Aurora Borealis Over Scotland & Northern England Tonight & Tomorrow Night

[Knight of Clear Skies]

Perhaps if London and South Herts could be persuaded to switch off for the night I'd have a better chance of seeing anything.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I don't follow the Aurorawatch as much as Auroraspy and spaceweather as the former doesn't seem as reliable or active as the latter two.

[Lunar93]

Another useful link, this one's from the British Geological Survey (BGS)

http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/current_activity.html

Shows obs from 3 sites: Lerwick, Eskdalemuir and Hartland. May come in useful later 

[skybadger]

I don't follow the Aurorawatch as much as Auroraspy and spaceweather as the former doesn't seem as reliable or active as the latter two.

On the other hand I have found aurowat h to be quite accurate, the very few red alerts I've had I've seen something if the weather was clear

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I've just read this article by the Telegraph regarding tonight's chances: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/10560789/Northern-Lights-sightings-possible-over-Britain.html

I'd say don't be put off by AuroraWatch's pessimism, but rather be encouraged by the rest of the article as the situation is promising.

Scientists from the Space Weather Prediction Centre in Boulder, Colorado, have predicted that the solar storm that is heading this way could mean that displays of the lights measured on what is called the KP Index could rise from a reading of one (visible in northern Scandinavia) to a reading of seven (visible in southern Wales and parts of southern England).

“This is not an exact science but the likelihood is that tonight could provide people in southern parts of Britain a rare opportunity,” said Mark Haywood on behalf of Off the Map Travel, a soft adventure travel company that specialises in the Northern Lights. “I for one will be heading up to the clear skies of the Lake District and hoping for the best.”

The impact of the solar storm was expected to be felt by early evening with readings of the KP Index reaching 7 by midnight. Experts suggested that between midnight and 3am would be the optimum time for views of the lights

[YouCannotBeSirius]

As the article says, wrap up warm, take a torch (and someone else for safety reasons), find higher ground with a  clear, dark sky around midnight with a view of the Northern horizon, and who's to say you won't get lucky as the chances are looking promising.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

This image of cloud cover at midnight tonight was posted by Metdesk this morning:

However other reports suggest the Lake District area is set to be mostly clear. As always weather reports are conflicting, just to be helpful. If anyone has any reliable weather info they can share, that would be great.

[Ben Smith]

Similar conditions to the site I use

[YouCannotBeSirius]

It looks like there could be a few breaks in the clouds - mostly/partly cloudy at best, at least it isn't set to be completely overcast yet. It wouldn't be Britain if the weather didn't ruin everything...

[Ibbo!]

can somebody arrange to have the moon turned down please

[Moonshane]

surely if there are clouds all the way to the north, even if you have clear skies locally, the AB would not be visible?

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I don't know, I'm just sharing the information I gather for fellow hopefuls. I suppose it depends on how far the ovation stretches... if it reaches areas of Scotland - as some sites predict - the lights may be seen at zenith, some sites suggest there's a fair chance of KP7 which would definitely reach Northern England whilst others suggest G2 storms are predicted which also causes KP7. At the moment (from what I know) it's a waiting game but all the experts are suggesting it's promising, assuming they take into consideration the obvious factors such as weather. So, essentially I don't have the answer, but it is currently looking towards fair-moderate chances.

[Crimson Sunset]

It's starting to clear here in Scotlandshire, here's hoping it stays that way!

[callump]

surely if there are clouds all the way to the north, even if you have clear skies locally, the AB would not be visible?

Aurorae are about 100km to 200km up, so more northerly cloud cover won't affect your view - if you have a clear northern horizon, you should see it, even if those directly under can't...

Callum

[Moonshane]

I was assuming that the AB 'hugged the northern horizon' with perspective making them seem low down and therefore 'behind' the clouds further north. I suppose ultimately it depends what latitude they are vertically above?

[astronymonkey]

Ok Folks,

It looks to me as if the CME may be about to arrive at the earth as the Interplanetary magnetic field has dipped rapidly over the past hour and the strength of the field has also increased. This began about 40mins ago with a 65min eta meaning the CME may arrive in the next half hour or so. http://www.poollicht.be/

The CME is slower than expected but irrespective of that has reached us within 48 hrs which is good fgoing so it still has some guts to it.

As Ive said before though these are fickle things but with a clear sky and a good flare incoming who knows what it might turn out like

Fingers crossed.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Thank you for the informative update!

For the sake of going to higher ground and looking North for a bit at midnight, it's well worth the effort just in case, no harm in being optimistic.

[astronymonkey]

Where they are in the sky depends on how far down the earth the auroral oval stretches and this depends on how loaded up the earth magnetic field becomes with charge and activated atoms. With a strong solar wind this can blow the auroral oval further south at midnight (when we are on the other side of the earth to the incoming solar wind) or if the oval is heavily charged it spreads south and can be overhead in which case the aurora is at the zenith and looks unusual as you look up thoguht the aurora itself.... this is coronal aurora.

So if the oval is located over shetland for instance then this will be low on the horizon for north england viewers but probably too low for southern observers in the UK. If it streatches as far south as manchester for instance then the aurora will be overhead from there, but will be high in the northern sky for southern viewers, and may be past the zenith and on the southern horizon for shetland viewers.

Then again it may be too weak to be seen from anywhere depending on how things develop.

Cheers

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I'm quite surprised to see the papers suggesting that South England might get some views, I hope they're right, but I wouldn't be excited or too hopeful if I was in the South. I think even being in Northern England (South Cumbria) is questionable. I think Northern parts of Scotland will get lucky.

[YouCannotBeSirius]

http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/?gclid=CNDDvdjh8bsCFSsKwwod_UgArw

Can anyone shed any light on this page of info?

[Beulah]

Looks like they are playing safe, YouCannotBeSirius. Currently Kp 1.3 and rising, but....

Quote from page:

but we are (as usual) being a little pessimistic with our forecast and think for the most part it might be Kp6. As usual we hope to be proven wrong and it exceeds all our expectations! So keep an eye on the hourly forecast and see what happens. Clear skies!

It means you have to stay up and wait and see.  

[YouCannotBeSirius]

Looks like they are playing safe, YouCannotBeSirius. Currently Kp 1.6 and dropping, but....

Quote from page:

It means you have to stay up and wait and see.  

Looks like they are playing safe, YouCannotBeSirius. Currently Kp 1.6 and dropping, but....

It means you have to stay up and wait and see.  

Haha. Well, if KP6 is pessimistic I'm happy with that... just not the waiting bit...

[YouCannotBeSirius]

3 Day Aurora Forecast

Here are the predicted Kp numbers for the next 3 days. They can change at any time due to solar events, so you should check them at least once a day.

Time now in UTC (Universal Time) is:

18:59 09/01/14

Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11

00-03UT 3 7 (G3) 4

03-06UT 3 6 (G2) 3

06-09UT 2 5 (G1) 3

09-12UT 2 4 3

12-15UT 7 (G3) 4 3

15-18UT 7 (G3) 3 3

18-21UT 6 (G2) 3 3

21-00UT 6 (G2) 3 3

[Beulah]

Haha. Well, if KP6 is pessimistic I'm happy with that... just not the waiting bit...

I think it has to be KP7 or 8 to be seen much further south. KP 6 would be as low as Northern England. Looks like you are in for a treat. 

[YouCannotBeSirius]

I really hope so. I've seen them twice in Iceland but my best friend hasn't seen them yet and it's on her bucket list so I'm taking her up to high ground tonight to see if we can catch a glimpse, I'd like for her and others who haven't yet seen them to be in with a good chance and I'd love to see them again, of course. Like you say, just gotta wait and see...!