Planetary Collision Theories- Help would be appreciated

[JMonty]

Okay, so this is the only place I can logically ask this question (this, and a handful of other forums, however, I found this first).

I am doing a bit of research for a paper, and I need a PLAUSIBLE way for the planets to shift orbit (either all planets moving closer to the sun, with the closest getting disintegrated, or all of the planets moving outward an orbit with whatever possibility happening to the last planet). I want to know the cause, effect, and outcome of your theories. Even if they don't *stay* in the orbit they end up in, I need them to, or at least the Earth to *move* out of orbit and become uninhabitable to humankind, and the animal kingdom at large.

Any way you put it, I want Earth uninhabitable- so make it too cold, make it too hot, make it have too much of certain gases, send it rocketing through space as asteroids from being bombarded like an 8-ball. I don't care so long as it is plausible with your current astrophysics knowledge.

If you can, I'd like proof to back up your theories- anything you garnered the use of to come to your conclusions to make a logical, plausible point.

Also, please note that this paper is not to be published in a magazine or anything, and is not for a grade. It is just something I need to debunk a friend.

Monty

[Ad Astra]

Hi Monty,

As I understand it, you are trying to prove that: 1) a habitable inner solar system is not required in any way, and 2) that there are mechanisms by which we can question the long-term stability of solar system orbits.

Let's take this a bit at a time. The best solar system formation model is based upon the ideas of LaPlace, a French scientist from the late 1700's, who said that stars form from collapsing clouds of gas. We have now expanded that into something called accretion theory, which says that gas and dust are spun into a disk which allows particles to stick together - eventually forming planets. But the process is violent and messy; essentially cosmic demolition derby with planets crashing into each other to make larger bodies. Sometimes the collision is violent enough to blast huge amounts of material into orbit - where it can coalesce into a moon; Earth's moon Luna is an example of this, as it seems is Pluto's Charon. We see evidence of such mega-collisions in such things as: 1) Venus' retrograde spin, 2) Near-Side-Megabasin on Luna (Byrnes, et al, 2007), 3) Martian N. Hemisphere megabasin, 4) Uranus' 98-degree axial tilt, and many more. Further, the best modern theory involves Jupiter migrating inward under the influence of orbital resonance with Saturn. They use this to explain the precise sorting of the asteroid belt, and the presence of water throughout the inner solar system, even Mercury's huge imbalance between the size of its huge core and its thin crust.

The same long term studies of solar system harmonics and stability indicate that there are a variety of mechanisms for disrupting stability in our own system. Studies indicate that the most unstable planet in our system is Venus. Venus is often the planet that spins out of its orbit chaotically when anything is altered in the system's initial setup - usually with disastrous "when worlds collide" sort of consequences.

Still other studies indicate that the long-term existence of life on Earth, even after several (many?) mass extinctions, indicates that there may be stabilizing influences keeping orbits in balance much as the influence of the Moon keeps Earth's axis pointed steadily toward the same target over many millennia. It's all very theoretical - more like computer models, really. So I'm not sure you are going to win your argument.

Hope that helps,

Dan

[JMonty]

Hey Dan,

Thanks for the information, and I'll be looking into that. Basically what I'm trying to get into is, and I know this sounds absurd, but a... Okay, I'll start from the beginning, because I have no idea how to explain this without making myself look idiotic.

Oh well, I'm going to look idiotic anyway. Might as well do it right.

I'm a Science Fiction author, and I am looking to pick your brains for my next book, which my friend has said is impossible to write because I cannot create a cataclysmic ELE big enough to destroy the planet without having aliens destroy the earth which has been done to death. I know I said it wouldn't be published, but your words will not. I just need an idea that I can run with that is plausible enough to not get my book laughed at, and not totally **** off Science/Astronomy/Astrophysics buffs.

While there will be "Aliens" in my book, they aren't hostile, but the ancestors who populated Earth. So there will be no lasers pointed at earth ready to do what StarWars' Death Star could do. So, it has to be natural. It has to be plausible. It can be so far in the future that its nearly inconceivable. I don't care so long as it is plausible. "It probably never will happen ever, but if *this* happened... it possibly could..." is good enough for what I need. I can make that happen, whatever it is, so long as I know that's what is needed for it to happen.

My friend is not going to poison my thoughts enough to keep me from writing this story. I'm not going to let him, so I need your help to win against his doom and gloom.

[twotter]

So you're writing a paper....no, you're not, you're proving a point to your friend....no, you're not, you're writing a book....and you want plausible ideas for your book, which no doubt you'll make money on, and we don't get a mention???

Right

PS. Welcome to SGL - enjoy your stay!

[JMonty]

Well, I did tell you I was going to be idiotic. Least I told you the truth.

