11 year solar sunspot cycle, causing wind

[Astroboffin]

Hi,

I was chatting to my father a few days ago and saying how windy it has been this year, at least where I live anyway, and guess over most of the country, and he said it is to do with the 11 year sunspot cycle, and that 1993, 2004 were also very windy years, and so now 2015.

So what is the 11 year sunspot cycle and is this true that it causes the wind we seem to be getting most of the time

Comments please

AB

[JamesF]

Lots of information here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

If he's got definite evidence that the solar cycle causes high winds though, I suspect there'll be a whole pile of researchers wanting to talk to him.  My understanding is there's not yet considered to be any reliable link between the solar cycle and our weather.

James

[Earl]

It will be interesting to see some results, but you really need decade upon decade of data if not century's to see pattens clearly.

[Astroboffin]

Lots of information here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

If he's got definite evidence that the solar cycle causes high winds though, I suspect there'll be a whole pile of researchers wanting to talk to him.  My understanding is there's not yet considered to be any reliable link between the solar cycle and our weather.

James

Lol, no he has no evidence other than his own records and memory, he use to have an ocean going sailing yacht so remembers the good sailing years, and he saw a pattern that's all, just wanted to hear other opinions

So the 11 year cycle of sunspots is correct then..?

Regards

AB

[Paul M]

Perhaps the best name in this field is Piers Corbyn, a controversial figure in the the world of climatology, meteorology and forecasting.

His work doesn't stand up well to peer review, apparently.

[JamesF]

So the 11 year cycle of sunspots is correct then..?

Yes, I believe it's fairly well agreed that there are cycles in the Sun's activity that last approximately eleven years (though there appears to be a good deal of variation) and that there are some identifiable effects it has here on Earth because of the electromagnetic effects of the solar wind.  It's the association with the weather that's more open to interpretation.

James

[JamesF]

There's also a list of solar cycles here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles.  It's fairly clear that the eleven year thing is quite approximate.  For instance, early 2014 was actually the "current" sunspot maximum, then early 2000 before that and mid 1989 before that.  I think your father might need a new hypothesis

James

[Joseki]

Agree with the above, but I just thought I'd mention that proper scientists (unlike Piers Corbyn) are researching it and publishing their research in decent journals.  For example, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JAS2866.1 (hope that link works) - the authors are leading UK scientists in the field btw.  The reason  the signal is hard to find is that max-to-min the change in solar energy is very small.  That variation isn't constant for different wavelengths and is stronger in UV  - which gets absorbed up high in the atmosphere - but UV is important there for the formation of ozone which can then affect the temperature.

[Astroboffin]

There's also a list of solar cycles here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles. It's fairly clear that the eleven year thing is quite approximate. For instance, early 2014 was actually the "current" sunspot maximum, then early 2000 before that and mid 1989 before that. I think your father might need a new hypothesis

Ok, I was not suggesting he was by any means an expert, or that what he was saying was at all true, but just he thought that it seemed like that, I think you are taking it a little to literal by saying he needs a new hypothesis.......

It was just an educational historical observation, by him, and I just wanted comments on it......OK

AB

[Zakalwe]

Lol, no he has no evidence other than his own records and memory, he use to have an ocean going sailing yacht so remembers the good sailing years, and he saw a pattern that's all, just wanted to hear other opinions

Our memory is notoriously fallible and memories are easily manipulated. Plus there's confirmation bias to take into account (he only remembers what he agrees with and forgets the times that he doesn't agree). Even if a pattern was established, then it's another step to say that the solar cycle caused it. Correlation does not equal causation.

If all he is going on is memory and some personal records then, at best, he's got a hunch.

[Earl]

Our memory is notoriously fallible and memories are easily manipulated. Plus there's confirmation bias to take into account (he only remembers what he agrees with and forgets the times that he doesn't agree). Even if a pattern was established, then it's another step to say that the solar cycle caused it. Correlation does not equal causation.

If all he is going on is memory and some personal records then, at best, he's got a hunch.

Yep its like the clear skies and full moon hunch. LOL

[Astroboffin]

I wish I had never mentioned it, I was just making a comment about something my father said, I was not in any way saying it was true or anything like that, and is being taken out of context, I even asked in my first post whether people thought this was true, Now people just want to have a dig at my father....

[Zakalwe]

Yep its like the clear skies and full moon hunch. LOL

Nah...that's fact! :grin:

[JamesF]

I wish I had never mentioned it, I was just making a comment about something my father said, I was not in any way saying it was true or anything like that, and is being taken out of context, I even asked in my first post whether people thought this was true, Now people just want to have a dig at my father....

