Observable nights in S Wales 2013 - wrap up

[stevetynant]

Over 38% of the nights over the last year were chances to observe in South Wales which is in excess of 2 nights every week -  and who wouldn't have settled for that at the beginning of the year.

Well done to James (Astro-Joe) for getting closest at 19% but even that proved way too conservative a guess- that would indicate to me that either things are no where near as bad as we think they are, 2013 was an exceptional observing year or that Welsh people bogged down by the rain are a naturally pessimistic race .

Nobody in this part of the World will be surprised that it rained virtually every other day this year despite having the best summer for decades - snow, nearly 10% of the time which should remind everyone that winter here has really not started yet- seems very similar to last year when the harshest conditions and strangely the best observing came after Christmas.

Autumn has confirmed my suspicions that it is the worst time of the year to observe though there are still high amounts of dew present unsurprisingly given the amount of rainfall over the past few months.

Perhaps the most interesting thing I came up with this year is what I now know as the 9 day rule - in 2013, in S Wales at least, there was no period longer than 9 consecutive days when you could not observe- equally the longest consecutive run of observable nights was also 9 - and that happened twice in 2013.

I think I'm going to kick off 2014 with a similar type of data log but build in 2013 results to provide a comparative element although as my weather station now refuses to talk to windows with 64 bit I might have to investigate other ways of getting the weather temp extremes .

Would be interesting to see how other parts of the SGL members fair for comparison - no wonder Wales is such a green and pleasant land

Happy New Year to all.    

Final data stats copied below

Day  365  31st December  2013   Observable nights  2013   140 / 365  38.35%__________ High point at 43.09% 3rd Sept 2013

January   13 Observable nights____3_____ 9.67%
February 13 Observable nights __ 14 ____50.00%_____   
March 13   Observable nights____ 11___ 35.48 %
April 13 Observable nights_______14____35.00 %
May 13 Observable nights_______ 13____41.94%
June 13 Observable nights______12____40.00%
July 13 Observable nights_______19 ___61.29%________Number 1 month for 2013
Aug 13 Observable nights_______17____54.83%
Sep 13 Observable nights________9_____33.3%
Oct 13 Observable nights________9______29.03%
Nov 13 Observable nights________11____36.67%_

Dec 13 Observable nights_______8_____25.80%

Rain during day   182/365 ___49.86%_____ Snow during day  30/365____8.21% 

Consecutive Non Observable nights  1 (starting  31 Dec 2013)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 
Consecutive Observable nights___   x  (starting 31 Dec 2013)___    Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____9   (29 Mar to 6 Apr 2013) 

Group Observing Session planned (inc 28 Dec 13)  18   Group Observing Session Cancelled  11     61 % cancelled   (Weather related only)  

Lowest Temperature recorded during   2013__   - 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00  
Highest Temperature recorded during  2013 ___ 31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00

Astro Panel - seems to be back up to speed again - but still not telling me what I want to see- ie no clouds

 

Personal Observing sessions - 15  

Predictions for observable nights 2013   (Currently at   38.35 %)

Stevetynant  15%, Garethmob 17%, Stuy 15.9%, Astro Joe 19%,  Mr Flibble 12.6%, Texas Pete 16.16%, L8-Nite  13.7%, Lenny 147  10.96% , Rhys Hardwick_16.44%, SparkyJon 8.22 %

[JamesF]

That's very interesting data to have collected, Steve.  Well worth the effort.

Would you mind repeating your definition of an "observable night" here?

James

[stevetynant]

Hi James - yes of course - this is what I posted on the very first post of the thread and its pretty much what I've stuck to for the past year.

"Its a pretty subjective count really - it only applies to where I live in the Rhymney Valley and is a general observation of the conditions - after all it could be raining when I get home from work but glorious black night when I wake up and peer out the window at 3am - so for it to count as an observable night it needs to be at least an hour of good skies between 5pm and midnight (later on the weekend perhaps) but in reality that is the window I usually have, though any suggestions welcome (other than letting me know I'm a list freak which I already know thanks very much) "

It was not meant as a scientific experiment just to give myself an indication of how many nights there were actually chances to observe and not just  the usual pessimistic anecdotal observations. I don't have any equipment to back up these statistics other than the weather station I use and my personal observations

In a lot of ways I don't think it is possible to get exact statistics- only personal observations - which is why I stuck to my own general guideline - obviously some people have scopes that could take an hour to cool down, others won't go out with a full moon, some not in the wind but then there are those who have sheltered spots or observatories and who may enjoy luna observations. As with the scopes themselves there's not a one size fits all answer but Its been interesting to me at least and a true reflection of my observations in this part of the world which I hope would be of interest to others as well.

