Clear outside eh??

[LondonNeil]

Pah!  Bbc forecast for tonight looked good. Grabbed the tripod and scope and headed outside and.... cloudy.

Right,  what was that site for Astronomers forecasts... where... oh yes, resources.. ahhh if course!  Right what is this?  Eh?  

OK, can somebody explain what it's telling me?  Big red box = no, green= woowho!  ?  I think I get the time chunks and the daylight,  twilight,  dark band. I'm not sure what the band under that is... cloud?

I've a green chunk,  3 hours after sunset tomorrow.... that's the only one in the forecast... should I clear my schedule?

[The Lazy Astronomer]

Green = low or no cloud, red = loadsa cloud. The accuracy of the forecast will vary, so maybe don't plan your life around it. 

The yellow/orange/blue/black bar is the daylight and civil, nautical, and astronomic darkness times. The grey/blue bar represents whether the moon is above the horizon (grey = moon up)

If you expand the day you'll get an hour by hour breakdown from 3 seperate cloud forecasts, which may or may not agree with each other, or indeed, reality. 

[PeterCPC]

In my experience you cannot believe any forecast - look out the window.

[Dazzyt66]

6 hours ago, LondonNeil said:

Pah!  Bbc forecast for tonight looked good. Grabbed the tripod and scope and headed outside and.... cloudy.

Right,  what was that site for Astronomers forecasts... where... oh yes, resources.. ahhh if course!  Right what is this?  Eh?  

OK, can somebody explain what it's telling me?  Big red box = no, green= woowho!  ?  I think I get the time chunks and the daylight,  twilight,  dark band. I'm not sure what the band under that is... cloud?

I've a green chunk,  3 hours after sunset tomorrow.... that's the only one in the forecast... should I clear my schedule?

I think many of us over the years have worked out that forecasts are exactly that and are very rarely accurate (unless a number of sources happen to say same thing) My proven method which is always 100% accurate? I use an eyeball mk1 👁️😁

[MarsG76]

I find that the app "Clear Outside" is accurate 9/10 times... down to the hour in my location... there are times where Clear Outside was showing cloudy than clear at a certain time and it might have not happened at the time shown, but 2 hours later, it was clear... I recommend to give it a go, out of all of the forecasts I experienced, there is no such thing as perfectly accurate forecast (unless you're a lefty and can forecast 100 year in the future.. apparently) this one was most reliable.

[Craney]

Use this....

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/country/gb

and this

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

if you fear for a rig left out in the rain .....

[Simon Pepper]

25 minutes ago, Craney said:

Use this....

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/country/gb

and this

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

if you fear for a rig left out in the rain .....

Saved as not used these before and they look really good. Thanks 

[Second Time Around]

We repeatedly have comments on the forum dissing the cloud forecasts.  However, some of you will remember that I recorded the accuracy of 6 (😎later eight) such forecasts every night for 17 months.  See https://stargazerslounge.com/topic/376745-a-record-of-the-accuracy-of-my-local-cloud-forecasts/#comment-4081235)

These showed 2 things:

1) the forecasts were correct roughly 2 nights out of 3

2) only 4% were completely wrong

3) there was no significant difference between any of the sites (including Clear Outside)

So how do we account for the criticism not tying in with the data? I commented in that thread that it's human nature to remember the wrong forecasts more.  In fact, there's a scientific term for this;  it's called the Von Restorff Effect.

Edited April 16 by Second Time Around

[Second Time Around]

19 hours ago, Second Time Around said:

We repeatedly have comments on the forum dissing the cloud forecasts.  However, some of you will remember that I recorded the accuracy of 6 (later 😎later eight such  forecasts every night for 17 months.  See https://stargazerslounge.com/topic/376745-a-record-of-the-accuracy-of-my-local-cloud-forecasts/#comment-4081235) These showed 2 things:

1) the forecasts were correct roughly 2 nights out of 3

2) only 4% were completely wrong

3 there was no significant difference between any of the sites (including Clear Outside)

So how do we account for the criticism not tying in with the data? I commented in that thread that it's human nature to remember the wrong forecasts more.  In fact, there's a scientific term for this;  it's called Von Restorff Effect.

 

 

Can't get rid of the sunglasses in the above thread.  

