Three Rocks to Watch Out For!

[philsail1]

There appear to be three "Asteroids" that are causing "NASA" (and others) some concern.

Asteroid 1997 XF11 discovered in 1997 is a piece of rock about a mile across. Current observations indicate it that on 26th October 2028 it could pass within about 30,000 miles of Earth (the calculation includes a margin of error of 180,000 miles either way). If it hit the Earth it would do so at an estimated speed of 4.7 miles per second. It would have the destructive power of two million Atomic bombs exploding simultaneously, and would make a crater 20 miles across. The dust thrown up would darken the skies for about a month. NASA says this Asteroid is potentially the most dangerous yet discovered.

The second Asteroid that is causing scientists concern was picked up in July 2002. This is Asteroid 2002 NT7. This rock is expected to reach Earth on 1st February 2019. It is travelling at 28 kilometres per second. If it hit the Earth it could destroy a whole continent and cause global climate change.

The third "danger" Asteroid - and the one NASA are most concerned about - was discovered in June 2005. It has been named "Apophis" (after an ancient Egyptian spirit of evil). This Asteroid is some 390 metres across, and if it hit us, it could cause much local or regional destruction. NASA calculate that "Apophis" will "fly-by" very close to the Earth on 13th April 2029. They say that because it will pass so close, there is a chance that it may pass through a "keyhole" in the Earth's atmosphere, and skip back out on an Earth/Sun orbit, that would inevitably return "Apophis" to collide with Earth in 2036! NASA will be able to update their calculations during the next favourable observation of this Asteroid in 2013.

NASA sceintists (and other experts in the field) are confident that by the time these Asteroids are close enough for their orbits to be determined more precisely, technology will have advanced to enable them deal with an incoming "rock" by perhaps sending a rocket to strike the Asteroid and alter its course by a tiny fraction of a degree - enough to ensure it passes harmlessly by the Earth.

Sobering stuff eh!

Regards,

philsail1

[Tim]

Hmmm, why am I not excited about the dark skies for a month prediction...............

I'd like to see a big rock strike the moon. You reckon the event would be visible from earth? Say the rock that caused Copernicus etc.???

TJ

[algol]

all worrying thoughts but the 2019 one is the most worrying really as it's soonest.

why the hell they ain't spending more money onthis i don't know.

lets sort it out, as long as brucie is still with us we're safe. lol

[cygnusx1]

Sobering reading.

[algol]

On August 1, 2002, the object was removed from the list of objects that present a threat, at least for the next 100 years.

above from wikipedia about the 2019 rock

[timetraveller]

The Earth has been in the firing line from these objects since its birth from the accretion ring from whence it came, unlike the moon the evidence for their impacts in most cases has been virtually wiped away by erosion and by sedimentation because unlike the moon our plannet is geologically active and I'm afraid to say the truth is even with huge advances in technology and throwing almost the entire worlds current funding into the research the chances of us actually being able to prevent an impact is virtually non existent, the Mass and velocity at which these bodies travel would demand an applied force of almost unimaginable power, to be applied to them to deflect them by even a small amount dont forget some of these bodies have masses in excess of mount Everest I think any attempt by us would be summed up by my favourite scifi quote BOWS AND ARROWS AGAINST THE LIGHTNING sorry to be the pessimist guys but its hard to fight against the laws of physics and just to finish on an even lower note any such impact by an object like this on Earth would be totally catastrophic it would almost certainly be an E.L.E

[Sam]

That'll ruin the property market!

[Kai]

That'll ruin the property market!

:laughing3: :laughing3: :laughing3:

[Astro_Baby]

Its a good reason to not worry about personal debt as well - I doubt anyone will be calling from the credit card company after a large impact.

[algol]

Its a good reason to not worry about personal debt as well - I doubt anyone will be calling from the credit card company after a large impact.

no, instead we'll get adverts on tv, "hit by an asteroid? injury lawyers could get you 100% compensation"

[Paxo]

Its a good reason to not worry about personal debt as well - I doubt anyone will be calling from the credit card company after a large impact.

