When will humans land on Mars?

[F15Rules]

5 hours ago, HiveIndustries said:

As a species we should constantly try and increase our production and consumption of energy

What???? Because????😱😱🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

That sounds like something the Borg would say!

Further comment is futile..

Dave

[Paul M]

1 hour ago, DaveS said:

Unfortunately discussion about why "we" didn't follow up Apollo would break the forum rule about politics.

One part of the reason was growing public apathy with Apollo. A bit like someone said about Elvis's death; "Great career move!", Apollo 13 was considered by some as saving public interest in Apollo.

I felt the same with the Shuttle. It was only the tragic accidents that got my attention. And now I've watched hundreds of hours of coverage relating to both shuttle disasters. I guess its the human aspect of spaceflight that interests me. 

[HiveIndustries]

12 minutes ago, johninderby said:

Columbus knew that North America was there but thought he could sail south of it on his way to the far east  Unfortunately for him North America is a lot bigger then he realised. 🙄

What was he truly aware of though? Did he understand the circumference of the earth and some kind of reasonable expectation on distance needing to be traveled and there was just land in the way?

I don't have to explain on an astronomy forum that we understood the circumference of the earth from way earlier than that and by the 1400s astronomy or at least the knowledge of astronomy was beginning to become vogue. You'd have to think the royalty-level knowledge Columbus was playing in would have access to such information.

So much to that story I feel like will never add up.

[Paul M]

7 hours ago, johninderby said:

Irrelevant side note here but Columbus bought maps of the east coast of North America from fisherman in Bristol before setting off. They had been fishing mainly off the coast of Newfoundland for many years and the fishing vilage of Walker Newfoundland was founded in 1491. 

Wow! This is my fact of the week. History is very much my weak point but I feel I should have been aware of this!

[johninderby]

7 minutes ago, Paul M said:

Wow! This is my fact of the week. History is very much my weak point but I feel I should have been aware of this!

More facts aboit how long Europeans knew about the east coast of NA.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58996186

[HiveIndustries]

5 minutes ago, F15Rules said:

What???? Because????😱😱🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

That sounds like something the Borg would say!

Further comment is futile..

Dave

Energy consumption can be used to achieve the opposite of environmental destruction too! Usage of energy isn't a problem in and of itself, it's how we choose to generate and use it. We're far less guilty of, and paying for gluttony than we are paying for woeful and intentional ignorance with a lack of foresight.

This graph directly correlates with many measures everyone would agree are associated with increased human well being like poverty. The more it increases, the better it is for everyone.

We even break down theoretical civilizations by available energy and consumption.

We don't have to destroy the planet, we're choosing to.

Increased energy could bring us desalination and fresh water to help weather climate change to name just a single profound thing we're going to have to tackle in our lifetimes.

If we stopped destroying habitat and if that graph was devoid of greenhouse gasses but remained the same overall consumption, we wouldn't even be able to conceive the very conversation we're having right now.

[DaveS]

Regarding our geographical position, although we're suboptimal for equatorial launches the Sutherland Spaceport is well placed for polar orbits, which are very important for earth survey satellites. We also have a few airports with very long runways suitable for horizontal launches and landings Which Virgin Galactic is interested in, plus Skylon if it ever gets off the ground.

[HiveIndustries]

9 minutes ago, DaveS said:

Regarding our geographical position, although we're suboptimal for equatorial launches the Sutherland Spaceport is well placed for polar orbits, which are very important for earth survey satellites. We also have a few airports with very long runways suitable for horizontal launches and landings Which Virgin Galactic is interested in, plus Skylon if it ever gets off the ground.

Ok so I don't understand why. I need to appeal to an astrophysicist but from my understanding the only reason that site would offer any benefit for launching into a polar orbit would be it's clearance, not traveling over any population centers.

Polar orbits are pretty high on the list of "useful kinds of orbiting" if you could make such a list. You can survey an entire celestial body at low altitude on a polar orbit so I'm definitely not discounting the niche, I just don't understand why there would be any other requirement other then, "just make sure the rocket doesn't kill people if it explodes" for launching polar when placing your spaceport.

[johninderby]

Spaceport Cornwall

https://spaceportcornwall.com

 

[HiveIndustries]

At the risk of making the most ignorant comment an American has ever made, risking international incidents, war, and being cancelled, I don't see why this is hard, what is wrong with here?