Any suggestions?

Edited April 14 by Second Time Around

[Second Time Around]

I also use sat24 that's the same as netweather.  Both use infrared satellite pictures so, unlike visual pics, show cloud at night.

Another similar but different site I find useful is https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/ This also shows low cloud/fog.

[LondonNeil]

Don't get me wrong,  I'm not complaining about clear outside.  I'm not really complaining about any forecast.   Just a bit of a moan about the weather and saying clear outside is confusing me.   I have now worked out the bottom bar is the moon though.

[Tiny Clanger]

1 hour ago, LondonNeil said:

 clear outside is confusing me.   I have now worked out the bottom bar is the moon though.

Have you clicked on 'how to use' at the top and followed the tour ?

[LondonNeil]

Hadn't seen that,  thank you. 

[Mal22]

I use this website which is pretty reliable 

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/london_united-kingdom_2643743

I also use Cloudy Nights and if the two concur, happy days 

[TiffsAndAstro]

On 13/04/2024 at 00:25, LondonNeil said:

Pah!  Bbc forecast for tonight looked good. Grabbed the tripod and scope and headed outside and.... cloudy.

Right,  what was that site for Astronomers forecasts... where... oh yes, resources.. ahhh if course!  Right what is this?  Eh?  

OK, can somebody explain what it's telling me?  Big red box = no, green= woowho!  ?  I think I get the time chunks and the daylight,  twilight,  dark band. I'm not sure what the band under that is... cloud?

I've a green chunk,  3 hours after sunset tomorrow.... that's the only one in the forecast... should I clear my schedule?

You need multiple apps and then guess. Maybe like NASA, if 2 of the 3 agree then act on that

Or just look out the window.

There is nothing like English weather for unexpected rain or unexpected anything. I swear I've had rain without a cloud in sight.

[TiffsAndAstro]

On 14/04/2024 at 05:31, Mal22 said:

I use this website which is pretty reliable 

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/london_united-kingdom_2643743

I also use Cloudy Nights and if the two concur, happy days 

I now use 4 apps/URLs instead of 3. Ty ;(

[TiffsAndAstro]

I bought my gear cos it was cheap.

Turns out, I really bought my gear because I can pick it up in one hand and run.

Edited April 24 by TiffsAndAstro

[TiffsAndAstro]

On 14/04/2024 at 05:31, Mal22 said:

I use this website which is pretty reliable 

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/london_united-kingdom_2643743

I also use Cloudy Nights and if the two concur, happy days 

How does it know o what my seeing is, when I don't know?

Also, is it a accurate prediction/calculation?

Edited April 25 by TiffsAndAstro

[doublevodka]

Treat the forecasts as a rough guide and you can't go too far wrong, as others have said above, your own eyeballs in person are the best much as it can be frustrating sometimes going in and out.

The longer I do this, the more I'm valuing my grab and go setup, especially with the crappy weather for the last year or so. If it's clear I can be out and up and running in minutes (visual) - I honestly don't know how the imagers keep at it, your persistence is impressive with the low number of clear nights, I'm happy to get a quick hour between clouds.

[Hughsie]

Just adding my input;

Anything generated by BBC weather I ignore.

Metcheck has been fairly reliable for me and has an astronomy forecast.

Windy is a also a good free programme. I select clouds at all heights and you can run through the night hours to see it’s prediction as to what cloud may roll in.

In any event, I never rely on a single source - first I check Metcheck, then see how Windy I am, decide if my all-weather knee feels like rain is on its way then use my Mk I eyeballs.

[Zermelo]

We can now observe the weather 280 light years away, so perhaps we'll soon be able to predict accurately the chances of a clear night tomorrow here.

https://science.nasa.gov/missions/webb/nasas-webb-maps-weather-on-planet-280-light-years-away/

[Elp]

On 29/04/2024 at 22:36, Hughsie said:

then see how Windy I am

Think you've got other problems...

[Mr Spock]

Easy to interpret. 

Yellow is when you can't do solar, and black is when you can't do astro.

[LondonNeil]

Unless the big box above is red...then you do clouds

[Hughsie]

2 hours ago, Elp said:

Think you've got other problems...

They should have called me for the new Andrex advert.