And, I never said I wouldn't mention you. No need for nastiness, now. We're adults, or I would hope so.

[MorningMajor]

Depends on how far in the future you want to set the book - 3 to 5 million years? in that case the andromeda galaxy is due to crash into our milky way - I'm sure with a bit of artistic licence you can speed the time frame up a bit!

I'll let you know where to send the royalties! lol

[twotter]

I wouldn't say idiotic, more that you weren't really honest. You told the truth in your second post. The nice, honest, way to start would have been something like this...

"Planetary Collision Theories - I need them......because I'm a science fiction author and I'm looking for plausible ideas for book I'm intending to write. Could anyone help please?"

As for ideas, I've just had a very quick look on Google and there are a number of different theories which you may find useful for your story. Personally, I like the idea of a change in the Earth's precession, exacerbated by climate change, leading to a change in solar insolation. Current temperate areas succumb to desertification, with catastrophic consequences for food production, living space etc... leading to WWIII and eventual nuclear annihilation. Any survivors you can mop up using rising sea levels in a good old fashioned flood (though this has, quite famously in the Christian world, been done before).

Drop me a private message if you want to use any of my ideas and we can make sure you spell my name correctly / negotiate my fee

Best of luck.

[inksmithy]

Another option would be to have one of the big asteroid belt objects be jolted out of its orbit by Jupiter gradual gravitational influence and swings in to smash into the moon, with catastrophic effects on its orbit.

You do the rest of the science, it isn't too hard.

Alan

[John]

I'm thinking of writing a "research paper" as well so I'll be following this thread with interest

[rowan46]

I'm glad you came clean I read the first post and it looked fishy. I thought you were some sort of L Ron hubbard type looking for pseudo science to start up a religion. Hmm sci fi writer that rings a bell . To get back on track some sort of solar event? and welcome to SGl

[TheThing]

Perhaps the title is a little off putting too - 'I need them'!

How about 'Can you help me please?' or 'I would like if possible'?

Manners cost nothing...

[JMonty]

Morning Major: I will be taking a close look at that link here in a few minutes, and I'll tell you what I think on that. It sounds quite interesting. I don't know about that far into the future, but I can work something out.

twotter: While I like your ideas, I need the earth -gone-. Smashed, catapulted away, I don't care, as long as its gone. And I am sorry for not being honest in my first post, but your initial reaction after my second post is precisely the reason for the subterfuge in the first post. Not many people seem to be willing to help writers (Who may never get the book their working on published due to the current trends of the writing market) get a book written with plausibility in tact.

Alan: "Another option would be to have one of the big asteroid belt objects be jolted out of its orbit by Jupiter gradual gravitational influence and swings in to smash into the moon, with catastrophic effects on its orbit."

This is quite frankly, exactly what I might be looking for. I'll check the forums here to see if there's anymore written about it here before I do other research into that. I have a vivid imagination, so I can work with that all day, I just need to make it fit into a nice little box that won't get me angry people shaking their fists at my book.

Rowan: A solar event... has been thought of. I've been rolling that around in my head for a few weeks now. I just have to do more research on the sun and what a large enough impact would do to it, and what that impact (if I can make it plausibly happen) would do to the rest of the solar system as a unit.

TheThing: I will change the header. I don't mind.

Thank you all for your great ideas, and by all means, if you have others, I'd like to hear them. And, again, I am sorry for not being up front in my first post. It won't happen again.

Monty

[Ad Astra]

PM sent, Monty...

One Sci-Fi author to another!

Dan

[inksmithy]

Dan Brown had angry people shouting and waving their fists at his books for years and I'm not too sure I've heard him complaining about it.

Alan

[MorningMajor]

Monty

Personally I think you've been quite harshly treated - I read between the lines of your initial post and instantly thought you were looking for book ideas, and why not - who cares why you need the info - if it was for starting a cult - fine, couldn't give a monkeys - wouldn't join, mind you!

Anyway, good luck - will SGL members get a discounted signed copy!???

[jamespels]

Two other obvious ones - big comet strike (may not destroy Earth as such but an impact like Jupiter had a year or so ago would do a jerk of a lot of damage) and sun going nova (depending on your time frame). I know neither of these are particularly innovative but NOT having Bruce Willis save the day at the eleventh hour would be a new twist...

Less obvious ones - earth's core's soon changes or becomes chaotic, wiping out the magnetic field, leaving us open to solar and cosmic radiation, etc.; moons orbit slows down enough that earths spin destabilises and the planet becomes uninhabitable (both of this is pretty much inevitable, btw).

[Ad Astra]

Anyway, good luck - will SGL members get a discounted signed copy!???

MorningMajor,

As a SGL author in good standing, let me say that I'm always happy to arrange for signed copies of my books!

