Strong aurora predicted for Thursday night

[Leo S]

The NASA model is showing a cannibalistic CME headed our way on Thursday night/Friday morning.  If you click the link and play through the sequence you can see that the prediction is for a very high (as high as I've seen before now) plasma density. Note the black line intersecting Earth (the green dot) in this screenshot:

The black line is indicating a plasma density of ~60 cm3! The storm we got on Nov 24 (edit: I meant to say Nov 05!) this year was perhaps 20-30 cm3 I think (?), so this could be significantly stronger if the prediction is anything to go by!

The only fly in the ointment is timing, which might not be great for the UK, but it's possible it could hit earlier than expected.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Leo S

[SteveNickolls]

Thanks for the heads up. Really hope it's not cloudy would love to see/image the display.

Cheers,

Steve

Edited November 30, 2023 by SteveNickolls

[Leo S]

It's actually not looking too bad here after midnight according to the forecast. Hopefully it hits early as I can't do very late these days.

Good luck to all!

[Shimrod]

23 minutes ago, Leo S said:

It's actually not looking too bad here after midnight according to the forecast. Hopefully it hits early as I can't do very late these days.

Good luck to all!

It looks more like early morning than late at night.  These times are UTC:  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

[scotty1]

Mention of this on Spaceweather 

https://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

[mcrowle]

The forecast here in Cornwall has it clearing from about 5am tomorrow, so I plan to set an early alarm and check conditions before dawn in case activity starts early. Then Friday night looks clear. 

Regards, and good luck! Mike.

[MalcolmP]

Shame about the moon though !
Is this activity at ACE too early to get excited ?
Bz nicely going -ve just over an hour ago, Bt not very strong (yet?) though.
Bit of a kick now showing up on AuroraWatch magnetometers.

I've added a yellow tick for midnight

 

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by MalcolmP

[Roy Challen]

Nothing going on in the south of England yet.

[mcrowle]

2 hours ago, Roy Challen said:

Nothing going on in the south of England yet.

Nor at 5am. Spaceweather.com report one CME arrived after midnight, but the main event is still expected at midday our time. Going back to bed!

Regards, Mike.

[Roy Challen]

51 minutes ago, mcrowle said:

Nor at 5am. Spaceweather.com report one CME arrived after midnight, but the main event is still expected at midday our time. Going back to bed!

Regards, Mike.

Seeing as it clouded over at about 4am, in SW Hertfordshire at least, the aurora is probably blazing away now😁

Edited December 1, 2023 by Roy Challen

[michael8554]

Nothing to report here (Wiltshire), clouded over by 3am.

Michael

[scotty1]

Looks like the UK is in the wrong hemisphere this time. 

[Leo S]

Yes, looks like we missed out this time. The ace-mag-swepam chart did show at least one very high density reading (one orange dot above 100 cm3) but perhaps that was just a false reading, as there was not anything else at that level. I was clouded out by 01:00 anyway.

Either way, there should be more opportunities to come.

[scotty1]

The Aurora activity seems to be increasing again. 

 

 

[Carbon Brush]

Heard a report from a radio amatuer. Lots os auroral propagation. This is when VHF/UHF/microwave signals get reflected by the ionisation in the upper atmosphere.
He told me of UK operators getting in touch with Sierra Leone on 430MHz.
To get this into context, it is a bit like you getting a TV picture from Africa, instead of your local transmitter.
There is a lot of ionisation up there tonight.

Absolutely nothing doing visually. Well actually there might be a fantastic fireworks display and I would have no idea.
Just driven home from work quite slowly due to dense fog.

[Ludd]

Looking good in Bucks

[Ludd]

…and now completely clouded over!

[Elp]

Assume you were looking directly north?

[Ludd]

Yes, straight towards Ursa Major, over the top of our local sewage treatment works!

Edited December 1, 2023 by Ludd

[Elp]

Alas, nothing. Maybe I'll see it one day.

[mcrowle]

Did catch some purple on camera after 6pm, though only with some test shots. Once I’d set up to image in earnest it had faded. Think I missed the peak, but will keep an eye on conditions (of course, the gibbous Moon will not help!).

Regards, Mike.

 

[scotty1]

Phone photo about 18.30GMT this evening.

The Aurora is still quite active, but fog has arrived now. Can't see the fog shifting tonight. 

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by scotty1

[mcrowle]

This was about 18:15. Not great, but the best of my captures. 14mm lens, but rather cropped to level the horizon (I hadn’t yet levelled as it was only a test shot).

Regards, Mike.

Edited December 1, 2023 by mcrowle

[Paul M]

My firstvaurora image!

Taken from rural Cumbria but overlooking the bright lights of Penrith.

[scotty1]

12 minutes ago, Paul M said:

My firstvaurora image!

Taken from rural Cumbria but overlooking the bright lights of Penrith.

It's woth taking more photos, as the Aurora is ramping up on the app.....

 

Thick fog here. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by scotty1