KP index is forecasted to be high

[Lunar93]

KP index is forecasted to Reach 5 tonight meaning there is a chance of a storm , that's what spaceweather.com is saying , KP 5 means that anyone at 56.3 degrees north or higher will be able to see the storm , that's most of scotland :hello1:

If it increases to a 6 then folks at 54.2 degrees north or higher will see the storm , up here were i saty we've got a chance of a clear slot around midnight 8)

[Kaptain Klevtsov]

What? Where? When? I'm easily baffled as you all know.

Kaptain Klevtsov

[Lunar93]

i'm not 100% certain when but the NOAA is forecasting a high of 5 in the next 24 hours , and the aurora is best viewed at local midnight , just keep an eye on the forecast today and get out there tonight

[Lunar93]

Forecast still at 5 with the current KP index at 3

The Latest Polar pass was by the NOAA 18 satellite and 1124 GMT and here's an image of the current position of the auroral circle :-

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

[Talitha]

There's a bit more to it than just a good Kp prediction, though. Along with an adequate Kp level for your adjusted geomagnetic latitude, the Bz has to be far enough south or you won't see anything.

On the flip-side, if the Bz is far enough south, you still stand a chance to see a mild display even if the Kp is a notch or two below what's optimal for your location. My Kp threshold is supposed to be about 4.5, but I've seen low, diffuse domes when it was a 2... the Bz was pulled south though, and that's what made the difference.

Spaceweather is just like our weather. They can try to predicet what will happen by looking at the information they have, but weather generally does whatever it pleases. I once watched six separate Auroral sub-storms erupt and fade during the course of a night, and there weren't even any Aurora warnings out.

The Aurora's not always best at midnight, either... it depends on timing. One of the most beautiful (and colorful!) displays I ever saw was in full force at sunset and faded by midnight.

In layman's terms: when Sol gives off a good belch it takes time to reach us, and the part of the globe which is experiencing noontime actually gets the full impact. But the force of the impact 'pushes' things down onto the opposite side of the globe (where it's midnight), and produces Aurorae IF the conditions are right.

When I saw that colorful display at sunset, my area of the Earth was just beginning to rotate into darkness. The display had been raging all day long but I just couldn't see it till it got dark. My Aurora-friends in Germany had a good show, though!

[Lunar93]

thanks for that Talitha , here's the latest image from the NOAA , taken by the NOAA - 18 satellite :-

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html

It's currently at 3 and the forecast still at 5

[Casus belli]

I have brilliant views of the Moray Firth. Just had a look just now and saw....

[supernova]

There's a bit more to it than just a good Kp prediction, though. Along with an adequate Kp level for your adjusted geomagnetic latitude, the Bz has to be far enough south or you won't see anything.

On the flip-side, if the Bz is far enough south, you still stand a chance to see a mild display even if the Kp is a notch or two below what's optimal for your location. My Kp threshold is supposed to be about 4.5, but I've seen low, diffuse domes when it was a 2... the Bz was pulled south though, and that's what made the difference.

Spaceweather is just like our weather. They can try to predicet what will happen by looking at the information they have, but weather generally does whatever it pleases. I once watched six separate Auroral sub-storms erupt and fade during the course of a night, and there weren't even any Aurora warnings out.

The Aurora's not always best at midnight, either... it depends on timing. One of the most beautiful (and colorful!) displays I ever saw was in full force at sunset and faded by midnight.

In layman's terms: when Sol gives off a good belch it takes time to reach us, and the part of the globe which is experiencing noontime actually gets the full impact. But the force of the impact 'pushes' things down onto the opposite side of the globe (where it's midnight), and produces Aurorae IF the conditions are right.

When I saw that colorful display at sunset, my area of the Earth was just beginning to rotate into darkness. The display had been raging all day long but I just couldn't see it till it got dark. My Aurora-friends in Germany had a good show, though!

My you are very intelegent Carol.

[Talitha]

My you are very intelegent Carol.

Thanks Bernie, but trust me.. my knowledge of this subject is absolutely nothing compared to many of my Aurora friends.

[Lunar93]

The NOAA are forecasting a 50% chance that middle latitudes will have an active geomagnetic storm in the next 0 - 24 hours.

Find out the latest on http://spaceweather.com/

[Vega]

uuum, I've been reduced to a gormless mess... kp rates? storms?

I presuem were talkin about Northern Lights here? :scratch: ... just a stab in the dark...

Us down 'ere at lat 51 don't see it often

Matt

[iantobach]

I thought KP index was a brand of nuts?

[Xunil]

I thought KP index was a brand of nuts?

It's more of a directory

[Talitha]

Actually, it's a prediction graph.

[barkis]

I think the BAA have an Aurora section, and some members can supply predictions of Auroral events. They are armed with Fluxgate Magnetometers, which show disturbances in the earths magnetic field recorded on a graph.

Mind you, if a neighbour is out with a lawnmower, it might trigger a false alarm in any one area. It depends where his detector is placed outside.

Ron.

[saturn5]

You can get aurora email alerts at spaceweather.com or more correctly put ,you get the latest solar reports which indicate whether or not it is favourable for aurora or not.

Being at almost 59N which is only about 150 miles south of Helsinki,auroras are common but have been scarce of late being solar minimum and all that jazz.

Wouldn't have thought your friends in Germany would get a lot of displays Carol.

[Talitha]

Mind you, if a neighbour is out with a lawnmower, it might trigger a false alarm in any one area. It depends where his detector is placed outside.

That's exactly what happened to my friend Ulrich in Germany. Every time someone would go in or out of the parking area below the apartment house, he'd get a false alarm.

Wouldn't have thought your friends in Germany would get a lot of displays Carol.

No, they usually don't but this impact was a 'biggie'. They were absolutely thrilled to have been on the night side of the globe when it hit.