If you want something like that, you usually have to PM the author to arrange to purchase directly from them. Publishers (silly wonks!) have something against holding a few dozen signed ones for those clever, insightful, and tasteful folks who actually want a signed copy. My stuff is all on Amazon, and they don't offer a special service for signed copies, either (I asked!)

My new book (Maurice on the Far Side) is in with the editors now - it's actually the third in the series. And yes, I'll be happy to arrange as many signed ones as are needed for shipment to my SGL pals once it is out, probably sometime late this year.

I know I'm maybe taking your 'tongue in cheek' post way too seriously, but those of us who hang out here and write books really appreciate the support of the community. You have no idea how much trouble it can be to convince a publisher that something with a science/astronomy theme is salable and that there is a market for it.

That said, the last time my editor asked: "Have you put any magic in this one like I asked you to last time?" I just about blew a gasket.

Dan

[Skylook123]

Well, Dan, you could've said to the editor that the magic is that he understood the story at all.

Anyway, recent planetary studies say, and I think this is what I recall, that Mercury is unstable over a long period and is more likely than not to become rogue. Something about Jupiter's gravitational influence. We just might be the billiard ball victims in the future.

Here is a start; Mr. Google's closet is full of similar scenarios already posited.

http://www.newsweek.com/2009/06/10/when-worlds-collide.html

[JMonty]

Well, MorningMajor, if I do get this published, which I am hoping to of course, I will be all for discounted signed copies! I'm not releasing any details of this book to many people, but when its in its final draft, I'll at least tell you what the book is actually about, the title, and some goodies about it.

Right now, it is entitled "WIP #3" and I have the first chapter done, which is a whopping page and a half long in Word.

Most of the information I need on the ELE has been given to me by Dan. And, here it is:

Asteroid collision. The Baptistina group is a collection of asteroids that orbit together, thought to have been one object that shattered. The highlight is that chips off of this old block are thought to be responsible for both the Tycho Crater on Luna and the dino killer crater in Chixulub Mexico. It is thought the Tycho crater happened at near the same time. Such a inpact on Luna (50+ mile crater on the near side) would shower Earth with lots of destruction - but this would only be 'round one'. The first 'stone hailstorm' from such an impact would be a great opener - only to find that 'the big one' is still on its way an a year or two out.

Now that that is settled, I still need your help! From what Dan has told me in that little snip of information, I know roughly what would happen to the Earth and possibly the Moon. But, what I don't know is what it would do to the rest of the solar system. A fleet of about 1k ships with one large command ship needs to be able to get OUT of the way before this thing hits, but with a near miss. I was thinking along the lines of (and I'm using cardinal points randomly here) the asteroid coming from the east, and the fleet going north to get away. I was also thinking that the asteroid's striking of earth would send a shockwave? I'm not sure about that. I never took physics, and I'm rather dumb in the field. Great imagination, little science knowledge equals great aspirations, little backup.

Again, thank you all for your help in this!

Monty

[Mik3]

Stars or black holes sending the outer planets in towards us would cause some problems, you could use something like that and is certainly possible, especially when the solar system moves through the plane of the galaxy. Even rouge Planets wondering through our solar system. A distant star explodes sometime in the past a distant orbiting planet survives and is sent towards us, something like that. Sorry for my grammar.

If your book is published let us know, I live for Sci-fi.

[inksmithy]

Monty, have you ever read the Honor Harrington storylines, by David Weber?

He has a great grasp of how 3D space really is, at one point going so far as explaining why entering a system anywhere but along the ecliptic plane would increase wear and tear on the drives.

The object Dan mentioned to you in all likelihood resides somewhere on the ecliptic plane of the system, making the simplest and most logical direction of escape either up or down.

Because humans tend to spend their lives standing on the ground, down is rarely a direction we associate with escape, if we are thinking in three dimensions.

So, down can be used in a story to introduce an element of tension and apprehension in the subconscious of the reader.

Up, will introduce a sense of relief and hope.

Make sense?

Alan

[JMonty]

Alan- Makes perfect sense, I think. At least, it does until I stop reading. But, I'm exhausted at the moment, so I think I'll take another look in the morning with fresh eyes to see if I can make that understanding stick. Thanks!

[Ad Astra]

... I never took physics...

Monty

You know I bled a little inside when I read this, Monty!!!

No Physics???

Wait... when I'm asked for advice.... does this mean I can just make up stuff now?

Dan

[glowjet]

If you want to kill off our planet there is another alternative, Frying To-Night with a massive CME ( Coronal Mass Ejection )

[jamespels]

Any red giants close enough to cause us a problem if they go supernova any time soon and the rotational axis of the resulting pulsar is pointed our way? How about Betelgeuse?