Edit: Added more X's really the point is maintaining the ability to launch east which is far, far, from without value and in fact would likely have way more national value to Britain than any kind of polar launching operation would.

Edited October 24, 2021 by HiveIndustries

[DaveS]

I'm not sure, possibly due to being suitably remote, plus there could be land ownership issues (Very complicated in Scotland). But if Musk wants to land rockets on old oil platforms, we have plenty, and know how to build more.

[HiveIndustries]

6 minutes ago, DaveS said:

I'm not sure, possibly due to being suitably remote, plus there could be land ownership issues (Very complicated in Scotland). But if Musk wants to land rockets on old oil platforms, we have plenty, and know how to build more.

I would just have questions for my government, personally. The same argument about having friends comes into play and someone who has actual applicable knowledge and doesn't just create rocket parts (that will never actually fly) in 3D for visualization purposes can tell you if I'm talking out of my butt because I'm not even 100% certain and if it's happening or being proposed, I'm clearly missing something.

If my country was investing in its only major spaceport to keep us relevant and it didn't include eastward trajectories, questions, lots and lots of questions.

Edited October 24, 2021 by HiveIndustries

[DaveS]

Given our location heading east would likely cause rucksions with our Scandinavian neighbours. The North Sea isn't *that* wide, and your cross in Norfolk could have a trajectory that might land a malfunctioning rocket in continental Europe. You are fortunate in having a long east coast with only Atlantic Ocean to land duff stages into.

Spaceport Sutherland has a large expanse of open water to its north for malfunctioning rockets to fall into. Although Spaceport Cornwall faces in the "Wrong" direction, for air launched satellites this might not be such an issue, plus it's well placed for horizontal landings.

[HiveIndustries]

1 hour ago, DaveS said:

Given our location heading east would likely cause rucksions with our Scandinavian neighbours. The North Sea isn't *that* wide, and your cross in Norfolk could have a trajectory that might land a malfunctioning rocket in continental Europe. You are fortunate in having a long east coast with only Atlantic Ocean to land duff stages into.

Spaceport Sutherland has a large expanse of open water to its north for malfunctioning rockets to fall into. Although Spaceport Cornwall faces in the "Wrong" direction, for air launched satellites this might not be such an issue, plus it's well placed for horizontal landings.

Yeah that is a factor but it's never really stopped anything bad from happening before. When things get high in altitude, you eventually pass over and threaten something important, no matter what direction you're shooting your "no really it's just an actual repurposed ICBM with a scientific payload" rocket . I don't think Denmark is too worried about you guys taking revenge from that time they invaded your country year after endless year through raids and force via long ships and beards (are you?) and I actually think that sea is probably enough clearance to reasonably expect and account for safety. Musk wants to launch from TX, right? That's going to go over Florida directly while directly threatening a much larger swath if anything were to go truly out of control, wrong.

We have a rather prominent and expensive spaceport in California run by the military that comes close to rivaling KSC in a lot of ways, there are reasons to launch in a lot of different conditions, including going the "wrong way" but by far the most useful direction, especially for international cooperation and things like GEO is east. If I were King of England I'd want a civilian launch site that could point east.

[AstroGee]

Safety from falling debris over populated areas (ie Europe) must be a factor surely. Or maybe that doesn't count any more. That sea would be crossed very quickly for a launch I'd imagine.

[Viktiste]

11 hours ago, johninderby said:

Irrelevant side note here but Columbus bought maps of the east coast of North America from fisherman in Bristol before setting off. They had been fishing mainly off the coast of Newfoundland for many years and the fishing vilage of Walker Newfoundland was founded in 1491. 

Just about 500 years after Leiv Eirikson sailed there... [another irrelevant side note 🙂]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinland

Edited October 24, 2021 by Viktiste
Uuups, got the years wrong there

[AstroGee]

As for the original topic, I'd guess colonisation work would be underway after 2030, maybe not an actual meatbag human yet. I reckon the big players (Musk and China) would aim for 2030 and miss it by a couple of years, but that would provide the benchmark. Also, Musk will be 60 in 2031. He'll push for that perhaps as a goal.

