I want to Cash Out on my weather forecast

[Zermelo]

I don't gamble, but I know there are online betting sites where you can "cash out" your bet on the result of a match in advance of the final whistle.  Very useful if you've bet against Man Utd at home, for example.

I want the same facility implemented on Clear Outside.  I usually ignore any good news that's more than 24 hours ahead, as it almost always disappears in the interim, but it would be very handy to "cash out" on my current forecast for Saturday night:
 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Zermelo

[Elp]

What would your return be?

[globular]

Friday at 10pm is my best forecast for I don't know how long... but something tells me I shouldn't be an amber gambler.

 

[tomato]

47 minutes ago, globular said:

Friday at 10pm is my best forecast for I don't know how long... but something tells me I shouldn't be an amber gambler.

 

Wow, maybe a whole hour on Friday 13th. Perhaps best not to start my 6 panel mosaic…

[SteveNickolls]

I don't think it would be a bad thing to be colour blind when it comes to Clear Outside. I wish you well.

Cheers,

Steve

 

[Ouroboros]

The clear forecast for Saturday night must be accurate because other factors make it impossible for me to do any astronomy that night.

[bosun21]

I can’t even get the opportunity to cash in never mind out.

[wulfrun]

The beeb's forecast suggests that, from Sunday the 15th, for 8 consecutive days - there won't be a cloud in sight around here! And I believe this?

Edited October 11, 2023 by wulfrun

[tomato]

Yeah, if you want a consistently very optimistic forecast, look no further than BBC Weather.

[The Lazy Astronomer]

1 hour ago, tomato said:

Yeah, if you want a consistently very optimistic forecast, look no further than BBC Weather.

As far as I can tell, BBC weather doesn't factor in thin and/or high cloud into its forecast. I find it plenty accurate enough for a general forecast, but pretty useless for astronomy purposes.

Edit: And sure enough, in what I shall now refer to as @Ouroboros's rule, I have a perfect forecast for a night in which I have other engagements... No choice but to hold out hope that Tuesday's prediction comes to pass 🤞

Edited October 11, 2023 by The Lazy Astronomer

[Ouroboros]

Great. I’ve always wanted something named after me! 😆

[pipnina]

My clear outside has stayed red for so long, my last imaging session before last saturday was in mid august!

Even then, clearoutside can't tell you if the sky clarity is going to be any good, only that the sky will be visible. My trek to a bortle 4 area revealed that saturday was in fact very muggy and hazy despite the absence of clouds. 😕

[Ouroboros]

There was an interesting piece during the PM programme earlier about ‘now casting’ in which AI is being used to forecast what’s going to happen in the next few hours only. That after all is what we astronomers really want isn’t it?  Yes, it’s good to know when it might be clear (and it really is only a “might”) next Tuesday or whenever.  But what we really want to know now, this evening, tonight is what it’s going to do in the next few hours.  The AI uses current MET radar, satellite and weather data, compares that with previous data obtained over many years, to make a “now cast”.  I like the sound of that. It has the potential to be very useful. My money is on that being the most accurate. 

[Zermelo]

4 hours ago, Elp said:

What would your return be?

A few sucker holes, more than likely.

[Zermelo]

1 hour ago, Ouroboros said:

There was an interesting piece during the PM programme earlier about ‘now casting’ in which AI is being used to forecast what’s going to happen in the next few hours only. That after all is what we astronomers really want isn’t it?  Yes, it’s good to know when it might be clear (and it really is only a “might”) next Tuesday or whenever.  But what we really want to know now, this evening, tonight is what it’s going to do in the next few hours.  The AI uses current MET radar, satellite and weather data, compares that with previous data obtained over many years, to make a “now cast”.  I like the sound of that. It has the potential to be very useful. My money is on that being the most accurate. 

I heard that article too. At the rate that AI is coming on, there's a chance of some decent nowcasts before my eyesight or joints gives out.

[Elp]

AI will probably tell us to stay in our homes, for our own safety and wellbeing.

[Ouroboros]

3 minutes ago, Elp said:

AI will probably tell us to stay in our homes, for our own safety and wellbeing.

Elp: “Open the front door, AI.”

AI: “I’m sorry Elp. I’m afraid I can’t do that”. 

😀

[Elp]

I was under the impression they've been using such tech for years, they're not exactly using a few computers in a basement, they're channelling the data through supercomputers and data centres using physics models to predict the future (which in essence is crazy). I think the issue is more to do with resolution and depth. If you've ever tried recreating a particle simulation on a small scale you realise how computer intensive it is, and that's usually just one physics model. Try scaling that to a few metres, miles, towns, cities, counties, countries etc, and that's just 2D (on a basic scale), now add the increase in volume of height (3D) and the higher you go the larger the volume becomes due to circumference change as you go higher up. Exponentially more physical particles to model and simulate obeying different physics models and interacting and influencing each other, then real time data changes and it all needs updating. Suddenly sounds like an impossible task.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Elp

[Elp]

I think Back to the Future 2 promised us so much and we're still expecting it all to happen.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Elp

[WolfieGlos]

6 hours ago, tomato said:

Wow, maybe a whole hour on Friday 13th. Perhaps best not to start my 6 panel mosaic…

I'm halfway through a 6 panel mosaic I started in mid September....and sods law I'm away next week with the alleged clear skies that I would need to finish it off 🙄

[Zermelo]

Well, for once the forecast held:

and so I managed a short session this evening.  As well as a new moon, one of my neighbours was away too 😀

[callisto]

4 days of straight sunshine and clear skies up here.... what's this sorcery afflicted upon me