Are we doomed?

[Guest]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53082475
Just read this article from the BBC news website. What do you think?

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Guest

[SteveWolves]

Its well worth a visit there when you can.

[Robindonne]

Don’t worry.  I have my newton constantly aimed at the sky.   I’ll let you know when i see something Worth mentioning.   But seriousy i dont know how “protected” we are when something is coming towards us. I do know that after reading an article about a lucky escape of earth not being hit by something that wasn't seen with their “Earth defense radar” i became sure we will suffer if we are on the path of something big.  And worrying while you cant change the situation is for me worthless.   *** crawling back to his basement***

Edited June 28, 2020 by Robindonne

[SteveWolves]

There is plenty we can do if one is found on our way.

[Tenor Viol]

At some point in time it is inevitable that we will be hit by a substantial cometary nucleus, asteroid etc. However, there have been processes ongoing for quite a while to identify potential annihilators and there is reasonable confidence that anything of 'significance' is known and there are no immediate threats. The main risk is something getting knocked out of the Oort Cloud and dropping by

 

[Pixies]

Oh well. At least we're not launching thousands of satellites up into low Earth-orbit  which would confuse the early-warning detection systems.

 

 

 

 

 

Doh!

[Robindonne]

Its interesting but i cant really tell much about it that makes sense(as you might have already noticed).  But i wonder how somethings path can be predicted when its speed and direction can change due to passing other objects or breaking in parts, and therefore predict the location of earth on that moment?

[Tenor Viol]

Most of the big stuff is identified, mapped, and kept under watch

[Paul M]

We owe our existence the K-T boundary extinction event, you know, the one that saw off the dinosaurs and created the Cixculub crater.

Without that mammals would never have flourished.

And Earth would still be ruled by thick skinned, low intelligence reptiles..

..oh, hold on

[SteveWolves]

@Robindonne

Thats why repeated observations are needed on all objects and searches done to find new ones. The calcs for orbits just need position and time of obs.

[johninderby]

Climate change and volcanic activity all played their part in the extinction of the dinosaurs. The asteroid came along at the worst possible time just when everthing else was going wrong for the non-avian dinosaurs.

BTW dinosaurs weren’t reptiles and were getting smarter. The surviving branch of the dinosaurs, the birds, can be pretty intelligent. 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by johninderby

[maw lod qan]

It's something I give thought to, but not really "worry" about. Till I see real hard effort to prevent it from happening, I'll just accept it as a given that the one with our name on it will hit.

One that would be extinction level, is most likely very rare. The one that surprises us and takes out a major population area, worries me more!

Just image out of the blue, or should I say dark, one with the power of 20 or 30 kilotons hit North Korea?

[Paul M]

 

1 minute ago, johninderby said:

Climate change and volcanic activity all played their part in the extinction of the dinosaurs. The asteroid came along at the worst possible time just when everthing else was going wrong for the non-avian dinosaurs.

I've been reading up and watching quite a lot about the K-T boundary recently.

The geological record of the impact is quite decisive. Rich and varied fossil record bellow the razor sharp debris layer in rock strata and barren above.

Some species took longer to expire but the obliteration of plant life saw off the great herbivores pretty quickly.

Indeed, birds are dinosaurs by most definitions.

My comment about thick reptiles was more a jibe at a subject we can't discuss

anyway, here is a interesting video I watched a few times now:

 

 

[SteveWolves]

Have a look at https://spaceguardcentre.com/

He has some good talks on the subject of numerical risk against expenditure

[Peter Drew]

If a complete extinction body is to hit us in my lifetime I want to know the when and where so that I can go and watch its incoming.     🙂

[Corncrake]

"Are we doomed" GM asked.
and I think the answer is "it depends",

 , on who you ask and who you mean by "we".
If you ask a statistician/mathematician (s)he will say "probably, how long are you willing to wait" **
If you ask anyone else they will say "I dunno", or words that mean much the same thing.

If your name is  Clint " ,, you have to ask if you feel lucky"

I mean, it is going on   25  (EDIT ooops just testing to see if y'alll were awake ) 65 million years now since the last biggie so "No, probably not for a long time yet" but there is that weasly  'probably' again !

If however you mean "we in the village of xyz" - it could have happened just over 100y ago (somewhere beginning with "T" ) so be ready to duck.

** and s/he will witter on about a Poisson distribution and things, but that is another kettle of poissons.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Corncrake

[Paul M]

3 minutes ago, Peter Drew said:

If a complete extinction body is to hit us in my lifetime I want to know the when and where so that I can go and watch its incoming.     🙂

And if you're about to be vaporised don't hide under the kitchen table, get out there and suck it up!

[SteveWolves]

Did you hear about these two ? https://spaceguardcentre.com/two-unexpected-close-approaches/

[Corncrake]

I was tempted to say

"it must be a quiet day in the BBC"

or "here we go again"

or it must be a quiet day in Wales,

but then y'all might think I had cabin fever ?

[SteveWolves]

Cabin fever-- isolation for you then.🔭✨

[johninderby]

We are all going to die. 🙀🙀🙀

I plan to die pf old age myself. 😁

[Peter Drew]

In archery and rifle target shooting, near misses don't count.  Neither do the near misses of NEO's.  So we now have the means to detect small but effective objects within a few hours of their impact, doesn't give much time for determining the impact site or organising any form of evacuation.     🙂

[SteveWolves]

I dont think you get the final say on that one though.

[Paul M]

6 minutes ago, SteveWolves said:

Did you hear about these two ? https://spaceguardcentre.com/two-unexpected-close-approaches/

An interesting insight to the efforts being made to track threats.

Both those were significantly smaller than the estimated size of the Chelyabinsk meteorite of a few years ago so would have maybe only produced awesome meteors/bolides.

It's the Tunguska event sized objects that are a worry. Small enough to dodge detection but would wipeout the average capital city and environs.

 

[Corncrake]

1 hour ago, SteveWolves said:

There is plenty we can do if one is found on our way.

Shhh, dont tell them all, C/2019 Y4 Atlas was just a test, it was only supposed to blow the doors off.