Betelgeuse can become a black hole

[Damien1975]

So they are now predicting that Betelgeuse will become a black hole, if this is the case it changes the whole outcome and can possibly have dangerous impacts to planet earth seems to be the new possible consensus, anyone else here anything about this possibility 

 

the date of feb 21 is coming up a lot now.

 

this will make it the closest black hole to earth 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Damien1975
Updates

[saac]

lol  

[Damien1975]

What’s so funny , I am being serious here?

[Islander]

Seriously, Betelgeuse is too distant to affect us whatever happens to it.

It's more likely that it'll brighten again and return to business as usual than become a supernova.

[saac]

So am I Damien.  I don't know who "they" are but man if they can predict a black hole forming on 21 Feb then  get them working on tonight's lottery number toot sweet and have them email it to me  

 

Jim 

Edited February 8, 2020 by saac

[Damien1975]

It is only 600 to 800 lights years away isn’t that daily close if it becomes a black hole. The closest to earth is like 3000 light years, so this would become the closest to us 

mans i read we will know by February 21

Edited February 8, 2020 by Damien1975

[saac]

8 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

It is only 600 to 800 lights years away isn’t that daily close if it becomes a black hole. The closest to earth is like 3000 light years, so this would become the closest to us 

And its gravitation affect on Earth should it turn into a black hole will be exactly the same as it is now - in other words totally unaffected. I'll still pack my umbrella though , just in case

Jim 

Edited February 8, 2020 by saac

[vlaiv]

4 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

It is only 600 to 800 lights years away isn’t that daily close if it becomes a black hole. The closest to earth is like 3000 light years, so this would become the closest to us 

mans i read we will know by February 21

Black hole that close will change nothing. If the closest star to us became a black hole - we could only tell that it went dark and nothing more.

Only real danger might come from gamma ray burst - if those are indeed produced by supernovas, and if it is directed towards us (not sure but I suspect GRBs emanate from poles of rotation of collapsing star - might be wrong at this).

Edited February 8, 2020 by vlaiv
typo ...

[Damien1975]

Yes but don’t black holes suck matter in around them and grow? 
 

basically concenus is with the drastic dimming and the fact it has never been dimmer and still going that whatever happens will happen very very soon. They think supernova but can keep dimming and become a black hole. 
 

now from what I have read on different boards is that the distance on if it would become a black hole would be to close for comfort.   
 

As I mentioned the day of February 21 will tell us which way it is going to go.

 

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2...urve_strip.png
The most recent measurements put the magnitude of Betelgeuse at about +1.66, the dimmest its been in our 25 years of photometery," says Edward Guinan of Villanova University.
Answers might be forthcoming on Feb. 21st. Astronomers have long known that Betelgeuse is a variable star.
If Betelegeuse starts to bounce back on Feb. 21st, this whole episode might just be a deeper-than-average pulsation, and perhaps the supernova watch can be called off. However, notes Guinan, "even if the 430-day period is still working, this would indicate a minimum brightness near 0.9 mag--much brighter than the current value near 1.6 mag. So something very unusual is going on."

Stay tuned for updates as Feb. 21st approaches

[Stu]

2 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

Stay tuned for updates as Feb. 21st approaches

What relevance does 21st Feb have?

[saac]

and tonight's lottery number are ?

 

JIm 

[Islander]

10 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

It is only 600 to 800 lights years away isn’t that daily close if it becomes a black hole. The closest to earth is like 3000 light years, so this would become the closest to us 

mans i read we will know by February 21

Two things, the net gravitational effect on Earth will be zero, and nobody can predict the exact date of a supernova occurring.

[Geoff Barnes]

It's all here @Stu… https://www.spaceweather.com/

[vlaiv]

2 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

Yes but don’t black holes suck matter in around them and grow? 

This is common misconception about black holes, that somehow same amount of matter (or even less) that was in star that produced black hole now suddenly starts attracting things more for some reason. It just does not happen.

Things that fall into black hole and get sucked into it - would definitively also fall into original star - difference being that star radius is many orders of magnitude larger than event horizon and you simply cannot come close enough to star center without colliding with the star first.

