Cloud cover

[Gottzi]

I know I've been away from the hobby for a while but I seriously cannot remember there being so much cloud before. Is the general consensus that the nights with cloud are more than they used to be. Really starting to get me down just wanna get out there but once I'm out give it 15 minutes and there's nothing to see.

[Ruud]

It is Autumn of course, and there's climate change as well.

Familiar with the meteoblue astronomical forecast?

It might help a bit for planning around the clouds: 
https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/colchester_united-kingdom_2652618

[dannybgoode]

I agree. I’ve been looking at getting my gear set up having had the year off so far but it is always cloudy. 
 

This time last year I got at least some setting in but so far this year - nothing. 

[Gottzi]

31 minutes ago, Ruud said:

It is Autumn of course, and there's climate change as well.

Familiar with the meteoblue astronomical forecast?

It might help a bit for planning around the clouds: 
https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/colchester_united-kingdom_2652618

Thanks, never used this. Currently using the Clear outside app, but not convinced it's that accurate.

[Marvin Jenkins]

Hey Gottzi, I am more blue than you. As you can see I am am based in SW France and my last observational opportunity was October 9th !!!

I looked at my Astro diary for last year, my first year in this pursuit, and I will type it word for word. 
 

Feb 10th 2018, M 39 M 34 clusters, M 31 plus NGC 205, just 15 minutes until the clouds rolled in.

April 10th 2018, and I missed just two nights unexpected viewing, with bad seeing.

June 23rd 2018!!!!! I was new to this and champing at the bit. Didn’t miss an opportunity and I went from Feb 10 to June 23rd with two or three unexpected nights viewing.

Everyone is banging on about light pollution, I would say our biggest threat is cloud due to climate change. Light pollution is something we can do something about, but if your skies, like mine are covered in cloud, who cares about street lights.

Am I wrong? Many of you on here are lifers. My experience is just a couple of years, but I feel that if our skies are covered with cloud then it doesn’t matter if your neighbour has a security light.

Now I want to say, before criticism pours in. I am an astronomer, I have like most people a heart felt desire for darker skies, cleaner air, better environment, but I feel things are getting worse not better, sorry for the rant and if Gottzi disagrees then please post, I won’t object.

Marvin

[Gottzi]

Totally agree, no point in worrying about light pollution if you can't see the sky in the first place.

[Marvin Jenkins]

There must be members of this forum who have been ‘at it’ for decades. I have been lead to believe the old schoolers keep Astro diaries, I was prompted too.

What does this mine of info give Gottzi and myself aspiration for future viewing. Of course, Mr Gottzi, I do not speak for you, so if you feel differently to my post please feel free to say.

There must be an amazing diary based history of visual astronomy that could be compared to today’s night skies. Compare that, to what we have now!

Marv 

[Gottzi]

No Marvin I 100% agree, even compared to a couple of years ago there appears to be more cloudy nights. I have never kept a record but I'm sure this is the case. Now I wish I had records to look back on. What about our more experienced colleagues, want do you think?

[Marvin Jenkins]

Gottzi, they have the diaries to compare against current weather. I know where my bets would be placed. Weather is getting angry! I am a landscape gardener and I am having to change how and when i an doing things, it’s weather effected.

Marv

[Gottzi]

I don't doubt it Marvin, Is it global warming that is causing the extra cloud cover, after all more warmth means more water vapour.

[Marvin Jenkins]

It would be good hear from some of the old timers (sorry) about how many nights clear observing they were able to undertake. 
I am going to try a working mans equation of how many nights in one year an ordinary joe, fixated with astronomy can actually observe the heavens.

Take out the twelve full moon weeks. Temper that with weather, touched on here already. The six or seven sessions missed due to work commitments, I am self employed so not really a problem. Two sessions missed due to sickness in one year. And.... I know you are not supposed to start a sentence with And, but missing the whole of August as it’s just rubbish.

I will be back in a bit, after crunching some numbers with a Casio.

Marv

[Rob Sellent]

Spain's climate variability is huge. It has mountains, skiing resorts, beaches, desert and scrub lands, lush green regions and so on, so take what I say with a pinch of salt. Although I've moved a far bit, I have only been star/solar gazing on the eastern half for the last 20 years or so. What I've noticed is the following:

• heat waves, their duration and intensity have been increasing
• there are significantly less cold spells and they are significantly less intense (mid November and we're still in the mid to high 20ºCs)
• precipitation is generally decreasing and droughts are generally increasing
• when it does rain, it is generally more intense and violent

On average, I reckon I could squeeze at least 200 night sessions a year and around 300 day sessions. Obviously, doing such a thing I'd go nuts and get bored very quickly, but the opportunity is there if one so desired.

If this trend continues, I reckon within a 100 years or so, Andalucia will become mainly desert and huge areas around Aragon, Castilla de la Mancha, Murcia and Valencia will become extremely arid. 

[cletrac1922]

Gottzi

Welcome from Land Down Under

At the moment, we are in a Solar Minimum, which means northern hemisphere goes into permanent wet, even a freeze

Going to be lot more cloud cover than normal

Southern Hemisphere goes into permanent drought which we have been experiencing last 4 years

Last night, when moon was rising, was shrouded with smoke pollution from bush fires around where I am

Western horizon, was able to make out Venus, Jupiter and Saturn, through the haze, nothing else

Everyone is blaming global warming, it is our sun, which dictates our weather pattern

Monitor Spaceweather every day what is happening with our sun

https://www.spaceweather.com/   

John

 

 

 

[Rob Sellent]

9 minutes ago, cletrac1922 said:

Everyone is blaming global warming, it is our sun, which dictates our weather pattern

Maybe a peer reviewed paper for NASA's climate scientists is in order? Hate to think their own folk are labouring under a misapprehension: NASA: Sun's Role in Climate Change

Edited November 14, 2019 by Rob Sellent

[Aramcheck]

I'd argue that even if it is cloudy, light pollution is still a big problem. I recently went through the ALAN (Artificial Light At Night) literature database to see how many scientific papers were listed relating to the effects of light pollution on wildlife & found over 600 entries.

