The Easiest Job In The World....

[Tim]

I'm gonna change my career. No more working 80 hour weeks, no more filling in for low-life staff who walk out two days before your busiest day of the year. No more battling with profit and loss sheets, accountants and financiers. No more being the hated 'bad guy' that nobody likes because you tell them what to do.

I'm gonna give all that up and become a weather forecaster. It has to be the easiest job in the world. Here is my first forecast.

The weather for the next few days will be changeable, some parts will see some sunshine, and there may be clouds or even rain for other areas. If the wind gets up, especially in windy places, it might be windy. Sunny days on the whole will be warmer than the cloudy days, and the rainy days will be the wettest.

So, how did I do? I take as my mentor and guru, the genius at the met office who wrote the following forecast. This is copied and pasted right off the metoffice site.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 May 2008 to Thursday 5 Jun 2008: The beginning of this period will remain rather unsettled with bursts of heavy rain at times in southern parts, with northern areas seeing the driest and brightest weather. Throughout the rest of the period, as we end May and head into the first week of June, there are signs that the weather will remain rather changeable in all parts. Some sunshine is likely, perhaps more especially in coastal parts; though showers, and possibly some longer spells of rain are equally likely, which could well be heavy and thundery at times. Temperatures on the whole will be around or a little above average, and at times it will feel warm in the sunshine. Windward coasts, and areas which experience downpours not surprisingly will be cooler.

Now then, where do I sign up???

TJ

[mik]

Will there be Snow in the colder mountain regions along with a cool breeze.

[saturn5]

Its the Met Office for you TJ and with that expert prediction(and might i add,superb presentation)it wont be long before your a brolly dolly,er i mean weather presenter.

[GazOC]

Some things are just impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy...I just wish the Met Office would admit it!!!

[Helen]

They do sort of... taken from BBC website

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

[GazOC]

A week?? They don't seem to even get "today" right most of the time....

[Helen]

I agree Gaz!

[barkis]

I can understand your cynicism TJ. I'm sure the rising animosity towards forecasting, can be perhaps linked to the phrase, "Hurricane, what Hurricane, believe me, there's no Hurricane".

I probably haven't quoted Mr Fish correctly, but I think the whole profession took a belly flop that night. Such an enormous amount of damage was done, no one believed it was not foreseeable.

I think it's one of those cases where time won't heal the sore.

We used to have a very thriving agricultural industry in the UK. there was always a wise sage available wherever the location, who could judge impending weather, probably over a few days.

I don't know if weather satellites are worth the investment.

Ron.

[lunator]

My view is it all went down hill after they got rid of the magnetic boards and the stick on clouds.

Cheers

Ian

[Xunil]

So, TJ, are you going to start giving us a serious forecast? I'd love to know when the seeing will be good. If you can just tell me from now on, I'll make sure my gear is cooled and ready. Thanks

[Tim]

The businesses I am involved with all depend on the weather for success. Now my hobbies too!

Generally, to be accurate, get the BBC forecast, and expect the exact opposite.

[Xunil]

The businesses I am involved with all depend on the weather for success. Now my hobbies too!

Generally, to be accurate, get the BBC forecast, and expect the exact opposite.

Ok, I'll give that a go.

Here's what the BBC say Barnstaple should be looking like tonight at 22:00 Hrs ...

Friday's summary for 22:00 is set for Clear.

15°C

Friday's wind direction for 22:00 is Easterly Wind, 7mph

Visibility:Good

Relative Pressure: 1009mb

Humidity: 76%

So I'm expecting...

Friday's summary for 22:00 is set for Not Clear.

-15°C

Friday's wind direction for 22:00 is Westerly Wind, 7mph

Visibility:Bad

Relative Pressure: 1009mb (Im not sure what the opposite of 1009 millibars should be)

Humidity: 24%

I'll let you know how it goes

[thing]

I'm a great believer in the Connolly school of forecasting-"Why do we need forecasters? if I want to know what the weather's like I look out the f****** window."

Forecast here for tonight is clear from 2200. I'll not bother setting the scope up then.

[Sam]

I'm sorry fellow SGL'ers but I think you are being very unfair on the met folks. I studied Met at uni and was a consumer of met for a few years. It is very difficult to get an accurate forecast for anything over about 12 hours out, the problem is the public demand forecasts for anything up to a week, and often more, so the met community is required to do the best they can on something that is so incredibly uncertain.

