Is there a reason for so much cloud?

[Donkeiller]

@iwatkins.

Sorry I didn't mean to be deliberately rude.

However the Met office haven't exactly covered themselves with glory recently.

In fact they have become a World-wide figure of fun.

See what is going on here:

Met Office April Forecast: “…drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.” | Watts Up With That?

[JamesF]

As far as I can see, the only likely error in that forecast at the moment is that April was favoured to be the driest month of April/May/June. There's still the opportunity for the rest of it to be accurate and in fact, unless we get a prolonged period of persistent drizzle I think it's almost certain that the comments regarding drought will be correct as it's quite likely the rainfall over the last couple of weeks will not have significantly replenished the ground water supplies that much of the population rely upon.

Deliberate misinterpretation of the facts is fundamental to humour, but such misinterpretations shouldn't then be considered fact themselves.

James

[acey]

As far as I can see, the only likely error in that forecast at the moment is that April was favoured to be the driest month of April/May/June.

For all we know it could still turn out to be an accurate prediction.

[JamesF]

It could, but I think the rest of the forecast might start to look like Michael Fish's worst nightmare if it did

James

[Naemeth]

Now I think of it, it's nearing my birthday and I'm getting the Skywatcher Heritage 130P for it, that must be it!

Honestly, it's cloudy for the whole week , yesterday it said tonight might be good, but now it's going to be cloudy...

[Uranium235]

Chin up ey?

If you take a look at sat24 you will notice a big clear patch rising from the south, it might be clear by about 8.30pm

[Uranium235]

spoke too soon just switched to IR and theres another joblot coming from northern France, hopefully it will shift northwards on its way over (apologies to anyone living north of the Midlands!).

[iwatkins]

@iwatkins.

In fact they have become a World-wide figure of fun.

See what is going on here:

Met Office April Forecast: “…drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.” | Watts Up With That?

Well, you are of course entitled to your opinion.

But you failed to answer the question of how to forecast the weather other than using computer based NWP. Nor have you acknowledged the fact you statement about taxpayers money being used is wrong.

You are obviously one of those people who shout about global warming. I'm not interested in which camp you are in. But as such discussions are always based on politics and point scoring rather than serious discussions, I'll no longer consider anything you have to say as being serious, well thought through or even researched.

[chownsie]

EEEEEEEEKKKKK! No cloud right now.....? Very clear, moon and sun both up. WILL IT LAST?!

Scope cooling none the less

[Donkeiller]

Well, you are of course entitled to your opinion.

But you failed to answer the question of how to forecast the weather other than using computer based NWP. Nor have you acknowledged the fact you statement about taxpayers money being used is wrong.

You are obviously one of those people who shout about global warming. I'm not interested in which camp you are in. But as such discussions are always based on politics and point scoring rather than serious discussions, I'll no longer consider anything you have to say as being serious, well thought through or even researched.

"I'll no longer consider anything you have to say as being serious, well thought through or even researched."

Now that is an interesting mind-set.

Is it typical of those who work in the Met Office?

[David JM]

The Met Office will provide forecasts that have a degredation in accuracy over time. The most accurate weather forecast, with a reliability of over 90% is "tomorrow will be the same as today".

The reason the Met office get it wrong is that they are all Librans, and we know what that means!

[that was a joke, you may now laugh]

[pete_l]

The Met Office will provide forecasts that have a degredation in accuracy over time. The most accurate weather forecast, with a reliability of over 90% is "tomorrow will be the same as today".

Over a year from March 2010 to 2011 the weather where I live was the same as the previous day on exactly 100 occasions - 27.4% of the time. The most frequent weather type was "sunny intervals" which occurred 124 times (181 if you add the "sunny" days).

In contrast the forecast was "correct" for the next day 177 times (48.5%)

[Donkeiller]

Over a year from March 2010 to 2011 the weather where I live was the same as the previous day on exactly 100 occasions - 27.4% of the time. The most frequent weather type was "sunny intervals" which occurred 124 times (181 if you add the "sunny" days).

In contrast the forecast was "correct" for the next day 177 times (48.5%)

Basically 50/50. You might as well toss a coin.

[onesmallstep]

Hi

I've read that our current weather is due to the jet stream moving out of its usual position and forcing cloud over northern Europe including the UK.

[pete_l]

Basically 50/50. You might as well toss a coin.

Well not really. There are over a dozen different sorts of weather that the forecast gives: sunny intervals, white cloud, light showers, etc.

The trick is to guess the right one fifty percent of the time