Honestly, I think you're reading into this far more than people mean.  I'm certainly not having a dig at your father.  The smiley face is there for a reason.

And actually useful information (as well as more background on the solar cycle) has come out of it.  Confirmation bias and suchlike is a genuine issue and it's important to remember it when dealing with apocryphal data.  It's important when testing one's own memories too, such as the "clear sky/full Moon" events that people swear are true, but actually turn out to be rather different.

James

[LukeSkywatcher]

Personally i cant see any way in which the solar maximum/minimum cycle or solar wind would have any effect on Earth's weather. The Earth is protected by a magnetic field which deflects most of the solar wind away from us. Sure it gets concentrated at the north and south poles and this in turn gives us the northern and southern lights. 

Greenhouse gases on the other hand are created within Earth's atmosphere and they do appear to have an effect on our weather. Wetter,colder and windier in some places, while other places are becoming hotter and drier. 

In my mind, this is the culprit. 

P.S.~~Anyone remember the autumn/winter of 2013?. That was the worst i can remember in my life as the wettest and windiest. We here in the UK and Ireland were battered for weeks/months on end with Atlantic storms one after the other. 

[Earl]

, such as the "clear sky/full Moon" events that people swear are true, but actually turn out to be rather different.

James

But but but

[JamesF]

, such as the "clear sky/full Moon" events that people swear are true, but actually turn out to be rather different.

James

But but but

Yeah, I know, I know.  That people attribute it to confirmation bias is just confirmation bias

James

[Bubbles82]

Hi,

I was chatting to my father a few days ago and saying how windy it has been this year, at least where I live anyway, and guess over most of the country, and he said it is to do with the 11 year sunspot cycle, and that 1993, 2004 were also very windy years, and so now 2015.

So what is the 11 year sunspot cycle and is this true that it causes the wind we seem to be getting most of the time

Comments please

AB

Lots of things seem to have a pattern to them explainable or not depending on how you look at things. I can tell you this though it's always clear when I'm on nights and can't go out with my kit and no amount of data would ever convince me otherwise. [emoji2]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Astroboffin]

[ronin]

I believe there are 2 solar cycles, the one we are used to is approximately 11 years the other is a matter of a few hundred years.

When the long term cycle is down at the minimum we get long periods of no sunspots as the 11 year cycle is suppressed.

I suspect half the problem is that in an 11 year cycle we have a "peak" of say 3 years, the peak year itself and one either side. One of those years is likely to be windy, sunny, cloudy, wet, dry, cold, hot or something. So it can be fairly eay to attribute sunspots to weather.

Wasn't the last "peak" 2002 ? I recall standing outside looking at the sunspots on the sun - you didn't need a scope they were numerous and big enough that a filter and eyes were sufficent.

Actually would have thought that "windy" was not the best for sailing, you would want fine, calmish days of light breeze, I used to work somewhere for whatever reason hlaf the people in the team sailed. One built their own boat.

[Astroboffin]

I believe there are 2 solar cycles, the one we are used to is approximately 11 years the other is a matter of a few hundred years.

When the long term cycle is down at the minimum we get long periods of no sunspots as the 11 year cycle is suppressed.

I suspect half the problem is that in an 11 year cycle we have a "peak" of say 3 years, the peak year itself and one either side. One of those years is likely to be windy, sunny, cloudy, wet, dry, cold, hot or something. So it can be fairly eay to attribute sunspots to weather.

Wasn't the last "peak" 2002 ? I recall standing outside looking at the sunspots on the sun - you didn't need a scope they were numerous and big enough that a filter and eyes were sufficent.

Actually would have thought that "windy" was not the best for sailing, you would want fine, calmish days of light breeze, I used to work somewhere for whatever reason hlaf the people in the team sailed. One built their own boat.

I was talking about ocean crossing sailing, not on the local lake, lol, a very good stiff breeze, or in other words wind !!, needed for a 40 foot boat and a 50 ish foot high sail...

A light breeze just don't cut it.....

AB

[Essex nightsky]

Nah...that's fact! :grin:

I wish it was a fact... Was hoping to do some planetary imaging but clouded out

[symesie04]

It would seem logical to assume that changes in the solar weather does affect our local weather even if tiny in variance. However given our scat understanding and incredibly limited ability in predicting our local weather detecting any changes that may occur due to solar weather is incredibly difficult. Add to that the fact that any changes may not be instant and also determining if any changes are tied to the 11 year cycle or to any other term cycle and the complexity increases many fold.