A Chrallenge for you...

[LukeSkywatcher]

Working on the law of averages, the answer is 40%.

[studdedsole]

Suppose there is a actual question to answer at all (there is none actually formulated), with A and D being the same, there are in fact three possible answers, so the odds should be 33.33%, never mind what is the actual answer. But is there a question at all? That is a confusing one

There are four possible answers A, B, C and D:icon_confused:

[LukeSkywatcher]

There are four possible answers A, B, C and D:icon_confused:

Yep, so "what is the chance you will be right?"

1 in 4

Makes sense NOW. i think.

[studdedsole]

Yep, so "what is the chance you will be right?"

1 in 4

Makes sense NOW. i think.

The paradox is that 1 in 4 = 25%, but 25% could be answer A or D.

But there is a 50% chance of selecting the correct 25% so the answer is 50%?

But there is a 1 in 4 chance of the answer being 50%, selection B, so the answer is 25% of the possible answers....but 25% is answer A or D and there is a 50% chance......and so it goes and now I have another headache..........break out the beta blockers:icon_scratch:

[sbooder]

You pick at random but the answer to the question is already known from research. So there is a correct answer but you may not get it which is why it is a percentage.

[LukeSkywatcher]

The paradox is that 1 in 4 = 25%, but 25% could be answer A or D.

But there is a 50% chance of selecting the correct 25% so the answer is 50%?

But there is a 1 in 4 chance of the answer being 50%, selection B, so the answer is 25% of the possible answers....but 25% is answer A or D and there is a 50% chance......and so it goes and now I have another headache..........break out the beta blockers:icon_scratch:

I guess the answer is different depending on what system you use to get to your answer:

% = 33.333333

averages = 40%

odds = 25%

sods law = 0

Now where did i put my Anadin and vodka

[Double Kick Drum]

Based on the fact that I don't think anyone else has picked it and given it is the highest probability, thus suggesting I am better at picking stuff than everybody else....

I pick C.

I therefore have scored the highest mark by ten whole percentage points!

Well done me!

QED

[pastiche]

the answer lies in Bertrand Russel's "theory of types" - it's a form of "category error" caused by self-reference .

ps - Wow, i only waited 21 years for my philosophy degree to come in useful!

This must be the same theory that is built into the part of my wifes' brain that controls logical debate.

[jamespels]

This must be the same theory that is built into the part of my wifes' brain that controls logical debate.

Nah, if it's anything like my wife's, it's a simple "yes = no unless I say otherwise" statement