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I think the Met Office do it just to wind me up...

JamesF

By JamesF
in The Astro Lounge

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JamesF

JamesF

Posted
Posted

Earlier today the forecast for the local area for this evening on the Met Office website was light cloud. No problem, just no chance to get out tonight. Mid afternoon, it changed to clear skies, so I got my hopes up only to have them dashed once again when around 6pm the forecast once again changed to cloudy. Which is how it has stayed until the last half hour or so, when the forecast for 10pm has changed once again to clear. Only I've looked outside. And I can't see anything for the dense cloud.

Bah!

James

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crashtestdummy

crashtestdummy

Posted
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thats why its called a weather forecast.seen the same today for my area but about 9pm it cleared up and managed an hour before it fully clouded over.accuweather on my phone has an astronomy prediction for the night skies which seems about as reliable as your forcast

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John

John

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I've got 50% cloud 50% clear here James. Enough cloud to to get in the way quite often but enough clear to tempt you into getting a scope out. I've packed in now as the cloud has started to dominate but did manage my best view of the Veil this season around an hour ago :smiley:

Pretty frustrating really though - the transparency in the gaps is very good and it could have been a great night :undecided:

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ronin

ronin

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Yes but above the cloud it is nice and clear. :eek: :eek:

So they are correct in a way as they did not specify the altitude. :Envy: :Envy:

At one altitude it is cloudy at another it is clear. :grin: :grin:

You just happen to be at the wrong one. :evil: :evil:

Do the Met Office issue disclaimers? :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

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euphony

euphony

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Earlier today the forecast for the local area for this evening on the Met Office website was light cloud. No problem, just no chance to get out tonight. Mid afternoon, it changed to clear skies, so I got my hopes up only to have them dashed once again when around 6pm the forecast once again changed to cloudy. Which is how it has stayed until the last half hour or so, when the forecast for 10pm has changed once again to clear. Only I've looked outside. And I can't see anything for the dense cloud.

Bah!

James

I get this problem 9 times out of 10, and it drives me bonkers. I look at 4 different weather sites now and they all generally tell me something different. If they all say the same thing then I consider that the best possible sign that it should do what they say!

The normal trick they play on me is to tell me it's cloudy on a night when i don't have to get up early. I decide not to set up, as it's clearly not going to be worth it and settle down to watch a film and have a few cold ones, only to find before I go to bed that the sky is now completely clear and I could have set up after all! Grrrrrrrrrrr........

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Naemeth

Naemeth

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They all get it wrong...

Take just now for an example, BBC said no rain until 13:00 which would be a "light shower", this "light shower" (which was actually a very heavy shower) started 20 or so minutes ago and has now just finished.

I think the best way to know what the weather is is to look outside.

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Kbramley

Kbramley

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I have used www.sat24.com quite successfully a few times, looking at the cloud, direction and general thickness its possible to get as feel for the next few hours. Several times I have noticed the clouds are "thinning" rapidly as the day draws on and low and behold by night fall the skies are clear. The only problem is the visible sat only works up until sunset, then you have to rely on the IR one which I find harder to interpret.

The site also works wonders for predicting the snow fall when snowboarding :), although generally the opposite happens then for me, crystal clear blue skies for the whole week the last 3 times I have been, not a cloud or snow flake in sight lol :)

HTH

Keith

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Donkeiller

Donkeiller

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If the Met Office can't get its hourly forecasts accurate, what chance does it have with their 5, 10 and 50 year climate "projections"?

To claim, as they do, that these projections have any skill is to claim predictive power over an inherently chaotic system.

They know that this cannot be true, but it is what their political masters have asked for to justify "Green" taxes.

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JamesF

JamesF

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If the Met Office can't get its hourly forecasts accurate, what chance does it have with their 5, 10 and 50 year climate "projections"?

To claim, as they do, that these projections have any skill is to claim predictive power over an inherently chaotic system.

They know that this cannot be true, but it is what their political masters have asked for to justify "Green" taxes.

Oh dear. You played the politics card. The thread is now over.

James

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Shibby

Shibby

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Met office claim to be much more accurate than that! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts Of course, we only really remember when they get it wrong!

I unfortunately spent (the usual) 1 hour setting up last night and as soon as PHD finished calibrating and I was ready to go, the clouds rolled in and stayed in :( Wish I had trusted 7Timer!

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Naemeth

Naemeth

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Met office claim to be much more accurate than that! http://www.metoffice...uracy/forecasts Of course, we only really remember when they get it wrong!

I unfortunately spent (the usual) 1 hour setting up last night and as soon as PHD finished calibrating and I was ready to go, the clouds rolled in and stayed in :( Wish I had trusted 7Timer!

I note most of them are either the "three hourly" ones or the one day ones. 28% of the time they get it wrong for rain, 3 hours before the time they forecast. However, most of them are getting better, and maybe in another decade or two, accuracy may be up to 90% on the day for rain.

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