My creditcard company called me following my last 'large impact'.

Steve..

[Sam]

Its a good reason to not worry about personal debt as well - I doubt anyone will be calling from the credit card company after a large impact.

My creditcard company called me following my last 'large impact'.

Steve..

astronomy related?

[cygnusx1]

astronomy related?

:laughing3: :hello1:

[Paxo]

Its a good reason to not worry about personal debt as well - I doubt anyone will be calling from the credit card company after a large impact.

My creditcard company called me following my last 'large impact'.

Steve..

astronomy related?

Oh yes, WO FLT110. Back to the thread though, it is a 'worry' whether or not technology will advance enough to cope with such dangers. At least with the three quoted in this thread, there is a chance to monitor over a relatively long period to ascertain the full danger levels, it's the ones that 'come out of nowhere' that we need to have most concern about.

Steve..

[Sam]

It is quite worrying. It really is something that requires a global effort.

[Paxo]

It is quite worrying. It really is something that requires a global effort.

here here, but most sad of all, that's probably where the problems will start!

Steve..

[Sam]

It is quite worrying. It really is something that requires a global effort.

here here, but most sad of all, that's probably where the problems will start!

Steve..

bingo!

[cygnusx1]

When your times up, its up....

[The Warthog]

They are much too far out to make any prediction other than they will be close. Multiple influences can affect their orbits, and send them closer, or farther away. Earth is a small target in a huge space.

Anyway, I don't expect to live to see the later two. Once I'm dead, you're on your own.

[thing]

They are much too far out to make any prediction other than they will be close. Multiple influences can affect their orbits, and send them closer, or farther away. Earth is a small target in a huge space.

Anyway, I don't expect to live to see the later two. Once I'm dead, you're on your own.

:laughing3: :laughing3: Doubt whether I'll be around for the last too either. We'll gloat together from a heavenly vantage point........

[gurney]

I know for sure that if one of these puppies did hit, I would MUCH rather be underneath it's impact point, than on the other side of the earth. After all - can you imagine how narked off you'd be as an astronomer being in the wrong place to observe it happening, but living with the nightmarish consequences anyway!?

I'd much rather spend my last few moments sat on the pavement watching it grow larger and larger in the sky right above your head.

[Astro_Baby]

Well no ones going to be worried about a deep impact or even an extinction level event because you cant tax it

You can go here http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/orbits/ and get full orbital data including some positively SCARY orbital animations. Check out the orbital data for VK184 here http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007+VK184;orb=1 Check out its near on impact predicted for June 2048 - its quite a hair raising thing to watch :shock:

[Jeff RV]

I know for sure that if one of these puppies did hit, I would MUCH rather be underneath it's impact point, than on the other side of the earth. After all - can you imagine how narked off you'd be as an astronomer being in the wrong place to observe it happening, but living with the nightmarish consequences anyway!?

I'd much rather spend my last few moments sat on the pavement watching it grow larger and larger in the sky right above your head.

I'd ave a couple of pints as well whilst standing there!!

[Sam]

I know for sure that if one of these puppies did hit, I would MUCH rather be underneath it's impact point, than on the other side of the earth. After all - can you imagine how narked off you'd be as an astronomer being in the wrong place to observe it happening, but living with the nightmarish consequences anyway!?

I'd much rather spend my last few moments sat on the pavement watching it grow larger and larger in the sky right above your head.

I'd ave a couple of pints as well whilst standing there!!

Nah that wouldn't work - it'd wash out the sky and make observing DSO's really difficult and the impact would really mess up your polar alignment - and imagine how long it would take to cool the OTA down after all the heat generated by the impact! and of course then there's the gunk that would be in the atmosphere afterwards - the seeing would be rubbish for ages.....

[Vega]

We've put landers on Mars, landed on Asteroids and moons of the gas giants.... im sure we can nudge or drag an asteroid, no sweat.

Failing that, as mentioned above, send in Bruce and the boys with a few Nukes .

Matt