Question for those who might know

[Whiporee]

I'm hoping this is okay to post. I've been wondering whether a professional astronomer could stumble upon an object -- a meteor or comet -- 9.3 billion miles out from Earth? How big would an object need to be to be able to be seen at that distance, or would it be possible to be seen at all from something land-based? Could someone plot it's course?

I appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thank you.

[lukebl]

Well, the outer plutoids like Haumea are around 4-6 billion miles away and have been discovered and accurately plotted. I have even captured it with my backyard telescope and Canon DSLR. Others further out will, no doubt, be discovered in future years.

However, if the question is related to some sort of hocus-pocus Mayan apocalypse-type nonsense, then I doubt if you'll find serious answers here!

[Kai]

9.3 billion is pretty specific , you must have something in mind ?

[kniclander]

i don't think the size is the issue - it's the albedo whatnot that would also matter i would think.

[johnrt]

9.3 billion miles is about 100AU. The distance from the sun to earth = 1AU. 100AU gets you outside the Kuiper belt, but there are still loads of bits and pieces floating about in a kind of extended halo. Not sure if any have been accurately mapped or measured though.

Still even 100AU doesn't get you out of the solar system, you're still only about half way to the heliopause (the point at which the sun's influence stops)

And if your question relates to Planet X - well that's already much closer and we're all doomed. Why aren't you running for the hills?

[Charon]

Planet X ?

[johnrt]

Planet X ?

I wouldn't read too much, it's not good for you.

Nibiru cataclysm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[symesie04]

Yes i sometimes contemplate explaining to those believers of the Nibiru theory how ridiculous the theory is. Then i consider their ability to consider rational logic and decide not to bother.

[Doughzer]

Wow, Nibiru theory lass is a right crackpot, in a long line of crackpots!

[symesie04]

Arent they just. Its amazing how many times these "theorists" state a date and then when it doesnt happen just reinvent another set of key dates to and pass it off as a lack of interpretation. Could you imagine if that happened in physics? Something doesnt add up so we just invent something and call it by some alluring name.........dark energy or soemthing! doh!!!!!

[Tinker1947]

Well while its figured out why you want the info, Welcome to SGL.

[Whiporee]

Thanks for the input. I'm a little shy about sharing ideas before they re fleshed out, but that was pretty rude of me.

the premise of the book is that in 1994, a college reporter on her first assignment covered an astomomer's lecture. She returned and filed the story with her editor (the protagonist of the book) and the last paragraph says that in a private interview, the astronomer said that he recently had discovered an previously unknown object that could possibly collide with the Earth in 20 years. (that's where the 9.3 billion comes from. Wiki told me that meteors travel at an average of 30km a second, so that's how my basic math played out 20 years)

The reporter then disappears. The astronomer, now back in DC, is killed in a car crash. As far as the editor can find out, he has nothing in his notes about the discovery, but the records of his last month's worth of viewings were missing.

The book isn't about the science. No one can/will confirm the object. So it's sort of living with the idea that it might happen, and how one goes about a 20 years of wondering. She could have been wrong, he could have just been trying to get in her pants. But when she's missing and he dies, the story sort of catches fire, with total denials from everyone, and the kind of semi-serious rumor that stays in the back of the head.

So, if you're not turned off and willing to help, these are the questions I'd just like some input on:

1) could he have seen it?

2) If he had seen it, and just stumbled upon it, is it necessarily so that other professional astronomers would see it, too? In other words, how much of the sky at that distance has been mapped?

3) if it were happening, at what point would it become common knowledge -- at what point would the astronomy community have to be able to see it, too?

The book is going to stay in the dark, for the most part, and end without really telling one way or the other. But the object will be int he background, and I'd like to get the science as close as I can to being right.

Thanks. Sorry to pop in,a nd I appreciate everyone taking the time to answer me -- Matt

[kniclander]

I would suggest looking into the work of comet hunters and supernova hunters. Quite a lot of that is actually done by amateurs and yes one person alone can spot stuff before everyone else but how long it would stay unknown for, I don't know. usually, as soon as someone thinks they found something new they tell a gazillion other people straight away and then it turns out to be a chinese lantern or soemthing...

[glowjet]

Hi Whiporee and welcome to SGL, professional Astronomers make new discoveries all the time and I think "stumble across" maybe is not quite the right turn of phrase, as specific instruments are engaged in methodical searching and plotting of many areas of space for such bodies. Is the 9.3 Billion miles a significant figure that you have in mind for some sort of novel perhaps ?, we are intrigued to know

John.

[glowjet]

Seems I was in the right field, but with folks Knocking on the door, selling double glazing, and me slow at typing, I was a bit late with my two pennyworth

John.

[661-pete]

I don't see anything wrong with writing a book on this sort of idea - just so long as it stays firmly in the realm of fiction.

