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The BBC clear skies were spectacularly cloudy :(

If it is breaking up we may not get another chance to see this.

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The average speed of separation of fragments in new comets was about 1.3 m/s (Boehnhardt, H. 2004) so at least until the next 4 or 5 days the ISON should be seen as a single object even if existing fragments in separation keeping approximately the same upward light curve (since the fragments historically are subkilometers size).

Rare disappeared completely like Linear, in really between 40 comets that splits in the past only four disappeared.


So we have some more time to contemplate ISON :smiley:

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Current forecast for here means Tuesday morning will be the next chance to take a look. It'll be interesting to see if those 'wings' are visible. 

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Current forecast for here means Tuesday morning will be the next chance to take a look. It'll be interesting to see if those 'wings' are visible. 

yeah I'm just along the coast from you, gonna be getting up early that morning but will have have to go up the Downs to have any chance of seeing it I think.

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Confirmation of the breakup of the nucleus of the comet ISON in two fragments

Image captured by Jean-Francois Soulier yesterday morning, Nov. 16, between 0500 and 0600 UT and processed by Toni Scarmato.

1475775_10202581152513171_731475629_n.jp



Break up of the nucleus of Comet ISON detected in the image of Bruce Gary of November 14, 2013, processed by Toni Scarmato.

image012.jpg


source: http://digilander.libero.it/infosis/homepage/astronomia/comet1.html


Regards !

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You heard it first on SGL!

A quick scoot around the web has all the prognosticators claiming it's going to be OK....old news.

Thanks huckdarn! :)

Edited by Beulah

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Another interesting update.

In a vast and complex studie points that the cloud of debris expands very slowly, with a speed of expansion between 2 and 10 m / s. At these speeds the cloud takes a long time to get to three seconds of arc, which would be required for its fragments can be separated by ground-based telescopes.

The graph shows that the worst case scenarios (25% models) the cloud will not be able to reach 3 seconds, before the arc enters the comet sunlight, thus making it difficult to detect the fragments. In the best scenarios (75% of the models) the cloud reaches more than 3 arc seconds before entering the solar glare, making it possible to detect the fragments by ground-based telescopes.

The model also shows that the debris cloud will be easily detected after perihelion ... if it survives.



expansion-comparison-new.png


source: http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/cometspage/MODELRESULTS.html


Interesting to note that in a previous work (of 02/09/2013) studying the light curves of previous fragmented comets, Ferrin determine that the possibilities of ISON desintegrate are 100%

- http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1310/1310.0552.pdf


Regards !

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before entering the solar glare, making it possible to detect the fragments by ground-based telescopes.

 Very interesting, thanks for sharing and for the links.

I wonder if, when it is lost to us in the solar glare, will it (or the fragments/disintegration) be visible in any of the space instruments, SOHO, STEREO etc or will it be outside their fields of view ?

I think I read somewhere that perihelion is less than 1 solar diameter (?) which should put it within reach of LASCO ?

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Thank you, very interesting link

(very large link, nearly brought my humble little laptop to its knees :-!) )

which suggests that it should already be visible in HI2-A - so I then found my way to

http://secchi.nrl.navy.mil/png/a/hi/20131114/1024/20131114_220921_tbh2A.png

and I think you are right, the resolution is a problem,

I suppose ISON is in there somewhere ! but it will need an expert to show me where !!lol

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Edit out double post,

sorry glitch somewhere.

Mod delete this please

Edited by Ptarmigan

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Ahh sorry, I've been away for the week and just saw the pic. In a bit of a time bubble until I get up to speed. :D

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BBC Weather suggests clear all night, however, Met Office Radar is far from favourable. Fingers crossed ladies and gentlemen.

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Thank you, very interesting link

(very large link, nearly brought my humble little laptop to its knees :-!) )

which suggests that it should already be visible in HI2-A - so I then found my way to

http://secchi.nrl.navy.mil/png/a/hi/20131114/1024/20131114_220921_tbh2A.png

and I think you are right, the resolution is a problem,

I suppose ISON is in there somewhere ! but it will need an expert to show me where !!lol

Sorry for the size of the animation :p

But the controversies começaram, Lovejoy desagree that the images and graphics are a proof that ISON fragmented.

Well today and tomorrow ISON will be favorable position to the Messenger probe câmeras and observations are programated by NASA.

So we maybe we have a solution for the question in few hours.

Let's get tunned:

- http://messenger.jhuapl.edu/news_room/details.php?id=245

Regards !

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ok, I'm on red alert for any clearing in the clouds here!   If it has reached the same visual magnitude of Lovejoy then surely I can spot it at the 11th hour.  The reliably named 'Accuweather' is suggesting several clear nights this week, ha ha ha :shocked:

Good luck everyone trying!

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Confirmation of the breakup of the nucleus of the comet ISON in two fragments

Poster "Tonk" in another forum ( also I think he is here with another moniker) proposes that the "wings" are a result of bow shock.

Seems reasonable to me !

We shall see  ;)

or not as the case may be :)

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Confirmation of the breakup of the nucleus of the comet ISON in two fragments

Poster "Tonk" in another forum ( also I think he is here with another moniker) proposes that the "wings" are a result of bow shock.

Seems reasonable to me !

We shall see  ;)

or not as the case may be :)

Oh ho, more "503 Service Unavailable" , I may be about to post twice again!

Yep ! thort so, mods delete this please ? !

Edited by Ptarmigan

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