Aurora Borealis Over Scotland & Northern England Tonight & Tomorrow Night

[happy-kat]

Watching the site update and being hopeful is tantalising

[Hypernova]

The solar wind has jumped to 473.8 km/s and 5.4 protons/cm3 in the last few minutes!

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Things certainly seem to be picking up...

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Apparently the solar flare hasn't hit Earth just yet but could do so between now and 4am, also I've just seen an update on cloud coverage and the North is clearing up quite considerably between 10pm and 1am.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

The CME has now reached Earth, according to 'Star Gazing Live'.

[happy-kat]

The dials not alight yet

[Beulah]

I wish I could set my alarm to aurora time....early start tomorrow, my boss doesn't want me falling asleep on the job...

[Lunar93]

Update from the NOAA at 8pm : 

The coronal mass ejection (CME), originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, was observed at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 1932 UTC (2:32 p.m. EST).  It’s too early to see much with respect to the magnetic structure of this CME, but short-term, high-confidence warnings will be issued as this event plays out.  The original forecast continues to be for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity on January 9 and 10.  Aurora watchers may be in luck for tonight.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, currently at S2 (Moderate) levels, is seeing a modest enhancement with this shock passage but remains below S3 (Strong) threshold at this time.  Updates here as this event unfolds.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I wish I could set my alarm to aurora time....early start tomorrow, my boss doesn't want me falling asleep on the job...

Coffee!

[Laurie61]

Have clear sky's here but I think I'm a bit to far south? This is quite a good link for monitoring geomagnetic activity but its a bit slow today. http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Personally I don't rely on Aurorawatch as they are slow to update and their measurements at best appear to be 3 hour averages whereas other websites offer 15 minute - 60 second updates on solar wind other things. Also I've been told AW doesn't post any 'alerts' until such activity is actually happening, giving little warning time. Check out the other links Astromonkey and I have posted.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

According to AuroraWatch's Twitter feed chances of seeing the Aurora Borealis are "diminishing", can anyone counteract this claim? I honestly don't know.

[jonathan]

Can't see anything unusual from my location in North Yorkshire, I think I'd be lucky to see anything with the bright moon.

[Paul M]

I'm no expert but this product: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ seems to indicated (to me) that even if the main auroral lobe does intensify, which it needs to for our latitudes, it's going to be over the Atlantic or heading Stateside.

[Ben Smith]

Not sure if it's going to help but I found a live webcam from Iceland. There doesn't seem to be much happening over there http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/thingvellir/

[YouCannotBeSirius]

http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/ This is the page I'm keeping an eye on, it's specifically an Aurora forecast for Europe and the solar wind gauges are updated every minute without having to refresh the page.

[rpnphotography]

So the big question, should I stay up to try and catch a glimpse, I'm in Dorset...... I'm guessing my chances are slim to none? :-(

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Right now, the aurora is predicted to be: Kp 1.33 In 0 hour and 29 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 1.33

In 0 hour and 39 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 1.33

In 0 hour and 51 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 4.00

In less than an hour we go to KP4...

[happy-kat]

Short term now reads 4 quite a jump but i expect I'll be fast a sleep and miss anything lol

[Paul M]

So the big question, should I stay up to try and catch a glimpse, I'm in Dorset...... I'm guessing my chances are slim to none? :-(

Well, auroral activity hasn't even increased at higher latitudes so far. I'm not excited about this one myself.

The two decent aurorae I have seen from my back garden were both well forecast by the types of imagery I the links above.

[Brent]

Now that short term's gone to a 4 I'm getting ready. If it goes to 5 we'll be heading out on a 35 min drive to darker skies on the off chance of it reaching a 6.

Got to take these rare half opportunities when they come.

I've only seen it once, when we were camping near Wick 5 years ago.

Fingers crossed!

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Right now, the aurora is predicted to be: Kp 1.33 In 0 hour and 20 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 1.33

In 0 hour and 32 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 4.00

In 0 hour and 51 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 3.33

[astronymonkey]

Im not giving up hope yet. On the day of the x class flare there was an M class flare not too long beforehand and one after. In the two days from sun to earth , with each flare travelling at different speeds, it is likely that there has been a lot of mixing of the solar wind meaning that the arrival of the CME may be just the start of an evening of activity.

The IMF is still bouncing around and moderately strong, but not dived to far south yet, and the magnetograms are on a post hit downward path which is good so if another part of the solar wind has more to give then you never know what might happen.

cheers

[theclearskiesofthemoon]

Now it's going from 4.00 to 3.33 to 3.00. If it does go up, it won't be in the next hour or two. Might be better to just set the alarm early.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

It went up from 1.33/1.67 to 4 very quickly though.