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Clear Skies Diary S Wales 2014

stevetynant

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stevetynant

stevetynant

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  • Day  334  30th November 2014   Observable nights  2014  123/334   36.83%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____0____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   186/334 __ 55.69%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/334_0.90%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  x  (starting  x November 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ 1  (starting  30 November 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   Not looking great for the time being

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   36.83%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

 

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stevetynant

stevetynant

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  • Day  335  1st December 2014   Observable nights  2014  123/335   36.72%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____0____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   186/335 __ 55.52%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/335_0.90%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  1  (starting  1 December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ x  (starting  x December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   A few chances on the horizon

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   36.72%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

Early evening Wednesday looks the best bet until the weekend with Saturday looking fantastic at the moment apart from the Moon which will be glowing big and bright right the way through the night.

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stevetynant

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  • Day  336  2nd December 2014   Observable nights  2014  124/336   36.9%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____1____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   186/336 __ 55.36%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/336_0.89%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  x  (starting  x December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ 1  (starting  2 December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   A few chances on the horizon

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   36.90%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

Tonight looking good- the forecast for the weekend not so great at the moment but still time to change

 

For the second year running James looking good on his estimate for observing chances

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stevetynant

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  • Day  337  3rd December 2014   Observable nights  2014  125/337   37.09%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____2____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   186/337 __ 55.19%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/337_0.89%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  x  (starting  x December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ 2  (starting  2 December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   Friday looking promising apart from a brief period of showers in the early evening

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   37.09%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

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  • Day  342  8th December 2014   Observable nights  2014  128/342   37.43%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____5____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   187/342 __ 54.68%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/342_0.88%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  x  (starting  x December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ 2  (starting  7 December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   not looking good for the foreseeable now with plenty of rain forecast unfortunately

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   37.09%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

Typical - plenty of clear skies but the moons like a spotlight bleaching the skies

Fingers crossed we get a chance over Christmas

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  • Day  344  10th December 2014   Observable nights  2014  129/344   37.5%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____6____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   188/344 __ 54.65%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/344_0.87%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  x  (starting  x December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ 2  (starting  9 December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   Friday and Saturday looking positive at the moment at least until late evening

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   37.5%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

Looks like a tie between Gaz and James on the observing forecast front at the moment - on a positive note I've bought myself a new weather station for next year so should be able to get better stats lined up for year 3

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  • Day  350  16th December 2014   Observable nights  2014  132/344   37.71%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____9____0%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   192/350 __ 54.86%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 3/350_0.86%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  1  (starting  16 December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ x  (starting  9 December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -2.9_C   11 Jan 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -   Entering a period of rain now but Fridays looking good at the moment

     

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   37.71%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

 

Well Decembers turning out to be a pretty decent month so far - hopefully we'll have a few more nights to come but its already within half a percent of last years total - is that a trend? perhaps a bit early to see but 3 and a half nights in every ten - perhaps take 1 and a half out for the moon not playing ball - (perhaps I'll look at that effect next year) - could be worse considering every other day it rains in Wales apparantly    :0)

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I frequent the weather forums quite a lot Nathan and one thing I've learned on there is that forecasts more than a week down the line can be taken with a pinch of salt so absolutely nothings nailed on as yet and in the last two years we have never gone past 9 days without a chance to observe so I'm pretty confident we'll still get out before the New Year arrives :0)

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stevetynant

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  • Day  365  31st December 2014   Observable nights  2014  137/365   37.53%     ( 2013 __ 140 / 365  38.35%)__________ 

    High Point 2014___39.15%___at 15th September 2014___________________( 2013__43.09% ___3rd Sept 2013)

    Jan 14 Observable nights____6___19.4%  ______(Jan 13___3__ 9.67%)

    Feb 14 Observable nights____7___25% __ _____(Feb 13__14   50.00%)_____   

    Mar 14 Observable nights____15__48.39%______(Mar 13 _11   35.48 %)

    Apr 14 Observable nights____10__33.3%_______(Apr 13__14 _35.00 %)

    May 14 Observable nights____10__32.26%______(May 13 _13 _41.94%)

    Jun 14 Observable nights____14__46.67%______(Jun 13 _12_40.00%)

    Jul 14 Observable nights____ 16__51.61%______(Jul 13__19_61.29%)________Number 1 month for 2013

    Aug 14 Observable nights____12__38.71%_______ (Aug 13_17_54.83%)

    Sep 14 Observable nights____15__50.00%________(Sep 13__9_33.30%)

    Oct 14 Observable nights____9___29.03%________(Oct 13__9_29.03%)

    Nov 14 Observable nights____9__30.00%________(Nov 13_11_36.67%)_

    Dec 14 Observable nights____14_45.16%________(Dec 13__8_25.80%)

    Rain during day   1202/365 __ 55.34%__(2013  182 / 365  49.86%)___ Snow during day 4/365_1.10%  __(2013   30 / 365  8.21%)

    Consecutive Non Observable nights  4  (starting  28 December 2014)____ Record  Consecutive Non Observable Nights   9   (18th to 26th March 2013) 

    Consecutive Observable nights___ x  (starting  9 December 2014)___Record  Consecutive Observable Nights_____12   (11 Jun to 22nd Jun 2014) 

    Group Observing Session planned (inc 21/22nd Nov 14)  12 ____ Group Observing Session Completed  3  25.00%

    (2013    7 / 18 completed_ 39.89% )

    _

    Lowest Temperature recorded during   2014     -5.8_C   28 Dec 2014_ (Source Wunderground - Treharris)_

    ( 2013__- 5.2 C ___24th  Jan  2013 20:00 ) 

    Highest Temperature recorded during  2014 __ 26 C   7th July 2014

    ( 2013___31.2 C ___7th July 2013  08.00 )

    BBC Weather -  Opportunity Tueday evening so not a bad start to January

     

    Personal Observing sessions__ -__4______(2013__15 ) 

     

    Predictions for observable nights 2014   (Currently at   37.53%) _____( 2013 Closest Astro Joe  19% eventual 38.35%)

    Stevetynant  30%, Astro-Joe 34%, Rhys Hardwick 43%, L8-Nite 56%, Garethmob 40%

Close run thing between James and Gaz this year but a new prediction champ in Gaz for 2014 just under 3% out - nice one

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