AR 2978

[astroavani]

AR 2978
Sunspots are small “darkens” on the surface of the sun, which occur when an intense magnetic field decreases both the flow of energy emanating from the sun's interior and the temperature of the region. So sunspots aren't really black or dull spots, just less bright - the regions around them are so bright that, in contrast, the spots end up looking dark.
The fact is that sunspots are directly related to most solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CME), which cause problems in telecommunications satellites, transmission lines and even interruption in power supply, in addition to hitting astronauts with radiation. harmful to health.
The greater the number of sunspots, the greater the number of solar flares and the greater the chance of major problems occurring as a result of this high solar activity. Therefore, sunspots have motivated thousands of investigations since the discovery of the solar cycle, 175 years ago - which is a period of approximately 11 years, where there is always an increase and then a decrease in the number of spots observed on the surface of the sun.
Since then, research emphasis has been on understanding the physics of the formation of these spots, in addition to trying to predict the properties of upcoming solar cycles using statistics or physical methods.
Nowadays, a large number of techniques are able to explain the time frames, the geometric shape and the amplitude of sunspot cycles. However, predicting these characteristics in advance remains an open problem.
A published study, however, proved to be one of the most robust alternatives ever devised. Researcher Scott McIntosh and colleagues used a mathematical method (Hilbert transforms) to delve into the relationship between the sun's magnetic cycle and the amplitude of the sunspot cycle, using 270 years of collected data.
The researchers identified what they called termination events, which could be related to several phenomena - among them, the end of the previous sunspot cycle, the intensification of the current cycle, and the end of magnetic activity cycles. Using these markers, they were able to extract a relationship between the number of events and the solar cycle that allows them to make a prediction with 68% reliability.
From this, the researchers deduced that the next solar cycle (which is starting now) will have a very high magnitude, which will rival the largest ever recorded and could become the most intense in history - a different result from the consensus of the current scientific community. , which predicts a less active cycle similar to the previous one.
The result is vital to understanding how the Sun will behave in the next 11 years - until approximately 2031 - and allowing society to take effective actions to avoid problems in the communications network and in the transmission of energy, as well as ensuring the safety of the next astronauts. .
https://cdn.astrobin.com/images/3740/2022/58a09248-1c79-4b4a-b5b8-a3215e2c111b.png

[bob-c]

A Lovely image Astroavani 👍

 

Bob.

[johnfosteruk]

Stunning image Avani. 

[vineyard]

Lovely false colour image @astroavani.  That's interesting re the McIntosh et al analysis (do you have a link?) - from what I've seen from some curves, it does seem this cycle is picking up faster with more activity than the normal expectation, which could be in line w their analysis.  How extreme do they think it will get (I think there were 2 CMEs yesterday eg?)

[astroavani]

16 hours ago, vineyard said:

Lovely false colour image @astroavani.  That's interesting re the McIntosh et al analysis (do you have a link?) - from what I've seen from some curves, it does seem this cycle is picking up faster with more activity than the normal expectation, which could be in line w their analysis.  How extreme do they think it will get (I think there were 2 CMEs yesterday eg?)

Hello vineyard!
This prediction was actually made last year but apparently seems to be coming true.
I don't have a link, I actually summarized several articles.
Thanks for the comment!

[Pete Presland]

Terrific close ups, very nicely captured.