Nobody ever thanks the weather people when they are right but they sure wear the brunt of it when they are wrong.

I have to admit though, I have vented about the weather... and TJ, not a bad forecast.

Sam

[thing]

The problem is that anyone of us here could guesstimate the weather forecast as good as a qualified forecaster. 'There might be some sunny spells tomorrow in some areas with a chance of rain.'

There. That will be £500 please.

[phillc]

I would be happy if the forecaster for my area could get his forecast right 12 hours ahead.!!!

For any given day he tells us we might have some followed by and in between we might get a bit of :sunny: .

Good job the forecasters we have today weren't around when they had to give the weather forecast for D- day. Or we would still be waiting to go.

O well i feel better with that of my chest.

phillc

[BG]

LOL, TJ. :cat:

FWIW, Geoff Monk's Mountain Weather Information Service (MWIS) is an excellent service. OK, it's only for upland areas of the UK, but I've only ever known it to be wrong twice in the last 5 or 6 years.

[Xunil]

Well, here's the results:

>> Friday's summary for 22:00 is set for Not Clear.

I poked my head out at 22:05, as this doesn't seem miles away from 22:00, for the purposes of the experiment I decided was close enough. Not clear does seem to have born out, as there was a little cloud in the sky.

>> -15°C

Here things went down hill. It was definately a lot warmer than that.

>> Friday's wind direction for 22:00 is Westerly Wind, 7mph

Ouch. Although I can't accurately measure wind speed, there's definately a nice light breeze, and although it's moving west, it's definately an Easterly.

>> Visibility:Bad

It's pretty good. Definately the sort of visibility I get when I've not been drinking. I can see for miles.

>> Relative Pressure: 1009mb (Im not sure what the opposite of 1009 millibars should be)

>> Humidity: 24%

Well there's a definate "mug" to the air. Must be a fair amount of wet in it

--

Overall, TJ's weather forecast gets 1 out of 5. The BBC get 4 out of 5. TJ, you're sacked.

[Mark at Beaufort]

TJ I think you are quite correct about the BBC and taking the exact opposite. I recall checking the forecast for Turkey just prior to the total eclipse in 2006. I flew out 24 hours before the event and the BBC stated that the sky would be TOTALLY cloudy if fact the sky did not have a single cloud - that god. Seeing this forecast before I left did not make me feel great!!

Mark

[Dippus]

Just use one of these.

Mark

[Tim]

My boss is a pilot, and we get the forecasts from the airport every now and again. They are on the whole fairly good.

I generally take the satellite pictures, watch the sequence to see which way the wind comes around, and try to guesstimate how long till the clear patches come, and how long they will last. That's usually ok'ish.

As I mentioned, I have relied on the weather for 20 years now for my business, here are some guidleines which I have found to be accurate;

1) Rain at 7, dry by 11. - Nearly always the case

2) Red sky at night etc

3) If it is very windy, it doesn't usually rain much

4) More than 3 days of hot sunshine will lead to clouds and heavy stormy showers

And here are some things I have found which make the sun shy more often than not.

1) Taking your shirt off

2) Buying a telescope

3) Washing the car

4) Having a picnic

Somebody once said that in this country (UK) we have the best weather in the world. Because we have it all. And often in one day.

TJ

[rikyuu]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 May 2008 to Thursday 5 Jun 2008: The beginning of this period will remain rather unsettled with bursts of heavy rain at times in southern parts, with northern areas seeing the driest and brightest weather. Throughout the rest of the period, as we end May and head into the first week of June, there are signs that the weather will remain rather changeable in all parts. Some sunshine is likely, perhaps more especially in coastal parts; though showers, and possibly some longer spells of rain are equally likely, which could well be heavy and thundery at times. Temperatures on the whole will be around or a little above average, and at times it will feel warm in the sunshine. Windward coasts, and areas which experience downpours not surprisingly will be cooler.

....and I bet it will still be wrong!!!

[supernova]

My job is---

The Easiest in the world

[Parallax]

I recall a few years ago some university students 'predicted' the weather, daily, over a 12 month period saying "The weather tomorrow will be the same as today". Over that period they were correct more often than the met office!