Related to the Climate change argument, the impact of aircraft contrails which create more high altitude cloud should also be considered. An old 'Horizon' documentary which is on vimeo is quite scary: https://vimeo.com/138779240 (More recent research has shown that the contrails have an additional net warming effect from reflecting more heat from the earths surface than they sunlight they block).

I just need one of these: https://www.firstlightoptics.com/misc/zarkov-cloud-gun.html 😀

[Ships and Stars]

I've had some decent nights hunting DSOs this autumn around Aberdeen, seems like most of the cloud/rain here lately (a substantial amount!) has coincided with the current lunar phase, so that rules out most DSO hunting for me anyway. 

Straying from the cloud cover topic a bit, I use https://www.mooncalc.org  to determine what evenings (or mornings) I can start DSO viewing again (currently around Nov 21) and then religiously check Met Office, Ventusky, Clear Outside and perhaps Meteoblue (just started looking at that one) for a window of clear opportunity, even down to just an hour or two. With work and family life, if it is looking good that night, I'll have gear on standby ready to nip out.

I can view from home if the weather window is dodgy and time is severely limited, but LP is simply awful from local businesses. I gorilla-glued 10cm velcro strips on top of their two closest 1,000 lumen flood lights (there are five which stay on from 3:30pm to 7am, seven days a week, even though they are only open very limited hours, mostly during the day, no one cares, trust me! This makes a considerable difference. We are the only house affected by these lights, and the business owners could literally care less, that goes for a number of issues which directly affect us, non-astro related. These businesses have not been good neighbours, they don't even use the area with the lights, and we are no longer on speaking terms unless I'm telling them off for blocking our drive, an almost daily occurrence. 

Anyway, I simply use Met Office most frequently. It can change considerably at the last minute, but at least they continually update it.

Here are my LP shields for the 1,000 lumen flood lights I made from a heavy duty produce box from Lidl. Simple, quick to stick up and remove in seconds after my session is over, and if someone rips them down, I'm not out anything.

Hope the cloud cover eases, it's still early days in the viewing season folks. Fingers crossed.

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Ships and Stars

[The Admiral]

14 hours ago, Ruud said:

It might help a bit for planning around the clouds: 
https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/outdoorsports/seeing/colchester_united-kingdom_2652618

 

14 hours ago, Gottzi said:

Thanks, never used this. Currently using the Clear outside app, but not convinced it's that accurate.

Well, the reality is that no forecasts are accurate, they are at best a best estimate, at least for our very variable maritime climate. If you look at the 7-day forecast/multimodel you'll get an idea of just how variable the predictions are between different weather models. And that doesn't take into account the place to place variation either. For example,

If anything, I prefer to look at the satellite images real time showing clouds and try to make some judgement as to what is going to happen, but even that often fails!

As to whether anything is worse now I don't have any objective data, but it seems worse, at least, this year!

Ian

[Nigella Bryant]

I might be wrong, but I think I remember reading an article that during sunspot minimum there's more cloud due to less energy reaching the earth. This may be completely bogus so don't have a go, lol. It's logged in the back of my mind, lol. 

[joe aguiar]

I have a friend on face book that's 97% of everything he writes is only about weather and temp.

we even lived together for like 3.5 years together few years ago. he even changes his plans if it snows or rain even a dinner with me or anyone else, as well as going to stores groceries etc. I have told him its weather its not to be the same everyday, even week to week month to month and year to year who says weather has to be 100% the same???

I don't understand why people think this way

there has been several clear nights this last month and even the last few months. I have seen Jupiter and Saturn the last few months. I have made several viewing for my utube channel even do some comparisions.

This is about the same even since the 90's. Of course it also depends on location country etc. Some countries like mine get cold winters as well as rain. other places get no snow but has rainy seasons. earth has lots different conditions and even 100km away can have a different weather.

I have seen this since I started in 90s and still seems the same where iam.

most months and years I would say u get about 5 to 10 days max a month clear (yes that's a wide spread BUT again its weather it changes it cant be garrentied). I have learned this like 30 years ago, as well as told many others who got into this hobby. if its clear you need to obseve. If your going out to a bar club or dinner cancel it and go next day, as next dat or a week can be cloudy.

if you do it the other way make plans and if its clear still go to dinner/bar/club you choose that over obsevering and try to obseve next day and it doesn't work out then its tough luck.

as I just said its probally norm to say 5 to 10 days clear a month is average and if you cant do any due to other things in life then iam not sue this hoobu maybe right for some people.

I guess I look at it like if I want to look at a certain flocks of bird that fly south in oct but that month I cant make it or wait till nov and if they are gone then they are gone. If I hunt (which I don't belivie in) and I choose not to go hunting this week when its available but don't go and go next months when its not allowed then its tough luck.

we need to do this hobby when we can when we get the chance SURE if you have a dinner date the other person may get upset BUT that's where YOU have to decide whats more important and if you choose dinner then don't get upset you made a dissision.

joejaguar