All the best

Steve

[JamesF]

That seems like a fair definition to me.  To my way of thinking there's a difference between "observable nights" and "practicable observable nights".  A clear spell between 3am and 5am might make an "observable night", but I'm not staying up to see if that happens and probably once I'm in bed there's no way I'd wake up for it either, regardless of whether I have to be up for work in the morning or not.

So your stats seem to me to be a good measure of "practicable observable nights".  I'm genuinely surprised that the figure has come out so high.  I guess it means that if you have an observatory or other setup that allows you to get out at short notice, and even more so if you have some means to alert you to clear sky that doesn't involve looking out of the window every ten minutes, then it is possible to get a lot of observing done even somewhere as renowned for being "a bit on the damp side" as Wales

James

[stevetynant]

"somewhere as renowned for being "a bit on the damp side" as Wales  :)" 

Thats putting it mildly lol

Yes I suppose "practical observing nights" - would be an apt description - thinking in that way though the actual observable nights would probably be much higher.

I can't help feeling that astronomers in the UK are generally negative when it comes to thinking about how often they could reasonably observe- its like the current awful weather we are experiencing jaundices their views which for me at least are not born out by the facts. Never in 2013 did we go past 9 days without an observing chance - perhaps people tell themselves it has to be pristine, no moon and cold/dry to be worthwhile getting outside - obviously its what we want but those special nights are fewer and far between with our climate. - It was also intersting to me how few times I actually took my scope out this year despite the numerous opportunities so I'm just as guilty as everyone else in this respect although my binoculars have seen a lot of action this year and I'm seriuosly contemplating getting something more substantial than my 10x50s which have seen a lot of use.

[JamesF]

I can't help feeling that astronomers in the UK are generally negative when it comes to thinking about how often they could reasonably observe- its like the current awful weather we are experiencing jaundices their views which for me at least are not born out by the facts. Never in 2013 did we go past 9 days without an observing chance - perhaps people tell themselves it has to be pristine, no moon and cold/dry to be worthwhile getting outside - obviously its what we want but those special nights are fewer and far between with our climate. - It was also intersting to me how few times I actually took my scope out this year despite the numerous opportunities so I'm just as guilty as everyone else in this respect although my binoculars have seen a lot of action this year and I'm seriuosly contemplating getting something more substantial than my 10x50s which have seen a lot of use.

I wonder if this is because we get relatively few "completely clear" nights and quite a lot more that are "clear at times" that are quite unpredictable and therefore get missed because we end up doing something else?

Perhaps better planning is required.  For instance, I tend not to go out if the clear spells are short because I don't have any way to stop things being rained on if the weather changes suddenly.  But perhaps if I got on with making a decent binocular mount and planned a list of binocular targets then I could make use of those times -- leave the mount outside and when I see a clear patch just hook up the binoculars and go.  I could probably even work from the shade of the house, meaning a sudden downpour wouldn't necessarily be a problem.

James

[AstroJOE]

Great summary Steve. I must admit to feeling slightly embarrassed to be the 'winner' with a guess which was still 50% off the actual result!

My definition of an observable night also doesn't include ones when I've already put a signifant dent in a bottle of red after putting the kids to bed.... Which is why, for me at least, 19% is probably more accurate!! ; )

[JamesF]

My definition of an observable night also doesn't include ones when I've already put a signifant dent in a bottle of red after putting the kids to bed....

Ah, yes, I'm familiar with that situation, too

James

[stevetynant]

I think we could start a whole new thread on reasons not to observe lol

[laser_jock99]

Interesting stats there. No real surprises other than winter being worse than I would normally expect?

[L8-Nite]

I think we could start a whole new thread on reasons not to observe lol

Yeah, but one clear night, and the inspiration returns. 

Got to keep thinking good thoughts.  

[Rhys Hardwick]

Absolutely Mike, after what seems like an age since I last observed, with the handful of clear nights and a new scope, I well and truly have the bug again!

[lennylovit]

RIOJA is my downfall    as well

Lenny

[AstroJOE]

RIOJA is my downfall    as well

Lenny

I've decided to 'dry out' for a month in January so hopefully I'll be able to get a few more sessions in with the scope this month than usual. So far I've only failed to stick to it once (Friday night but it was raining anyway ). I did at least manage an hour between the clouds last night. Skies were crystal clear for a short time by me around 9pm. 

[L8-Nite]

I left the little scope in the car, and was bobbing in and out of the house for quick peeks till about 2:30 am.

As you said James, the seeing was good, just not as many stars are visible in my neck of the woods as

compared to Blaenavon; it would be nice if the site were closer.  

[Mr Flibble]

Rain during day   182/365 ___49.86%__

I keep staring at this in disbelief!! I knew it was bad in this little corner of the globe but surely not this bad.......

Come on 2014 and get your act together!

[stevetynant]

Well 6th January today David and 100% rain to date - believe lol