Matt, would you like to say a bit about yourself? Have you any other novels to your name? Anything published?

I myself - for my sins - have over the past year written a sort of novel - nothing to do with astronomy. I have no skill at this sort of thing and certainly ain't going to put it in the public domain. My wife is also seriously into creative writing and poetry. She's a lot better at it than I am.

[gingergeek]

Hi there and welcome to SGL

[Bizibilder]

I hope you have the answer to your query, by the way, welcome to SGL.

[Black Knight]

I wouldn't read too much, it's not good for you.

Nibiru cataclysm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just read that wiki. I'd never even heard of Nibiru before. Interesting stuff - from a social and cultural phenomena point of view

[todd8137]

Thanks for the input. I'm a little shy about sharing ideas before they re fleshed out, but that was pretty rude of me.

the premise of the book is that in 1994, a college reporter on her first assignment covered an astomomer's lecture. She returned and filed the story with her editor (the protagonist of the book) and the last paragraph says that in a private interview, the astronomer said that he re

well you could sell millions of books like this theres enough crazies to be leave

this

[symesie04]

I think in regards to discovering a object at such a distance is dependent on its size. However just because the object cannot be observed visually does not mean it cannot be detected by other means given today’s technology. In regards to who would know if discovered by an amateur (unlikely at such a distance for the above reason) then yes i think they would probably shout it from the rooftops. However a professional may take some time to confirm their findings before announcing their find. However they usually work within teams but i guess it could be possible that it was something he/she was working on individually and therefore if they died before the data was confirmed it may go unannounced. In terms of how long it would go unnoticed for is hard to say as technology is advancing at an exponential rate. I believe the current consensus amongst the professional asteroid hunters is that we would have at least a months’ notice of any impending collision with a potential cataclysmic object. If the powers that be decided to announce the impending doom is of course another matter.

[661-pete]

I think the point that the OP is trying to make, is that, from the viewpoint of a work of fiction in the 'conspiracy theory' genre, is it plausible that a professional astronomer might make such a discovery single-handed, and conceal it from his or her colleagues, and then be 'eliminated' in some sort of cover-up? This is how I guess the storyline is developing. I detect shades of The China Syndrome in this!

Assuming that the discovered intruder is a KBO (Kuiper Belt Object - most likely candidate), well most of these objects are extremely faint and beyond the reach of almost all amateurs. Sedna, for example, has a magnitude beyond 20. So with the presumption of a professional cover-up, there would be unlikely to be an amateur astronomer element in the plot until much nearer the apocalypse!

Whether it's plausible that a professional astronomer might be caught up in a conspiracy: well that's for you to work on in the plot!

Hope this helps.

Incidentally, your calculation:

(that's where the 9.3 billion comes from. Wiki told me that meteors travel at an average of 30km a second, so that's how my basic math played out 20 years)

is a bit off-track, I'm afraid. The 30Km/s is merely a typical closing velocity between meteor and Earth at time of impact, that's all. It doesn't say anything about planetary or KBO orbits. Anything in an orbit spends a lot more time out at aphelion, moving very slowly relative to the Sun, than it does at perihelion moving fast. Simple Keplers Laws stuff. I would expect a KBO, starting from a trans-Neptunian position, to take typically hundreds of years to reach Earth orbit,

[Whiporee]

I think in regards to discovering a object at such a distance is dependent on its size. However just because the object cannot be observed visually does not mean it cannot be detected by other means given today’s technology.

The plot line is that the protagonist -- and therefore we -- don't know any of the details. All we know is that the reporter in question wrote "Later, in a private interview (the astronomer) said he had recently discovered an object that had great likelihood of a devastating impact on the Earth in about 20 years."

What's going to happen is that once the reporter is missing, and the astronomer dies, the editor feels like he can't not report the that the last paragraph was written, even without any proof. That launches a bunch of people looking, but, without having any idea as to where the object is or where the astronomer was looking, it's not found, at least not publicly.

So, given that, the question I'm still wondering about is whether at that distance (which, thanks to 661-pete I now know is not as far out as I had thought) would the sky have been sufficiently mapped out that such an object would be unknown if the community did not know where to look for it. I was under the impression that not a lot of the sky has really been mapped out. So if I'm wrong about that, then the whole thing falls apart.

The one of the key elements of this to me is not knowing. So if the facts are that given an intense search, it's not reasonable to assume the object would be unnoticed in 1994 (or even now), then the story doesn't really work. If we all know the object is coming then it has to be dealt with. If it's just a "maybe" then the story can remain about how we react to a major maybe.

So that's the basics of my questions: If it were coming but 20 years out, is it conceivable that in 1994 a) a professional astronomer could see it and no one else would be necessarily be able to find it?

Thanks again. You all rule, and I appreciate it more than you know. -- Matt