Aurora Borealis Over Scotland & Northern England Tonight & Tomorrow Night

[YouCannotBeSirius]

According to 'Star Gazing Live' and several online articles Scotland and Northern England could see the Northern Lights tonight and tomorrow night as an X-class CME solar flare reaches us.

Of course the bad weather will probably destroy all chances of seeing anything. But even if partly cloudy it will be worth looking up 10pm-1am. I've seen them twice in Iceland last February and I badly want to see them again. I hope at least some of us get lucky!

[mickshere]

One cant afford to miss the event, just in case....  imagine all the Did you see!!  conversations

[Ben Smith]

Weather looks good for tomorrow so fingers crossed

[YouCannotBeSirius]

The weather here in South Cumbria isn't looking hopeful except for a clear window around 10pm... fingers crossed indeed.

[astronymonkey]

Hi Folks,

An X1 Solar flare left the suns surface early yesterday evening from a huge sunspot known as AR1944. As this sun spot is currently pointing directly towards the earth the CME is likely to score a direct hit on the earth and trigger aurora which may well reach far enough south so the auroral oval is visible from the uk.

So if the solar wind increases to 900km/sec, which it can following such an outburst, then the CME should reach the earth sometime tomorrow afternoon and may well cause aurora which is visible in the uk. 

The Aurorawatch website is a useful one for seeing the likelyhood of uk aurora (look for the bar graph going red) http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/, 

Another one is Spaceweather.com http://spaceweather.com/ - look for the interplanetary magnetic field going south as the CME hits , and the solar wind blowing fast and dense (ie over 500km/sec and 5protons/cm)

And finally ovation will show where the Auroral oval is,   and the latitude from which it is visible http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

So sometime tomorrow the interplanetary field will dip significantly as the CME arrives (and may rise slightly first) , after which the auroral oval will begin to glow and spread south as the charge builds up .... although these things do have a habit of being a damp squib I have a good feeling about this one with the chance of clearing skies too.

Happy hunting,

[YouCannotBeSirius]

They mentioned on SGL this evening that the CME is due to reach Earth around 8am tomorrow morning.

Midnight is the best time to look to the skies, however from personal experience, I can tell you it can happen anywhere from around 10pm to 1am and even with dark, clear skies it's just a matter of luck.

[astronymonkey]

8am .... well that means the speed of the blast is very rapid . 93 million miles in 36hrs puts it at over 1,100km/sec which is pretty awesome so looking really good.

With a speed that fast, and a decent sized blast this could well be an all night event if it kicks off. As you say, midnight is best as this is when we are on the leeward side of the earth, with the sun directly opposite and the auroral oval tends to get blown south on the leeward side of the earth....with a big event thought the auroral oval is big enough for it to be seen right from sunset without us needing to wait until we are in the leeward side.

The last time I saw a sunspot this big was in the late 80's and the aurora that produced over the UK was visible right from sunset until dawn with clear skies all night ....absoluely awesome ad the first timer ever I had seen aurora. A similar thing happened in 2003 when once again we had full coronal aurora (with the auroral oval directly over the uk) and this too was a night to remember ......  so tomorrow night could be another fantastic show ..... but CMEs are fickle things which often miss earth even when predicted so Im expecting all or nothing. 

Cheers

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Thank you for that additional info, I didn't realise it was that big and fast. As you say, this makes things look a bit more hopeful. But as well also know, the Aurora Borealis are just as unpredictable and elusive... though I think we stand a fair chance?!

[astronymonkey]

the X class flares are the big ones and dont happen too often and although X1 isnt huge it was preceded by some M class ones which means the solar wind is already pretty active. Space weather live http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity has just reported an S3 radiation storm status which only happens about 10 times in a solar cycle meaning things are already a bit unusual......looking good.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Oh, cool. Thanks for the update. I'm praying for a clear, dark sky tomorrow night.

I've just been looking at the ovation maps. I don't want to get too excited only to be gutted if nothing happens but I can't help but feel hopeful.

[Ben Smith]

I love the sound of this. Keep us updated. I'm in work from sunset until 10:30pm so I think it will be a long shift with this going through my mind the whole evening.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I just read this, which is pretty interesting, it outlines the potential chances of viewing the Aurora Borealis tomorrow (Jan 9th): http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/582-middle-latitude-auroral-activity-watch-january-9-2014/?p=6121

These quotes are taken from the above link:

Expected geomagnetic activity
We expect the CME to arrive around 06:00 UTC on January 9 with a plus/minus of 6 hours. The Bz component of the IMF is likely to be mostly southward which encourages the development of a geomagnetic storm. G2 geomagnetic storming conditions are to be expected with possible periods of G3 geomagnetic storming conditions.

The locations below will have a reasonable chance to see aurorae during a G2 geomagnetic storm provided local viewing conditions are good. This includes but is not limited to: a clear sight towards the northern or southern horizon, no clouds, no light pollution and complete darkness:

Europe:
Dublin (Ireland) Manchester (England)

So, it is indeed looking hopeful.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Cumbria is currently on an Amber alert status according to AuroraWatch UK's Twitter feed.

[happy-kat]

We will be one of those hopefuls down south, you never know and if you don't take part you are out of the party

[ccfcbob]

What are the chances down here in the midlands? We have clear skies forecast all night according to the BBC

[Naemeth]

Would be great to see - at about midnight I'll just be coming home from work so it would be a great end to the day .

[Knight of Clear Skies]

Fingers crossed for you all up north.

[SteveNickolls]

Camera-check, tripod-check, fingers crossed-check, clear sky forecast-check. All looking good.

Cheers,

Steve

[starman1969]

I'm definitely going to my dark sky site tonight to see if I can spot the aurora.

For anybody in West Lancs I'll be around the Beacon Fell area, Forest of Bowland.

[blinky]

I take it from this page: http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/  that the CME has not yet hit?

[starman1969]

I take it from this page: http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ that the CME has not yet hit?

I do follow that page, but I think it's always worth following a few other sites just in case one is on the blink.

[Davey-T]

Not much chance for us Southerners, I think it's only been seen here once in living memory.

Dave

[callump]

Well - I have seen aurora from Gloucestershire three times, so it's possible we might see something. If the Kp gets to around 6 it should be visible all the way down to the south of the UK.
 

Callum

[northwalesparry]

Im on the north wales coast back yard looks north over the sea so fingers crossed for later.

[Lunar93]

Looks excellent for here later. Clear skies all night with temps around 4C. Usually a KP of 5 would be visible hugging the northern horizon here, so 6 or above would be 45 degrees or higher in the skies. Fingers crossed!