Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit Jan 30th

[SteveL]

Its only a 1-in-75 chance, but thats quite high.

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-mars21dec21,0,6729483.story?coll=la-home-center

[OSD]

Book me a front seat if this show goes ahead.

[gary1968]

:shock:, I up for a front seat on that show, BTW do ya think my lowly C8N would show this impact of it were to happen?, or is that an impossibility?

Gary A

[jgs001]

Any one know what sort of gear you would need to be able to see this ? I get the impression from some of the posts about not seeing any details of the planet it would have to be pretty impressive.

[Whippy]

:shock:, I up for a front seat on that show, BTW do ya think my lowly C8N would show this impact of it were to happen?, or is that an impossibility?

Gary A

If the seeing conditions are good, it's possible.

Tony..

[cygnusx1]

Fingers crossed!

[barkis]

If this impact does take place, I can see the mission planners for the next scheduled lander, reorganising their itinerary, and if the impact area is a suitable landing site, they might even consider putting the vehicle down in that area. A lot of material from beneath the surface is going to be thrown up after this baby smacks it, and stuff from a lot deeper than the lander would have managed too. At odds of 75 to 1, It is still a long shot, even considering astronomical terms.

Ron.

[leehawkins]

They say it could be seen from earth, but what sort of gear would be needed ?

My 12'' binocular telescope might be ready on time for this, if i pull me finger out! that is.

[Astroman]

If it "dug a crater 1/2 mile wide", as the article says, it'd be difficult to see directly. The cloud of debris after the impact would be considerably bigger and easier to find, if you knew where to look.

Offhand, I'd say a 6" or larger, (much larger), would be sufficient. I'll guarantee one thing, though-pretty much every pro telescope on Earth, and above it, will be lookin' at Mars on January 30th! 8)

[iancandler]

Time to get the other mount set up and start practising imaging mars me thinks..

[Sam]

1:75 chance of hitting Mars, 1:100 chance of clear skies on 30 Jan (nothing scientific about those odds just based on observation of when I have wanted it to be clear).

[barkis]

Apparently the latest calculations indicate the asteroid will miss the planet by about 30,000 miles.

That from Space Ref. this morning.

Ron.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.nl.html?pid=26425

[Jamie]

I would surely love a large asteroid/comet to miss us by 30,000 miles in my lifetime.

What a sight that would make. (what an imaging opportunity).....

[Rob]

Well I have received my usual email report from JPL. here:-

NEWS RELEASE: 2007-152 Dec. 21, 2007

Astronomers Monitor Asteroid to Pass Near Mars

WASHINGTON - Astronomers funded by NASA are monitoring the trajectory of an asteroid estimated to be 50 meters (164 feet) wide that is expected to cross Mars' orbital path early next year. Observations provided by the astronomers and analyzed by NASA's Near-Earth Object Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicate the object may pass within 30,000 miles of Mars at about 6 a.m. EST (3 a.m. PST) on Jan. 30, 2008.

"Right now asteroid 2007 WD5 is about half-way between Earth and Mars and closing the distance at a speed of about 27,900 miles per hour," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Office at JPL. "Over the next five weeks, we hope to gather more information from observatories so we can further refine the asteroid's trajectory."

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," plots the orbits of these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

Asteroid 2007 WD5 was first discovered on Nov. 20, 2007, by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey and put on a "watch list" because its orbit passes near Earth. Further observations from both the NASA-funded Spacewatch at Kitt Peak, Ariz., and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico gave scientists enough data to determine that the asteroid was not a danger to Earth, but could potentially impact Mars. This makes it a member of an interesting class of small objects that are both near Earth objects and "Mars crossers."

Because of current uncertainties about the asteroid's exact orbit, there is a 1-in-75 chance of 2007 WD5 impacting Mars. If this unlikely event were to occur, it would be somewhere within a broad swath across the planet north of where the Opportunity rover is located.

"We estimate such impacts occur on Mars every thousand years or so," said Steve Chesley, a scientist at JPL. "If 2007 WD5 were to thump Mars on Jan. 30, we calculate it would hit at about 30,000 miles per hour and might create a crater more than half-a-mile wide." The Mars Rover Opportunity is exploring a crater approximately this size right now.

Such a collision could release about three megatons of energy. Scientists believe an event of comparable magnitude occurred here on Earth in 1908 in Tunguska, Siberia, but no crater was created. The object was disintegrated by Earth's thicker atmosphere before it hit the ground, although the air blast devastated a large area of unpopulated forest.

NASA and its partners will continue to track asteroid 2007 WD5 and will provide an update in January when further information is available. For more information on the Near Earth Object program, visit: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ .

An audio interview/podcast regarding 2007 WD5 is available at: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/multimedia/podcast/mars-asteroid-20071221/

A videofile related to this story is available on NASA TV and the Web. For information and schedules, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/ntv.

-end-

[Sam]

That's a very interesting post Rob - It would certainly be a sight to see.