Leo S Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Large X-class flare still in progress as I type, though fading. Fingers crossed for more cannibalistic CMEs headed our way. Still no word on if these flares will be geo-effective, but I'm sure there will be something soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ward Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 No CME from the latest X-7.15 that I could see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 2 Author Share Posted October 2 That's a shame. Thanks for posting either way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 2 Author Share Posted October 2 Looks like there is something headed our way after all, but unfortunately (for us in the UK at least) predicted to arrive late morning on 4 October. Of course, it's only a prediction, and they can be off by a bit. I think the weather window will have closed by then anyway Don't know if any other parts of the UK are likely to have some clear sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ward Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 It was a very small CME considering the size of the flare , barely registered on the C3 data , shan't be holding my breath for any fireworks but will be keeping an eye out nevertheless ... 😉 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shimrod Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 12 hours ago, Steve Ward said: It was a very small CME considering the size of the flare , barely registered on the C3 data , shan't be holding my breath for any fireworks but will be keeping an eye out nevertheless ... 😉 Looks promising for tomorrow according to the latest NOAA 3 day forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 3 Author Share Posted October 3 The Sun just unleashed a huge X9.1 category flare. Largest of this solar cycle! Forecast is for the CME (a full halo this time) to arrive on 6 October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 NOAA model updated to include the X-9. Looks like the first CME is late (it should have hit by now), so we can expect it to arrive in the next few hours. Worth starting another thread to get people's attention perhaps? The second looks well timed for the UK tommorrow night according to the prediction, and should be the more potent of the two. Unfortunately it's just looking like cloud here! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highburymark Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Thanks for the heads up Leo S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 44 minutes ago, Highburymark said: Thanks for the heads up Leo S You're welcome. Just to caution, I wouldn't expect too much from these two CMEs. Certainly the first, as Steve pointed out, only looks like a weak halo. The second CME should be a bit better, but probably nothing like we have had recently with auroras visible across the UK, although perhaps there is a slim chance - at least I would not totally rule it out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ward Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 33 minutes ago, Leo S said: You're welcome. Just to caution, I wouldn't expect too much from these two CMEs. Certainly the first, as Steve pointed out, only looks like a weak halo. The second CME should be a bit better, but probably nothing like we have had recently with auroras visible across the UK, although perhaps there is a slim chance - at least I would not totally rule it out! Kp jumped from 1.33 to 2.33 recently , not particularly promising ... 😃 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 8 minutes ago, Steve Ward said: Kp jumped from 1.33 to 2.33 recently , not particularly promising ... 😃 Not great! I wonder could this have been it arriving early, between 01-03 UT here - note the density well into the 10's cm3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paz Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Earlier today I was walking out of a supermarket past the newspaper stands and the Daily Star was reliably informing its readers that there is a "HUMUNGOUS sun burp" on its way. It must be true if the tabloids are saying it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 Looks like it's just hit: https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maw lod qan Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 54 minutes ago, Paz said: Earlier today I was walking out of a supermarket past the newspaper stands and the Daily Star was reliably informing its readers that there is a "HUMUNGOUS sun burp" on its way. It must be true if the tabloids are saying it! I guess space related news is frightening to the average person, so it seems every Facebook site uses it to draw attention. I just wish they were a little more truthful explaining what they are posting, before their advertising gets started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shimrod Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 2 hours ago, Leo S said: Not great! I wonder could this have been it arriving early, between 01-03 UT here - note the density well into the 10's cm3: We had a brief but pretty nice display of the lights in Iceland about 90 minutes ago - lasted maybe 30 minutes in total, with some ebb and flow during that time, before fading completely. Nothing to write home about since then. We only arrived today, and there were a couple on the plane that had only booked a weekend trip in the last day having seen the forecast for the weekend. Possible disappointment, but I'm waiting to see what tomorrow brings. Clear nights until at least Wednesday here thanks to a high over Greenland, and in the meantime I have my Helios 2x binos to admire the night sky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 22 hours ago, Shimrod said: We had a brief but pretty nice display of the lights in Iceland about 90 minutes ago - lasted maybe 30 minutes in total, with some ebb and flow during that time, before fading completely. Nothing to write home about since then. We only arrived today, and there were a couple on the plane that had only booked a weekend trip in the last day having seen the forecast for the weekend. Possible disappointment, but I'm waiting to see what tomorrow brings. Clear nights until at least Wednesday here thanks to a high over Greenland, and in the meantime I have my Helios 2x binos to admire the night sky! Hoping tonight's arriving CME will hit a bit harder. It sounds like you are in the right place at the right time for it. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shimrod Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 14 hours ago, Leo S said: Hoping tonight's arriving CME will hit a bit harder. It sounds like you are in the right place at the right time for it. Good luck! So the last two days have been a bit of a let down - perfect clear skies but not a hint of the solar storm that was forecast. We had a brief early evening display last night, maybe getting up to KP 2 and intermittent, over an hour or so. I left my camera doing a time lapse overnight and there was not even a hint of lights. Previous day (Friday night) my time lapse did at least capture a bit of low level activity throughout the night. Now hoping the kp4/5 forecast for the final definitely clear night tonight is accurate, but checking current to forecast activity during the day I'd say those hopes are going to be dashed! Meantime the little Helios 2x binos have been great for both browsing the sky and bringing some of the landscape a little bit closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 4 hours ago, Shimrod said: So the last two days have been a bit of a let down - perfect clear skies but not a hint of the solar storm that was forecast. We had a brief early evening display last night, maybe getting up to KP 2 and intermittent, over an hour or so. I left my camera doing a time lapse overnight and there was not even a hint of lights. Previous day (Friday night) my time lapse did at least capture a bit of low level activity throughout the night. Now hoping the kp4/5 forecast for the final definitely clear night tonight is accurate, but checking current to forecast activity during the day I'd say those hopes are going to be dashed! Meantime the little Helios 2x binos have been great for both browsing the sky and bringing some of the landscape a little bit closer. Unfortunately the CME is only just hitting now. Still only minor activity. Hopefully it will build as darkness approaches... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ward Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) 4 hours ago, Leo S said: Unfortunately the CME is only just hitting now. Still only minor activity. Hopefully it will build as darkness approaches... Finally seeing a steady rise in the Kp numbers , nothing spectacular by any means but it's the most promising sign for days all things considered. Edited October 6 by Steve Ward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul M Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 There is some moderate activity right now. My allsky camera is currently under thick cloud and heavy rain but, at the time of posting this camera in Iceland has some nice activity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWyWPWKHdlI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 Very Nice. Yeah, I just saw activity had picked up. Still quite modest, but at least there is something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo S Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 (edited) It just ramped up again. Up n down like a yo yo! Edit: Still heading up! Looking quite healthy now. Might hit the red possibly?! Edit2: In the red now! Edit3: Almost 300 nT (00:36 UT) Edited October 7 by Leo S 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul M Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Yes I saw on that Icelandic camera that it was quite a display. My alksky camera remained under the weather all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Ward Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 On the rise again now (17:00) https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ Looks like there might be a trailing edge display but the timing and UK forecasts aren't looking particularly favourable sadly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now