decipher, I'm not in the position to be able to come to such a conclusion. That is the reason I asked a well qualified and respected solar physicist who WOULD know. If he believes it's malfunctioning then that's good enough for me to share such findings.

You're incorrect. It was a major solar storm. Geomagnetically it was a minor storm because it didn't couple strongly with the magnetosphere. You are probably aware that the the total IMF field was unusually strong while the magnetic orientation was predominantly northwards. If it hadn't been we would certainly have seen a severe geomagnetic storm.

Well I could pick this apart too. Firstly, three 'faint' earthbound CME's dont warrant a major solar storm, look at the events that occurred around 28/10/03 for an example that illustrates the definition of a major solar storm. The IMF field was not 'unusually' strong. In fact, it was barely strong at all. During the peak of this event the IMF field very briefly peaked at around 30Nt with a dominant field measurement of between 15 and 20Nt. In my view this is minor bordering on moderate considering the 'X-class' origins of one of the CME's.

Solar wind densities reached around 10p cm/3, again, nothing substantial, I've seen higher densities recorded several times in the last year or two from minor limb CME's associated with C-class flares as well as from coronal hole wind streams. The one accurate part of your statement was the northward tendency of our magnetic field. That was to be expected due to the location of sunspot 11158 when the CME's occurred and I touched on that (albeit in a simplified manner) when replying to Nexus6.

Yes, our magnetosphere put up a really good fight during the last geomagnetic storm. If it gave in, we would have experienced much stormier conditions easily reaching kp7 or higher.

You know.... When I got to the computer this afternoon the first thing I did was look for any update on ace and the reasons for the satellite going offline. The top three results were this thread, then the thread where I seek Leif Svalgaard's opinion on the status of ace and thirdly some whack crazy loon conspiracy web page titled....

"SOLAR DOOM! NOAA ACE OFFLINE! NASA SHUTTING DOWN SOLAR DATA"

Jan00, I'm guessing you have found your way here via the latter of the three above mentioned web pages.

I only started this thread to alert people to the potential for a display of the northern lights across the UK. Anything over and above that, I'm not interested. I'm certainly not going to waste my time arguing with people who have absolutely no idea what they're talking about.

[Nexus 6]

Ermmmm...... still cloudy here