Once star is collapsed and all matter that was once star - gets into very small radius and has very large density - then funny stuff starts happening when you are close enough - but for things that are far enough - they just continue the same as before - when all that matter was still a star.

[vlaiv]

6 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

Yes but don’t black holes suck matter in around them and grow? 

In fact - look at this recent discussion:

 

[saac]

2 minutes ago, Islander said:

Two things, the net gravitational effect on Earth will be zero, and nobody can predict the exact date of a supernova occurring.

I bet if it did happen though it would be cloudy knowing our luck  

Jim 

[vlaiv]

1 minute ago, saac said:

I bet if it did happen though it would be cloudy knowing our luck  

Jim 

But maybe it would still shine thru the clouds?

[Islander]

Now that would be a sight to behold

 

[saac]

1 minute ago, vlaiv said:

But maybe it would still shine thru the clouds?

Ah nature's neutral density filter , I like it.

Jim 

[Damien1975]

I am really confused with all this to be honest. 

what I have been reading is 

if it starts illuminating again then is will become a supernova and it’s at a safe distance 

if it continues dimming it will explode into a black hole.  Which at the distance is dangerous 
 

So far with all the dimming it looks like it’s in the process of becoming a black hole. Both scenarios are very very close to happening

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Damien1975

[Islander]

4 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

I am really confused with all this to be honest. 
 

if it starts illuminating again then is will become a supernova and it’s at a safe distance 

if it continues dimming it will explode into a black hole.  Which at the distance is dangerous 
 

So far with all the dimming it looks like it’s in the process of becoming a black hole. Both scenarios are very very close to happening

 

It does sound like you're confused.

If it returns to normal brightness then it'll carry on as normal, no supernova just a red supergiant star.

If it continues dimming, then something new is happening but the likelihood is that the effect will be down to expulsion of material which partially obscures the star and eventually it'll brighten again.

If it were to become a supernova, then it wouldn't affect us apart from being visible in daytime and eventually changing the shape of Orion forever.  To become a black hole it has to undergo catastrophic gravitational collapse and that would produce a supernova.  It's still not  dangerous to Earth though.

[Damien1975]

And all these possibilities are happening now in our lifetimes?

also it is possibly as close as 400 light years 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Damien1975

[Damien1975]

6 minutes ago, Islander said:

It does sound like you're confused.

If it returns to normal brightness then it'll carry on as normal, no supernova just a red supergiant star.

If it continues dimming, then something new is happening but the likelihood is that the effect will be down to expulsion of material which partially obscures the star and eventually it'll brighten again.

If it were to become a supernova, then it wouldn't affect us apart from being visible in daytime and eventually changing the shape of Orion forever.  To become a black hole it has to undergo catastrophic gravitational collapse and that would produce a supernova.  It's still not  dangerous to Earth though.

If it continues dimming, then something new is happening but the likelihood is that the effect will be down to expulsion of material which partially obscures the star and eventually it'll brighten again.
 

Or it will continues dim until it’s gone  so this could collapse upon itself

Edited February 8, 2020 by Damien1975

[Islander]

Everything has to happen some time, and not all of the possibilities are happening.  The scientific consensus seems to be that the dimming isn't that unusual unless it persists.  Even if it does persist it's more likely that it'll return at some point.  A supernova is unlikely, but in the event it happens in our lifetime, it's not a threat.  It's also more likely to produce a neutron star than a black hole but again, neither are dangerous to Earth.

[Damien1975]

4 minutes ago, Islander said:

Everything has to happen some time, and not all of the possibilities are happening.  The scientific consensus seems to be that the dimming isn't that unusual unless it persists.  Even if it does persist it's more likely that it'll return at some point.  A supernova is unlikely, but in the event it happens in our lifetime, it's not a threat.  It's also more likely to produce a neutron star than a black hole but again, neither are dangerous to Earth.

But if it continues to dim until it in gone who knows what will happen and affect us? And if it continues dimming the way it is then it will happen soon?

i am reading all this stuff online and on other forums. 
 

why is that not being mentioned here?

Edited February 8, 2020 by Damien1975