How dangerous is a supernova ?

[John]

With the supernova SN 2013ixf still glowing at around magnitude 11.5 in Messier 101, I've been doing quite a bit of reading on these events and this one in particular.

SN 2013ixf is the closest supernova seen in the past 5 years although it is still ~20 million light years away. It is the 2nd closest in the past 10 years.

A couple of the sources that I found discussed the potential impact that such an event might have on nearby civilisations and a statistic that I saw repeated more than once was that significant impacts might be experienced by a civilisation existing within 160 light years of a Type II supernova event (SN 2013ixf has been classified as a type II supernova). 

What the term "significant impacts" means I've no idea and I suspect that the authors didn't know either but presumably more than just visual. I'm sure that stars which might be candidates to trigger such a catastrophic event are catalogued somewhere, although there is nothing we can do other than observe in any event. Betelgeuse is an often quoted candidate as a progenitor star for a supernova. It lies at a little more than 500 light years distant so perhaps we won't be affected much if it does go "pop" other than having some fascinating observing, imaging and research opportunities 🙂

Interestingly, the most recent bright supernova within our galaxy occurred in 1604. It was observed by Kepler and many others. Apparently the supernova outshone Jupiter for a while and was visible to the naked eye in twilight. That one occurred around 20,000 light years away so, other than the optical spectacle, of no risk to the human race.

Tycho Brahe's supernova, which seems to have been a type 1a, was observed in 1572 in Cassiopeia and is currently thought to have occurred at a distance of between 8,000 and 10,000 light years. That one was clearly visible to the naked eye in daylight for some months according to reports.

Going back to Betelgeuse, the giant star experienced an unusual dimming event in 2019 and, at that time, there was talk of whether this might signal the onset of a supernova event. Recent research links this dimming to a substantial mass ejection from the star but I think it is acknowledged that this red supergiant may well be in the latter phases of it's life, although these could well last many 1000's of years of course.

If alpha Orionis does do something spectacular then we will certainly get an amazing show to watch. Hopefully though, if the estimates are correct, we will survive to tell the tales to those that follow us 🙂

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by John

[RT65CB-SWL]

There were discussions about dust clouds limiting the magnitude of Betelgeuse, instead of it going supernovae. I at the time, thought that it was dust.

Would be interesting to read what other SGL'ers think.

[wimvb]

According to a recent article, Betelgeuse is expected to go supernova within decades. We might experience it during our lifetime. See drBecky's latest video for details.

 

[Ratlet]

PBS Spacetime had a good video earlier this week covering exactly this question:

 

[jjohnson3803]

Everything I've read (so far) indicates no threat of an extinction event here.  There is some debate that staring at it might cause eye damage, but I think that's a bit far-fetched.

It would be spectacular to see, but it's going to ruin the looks of Orion for me once it fades.  🙁

[Space Hopper]

I think a Gamma Ray burst in our direction is more dangerous isn't it ??

[maw lod qan]

I read on an internet link that with this SN, they believe ANY type of life would have definitely ended within 10ly. If I did my math correctly,  that's roughly 60 trillion miles.

Hard for my meager mind to comprehend, but it discussed atmospheres being stripped away, surfaces cooked.

Maybe the figure of 160 ly is taking in account of many things other than the big boom itself.

But this fusion bomb wouldn't have fit in the belly of a B29.

All I keep thinking is,

The old Mr. Spock with the new James T. Kirk.

"A star went supernova and threatened to destroy the Galaxy!"

Edited June 21, 2023 by maw lod qan

[John]

I've no argument that NEO's pose a significant risk however this thread is about supernovae prompted by the current such event in another galaxy. 

By all means start another thread on the NEO threats though 🙂

[Stu]

5 minutes ago, John said:

I've no argument that NEO's pose a significant risk however this thread is about supernovae prompted by the current such event in another galaxy. 

By all means start another thread on the NEO threats though 🙂

I’ve split those comments out into a new thread John.

Back on track 👍

 

[Leo S]

4 minutes ago, John said:

I've no argument that NEO's pose a significant risk however this thread is about supernovae prompted by the current such event in another galaxy. 

By all means start another thread on the NEO threats though 🙂

Sorry John. Did not mean to hijack your thread! I won't reply any more here unless it's on topic.

[John]

1 minute ago, Leo S said:

Sorry John. Did not mean to hijack your thread! I won't reply any more here unless it's on topic.

No problem at all 🙂

Thanks for sorting things out @Stu 👍

NEO's deserve a thread of their own 🙂

[Mr Spock]

Looks like we are safe for now. I'm sure if one goes tomorrow it won't have a significant impact on us, other than providing a spectacle of course.

[DaveS]

When Betelgeuse goes bang (Or rather when we see it go bang) two things can be guaranteed, a) it will happen in summer, and b) we'll be clouded out for months.

[Leo S]

Apparently when our solar system was in it's infancy it survived a nearby supernova thanks to a molecular filament according to recent research.

[Leo S]

This paper was posted on spaceweather.com around a week back. Apparently this research team think Betelgeuse could easily go supernova in our lifetimes.

[John]

5 minutes ago, Leo S said:

This paper was posted on spaceweather.com around a week back. Apparently this research team think Betelgeuse could easily go supernova in our lifetimes.

Someone better let Zaphod know 😬