It's entertaining that everything Musk has brought to market is in someway shape or form, destined to be a part of martian colony building. Solar power, tunnelling. And the cyber truck. I'm waiting for 'eco air conditioning' where a house is sealed completely from the outside to reduce costs, but actually it's just life support for mars.

 

[HiveIndustries]

I really don't know the answer, you guys spawned some pretty prolific progeny over here in the colonies and we have a lot of room to do whatever we want over unpopulated areas over seemingly endless geographic scales rivaled only by two other countries on the planet. Speaking of those other two, they don't have a problem doing it over population centers!

The first stage of a rocket is engaged and expended incredibly early in the flight of a rocket, more early than most people think so you're betting on an accident in the second stage, likely already well after Max Q, this should account for the majority of failures and maximum pressures but I'd be lying if I said I knew that for certain, it is a much smaller body than the Gulf of Mexico Musk wants to launch over.

Don't you guys call yourself an Empire and have islands and junk in our back yard? Isn't there a suitable British Virgin island or something?

 

 

Edited October 24, 2021 by HiveIndustries

[johninderby]

18 minutes ago, Viktiste said:

Just about 2500 years after Leiv Eirikson sailed there... [another irrelevant side note 🙂]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinland

See the link in my earlier post.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58996186

Edited October 24, 2021 by johninderby

[Peter Drew]

Good luck to anyone who sets off for Mars.  Things are bad enough here but it's said that the best day on Mars is worse than the worst day on Earth.  I'll stay here and watch.      🙂

[Viktiste]

I voted after 2038. 

Here is an interesting read about Elon Musk's thoughts about it, written by Tim Urban (4 part series on Elon Musk). https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html In part 3 (written in 2015) he guessed the first manned mission to mars in about 10 years. I'm thinking these people are way too optimistic by nature. I also think the dream of colonizing Mars is so costly it will not happen until we have no other choice. Life on mars is probably going to be pretty grim too, with temperatures on a lucky summer day ranging from +20ºC  to -150ºC the same night.  Better not be drunk and fall asleep on a late evening outside the Martian Bar 🤪

Edited October 24, 2021 by Viktiste

[AstroGee]

Humans are just biological boot loaders for AI and robotics. They are much more capable of surviving off planet conditions..

[Ouroboros]

What options if any are there to terraform Mars for human habitation?

[Ags]

Musk has spoken favorably of nuking the Martian poles to make them darker and sublimate. Slower but less radioactive is the idea to pump CFCs into the martian atmosphere to boost the greenhouse effect. Others have proposed orbital solar reflectors to melt the poles or bake the permafrost at lower latitudes. All of these will thicken the martian atmosphere, warm the planet dramatically and lead to a Martian "spring", potentially with liquid bodies of water on the surface. The air won't be breathable (in fact it will be deadly poisonous) but maybe you wouldn't need to wear a pressure suit when you venture out of your hab sphere.

I will claim to have invented a terraforming method myself, though I am not competent to do the math. High level clouds in the martian atmosphere raise surface temperatures by up to 20 degrees C, and are seeded by the small amount of space dust falling onto Mars. So... put a mass driver on Phobos or Deimos and pump an order of magnitude more dust into the upper Martian atmosphere! Martian climate modellers will shoot me down, but don't do the maths, just do it I say!

The problem is that any technique to raise Mars' temperature will just create a thicker (but still very thin) atmospere of CO2, with no Nitrogen. A thicker atmosphere is not necessarily more hospitable. It will be warmer by day and the nights will be less "chilly", but that means the weather will be more violent, and with thicker air the wind will have more impact.

All of these techniques bet on Mars being self-sustainingly more warm once the atmosphere is thickened - so once you have thickened the atmosphere you don't need to do constant maintenance.

By the way, people go on about Mars being too small and not having a magnetic field, so it can't hold on to the thickened atmosphere. That's true - on geological timescales, not human timescales. On those sort of timescales we have plenty of time to construct an artificial Mars magnetic field. Some Japanese engineers have even designed one for Earth (to compensate for a loss of magnetism during a polar reversal). Mars is smaller and more geologically stable so much easier to magnetise!

Edited October 25, 2021 by Ags

[Nik271]

Or if you can't make it, fake it. This one from 1978 is surprisingly good.

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by Nik271