bbc global warming project

[Martin 2]

Has anyone downloaded this, seems an interesting projest, the aim is to use as many computers as possible to model global warming over the next 70 years to get an accurate picture of climate change, it just runs in the background while you have your computer turned on, each computer gets a slightly different model to work on. Seems to run ok without any problems. www.bbc.co.uk/climatechange is the page, there is a good intro video you can watch which explains all.

Sorry if this has been posted before

Martin 2

[Kaptain Klevtsov]

My computers are currently doing SETI and anti-cancer drug testing. I think that these (well maybe not the SETI) are more worthwhile than propping up the Climate Change lobby. After all, IF the case for climate change is proven, what will we do about it? Is there a cure?

I was taught at school about the ice ages, which they told me came and went over (geologically speaking) short timescales. I also seem to remember something about a "little ice age" not TOO long ago.

As the climate observation records are not too accurate before the invention of the thermometer there is insufficient evidence to convince me. Also to begin collecting evidence very recently will not give a long term trend, it can only reflect the timescale of the readings.

Captain Chaos

[FLO]

Interesting idea.

(If only we put as much effort into fixing the problem as we do monitoring it :?)

[The Warthog]

I have only followed the debate on global warming peripherally, although I agree that we shouldn't produce more greenhouse gases than necessary, so I have put fluorescent bulbs in my most-used lamps, drive an economical car, stopped eating beans, etc. As a socialist, I notice that the people who claim that global warming is the result of natural, cyclical changes in the world's weather systems tend to be slightly to the right of Geo. Bush. Still, I wonder if this can be true to some extent, and while allowing for the fact that changes due to industrial activity are real, how much is one and how much is the other?

Just a passing thought that passes my mind often these days...

[FLO]

I doubt that anyone would deny that change is normal; it is the rate of change that is worrying!

http://tinyurl.com/7gpfw

[Kaptain Klevtsov]

Rate of change compared to?

What was the rate of change, say a hundred yeasr ago, when western Europe was belching out enough smoke to blacken the snow enough to modify the emmissivity and change the melt rate? Compared to the end of the last ice age (if indeed it ended already)?

The amount of "before" data is close to zero so the scientists are relying on mostly "after" data which doesn't give the full picture. I am worried that if they get it all wrong there will be global catastrophies in the economic sense as well as in the climatalogical sense.

In my business I have seen the fuel efficiencies being forced ever higher by tax increases, by government incentives and by public pressure. These, however are only local changes, and this is why a lot of the industry,which used to be in Europe,is now in China, India, Brazil, Russia etc. The migration of industry is real, and a lot of it is to countries who welcome it, and don't mind a bit of pollution, if it gets their country's economy off the floor. The real effect of this is to increase the amount of fuel used in the manufacture of the Widget and it is counterproductive. It does meet the Kyoto agreement for European countries, but that, surely, is not the point. We need to think Globally in the reduction of greenhouse gases,and exporting the "blame" is not really a good enough answer.

The point that should be made by the BBC and others in some kind of educational setting is that it IS happening, there is very little that can be done to stop it, and that we need to get a grip on what will happen next. It really is too late to change anything and far too late for finger pointing.

Energy efficiency needs to be taken seriously by every government in the world, to prevent things getting even worse, not to stop this as it's not stoppable. They need to stop talking about efficient fridges and hydrogen power and do something useful.

Must stop ranting!

Captain Chaos

[Martin 2]

Good post Cap.

In order to to prepare for whats coming we need to know what its going to be, how soon, how bad, and where.

The idea of the modeling is to get the most likely effects in terms of time and effect, its not about casting blame, as you rightly say, global warming and cooling are a natural part of the earths climate, but if we are warming up even through natural causes it will help if we know whats acoming.

Martin 2

[Martin 2]

The effects of global warming will effect different parts of the earth in different ways, for instance here in the U.K

it could get very much colder due to the Atlantic Convayer switching off stopping the the gulf stream in its tracks ( its the only reason our climate is not the same as Canada's now )

The effect that will have a single global effect is sea level increase, between 500 million and a billion people may be forced to migrate because their lands may be flooded, it may be a good idea to think about that before it happens rather than when they are knocking on the door

Martin 2

[Kaptain Klevtsov]

Couldn't agree more. But what has the "Climate Change Levy" tax on everybody in the UK got to do with preparation? And what do you think HM Gov. is doing about it? Absolutely nothing except shouting about how it's the fault of naughty industry and nothing to do with them. Then they tell us to use less energy and they heve carp lighting on almost every street in the UK. All blinkin' night, especially near my house!

Telling me to turn off lights and causing Warthog to go low energy on his lamps is one thing, but tell 'em to turn off the floodlights on (insert Gov. building here i.e Palace of westminster, Buck House).

We do more and more thermal oxidisers each year which get rid of non-toxic odours from e.g. fish packing places. They use HUGE amounts of fuel to burn off the smell and it's mandatory to fit them. Just to make Grimsby not smell of fish!

There are a million and one ways that UK Gov. could reduce fuel bills massively without even trying too hard.

Captain Chaos

[Martin 2]

Thats the point though ( couldn't agree more on your comment ) until you force goverments to treat it seriously they will go for headline policies everytime. You have to be able to put hard facts in front of them that they have to act on.

Personly I think that there is nothing that can be done to stop the earth warming unless a way is found to interupt the carbon cycle artifically, the earth will do it itself over time but its the way it does it that may cause us a few problems

Martin "

[The Warthog]

I want one of my children to get the contract for the dyke around New York. It is probably too late to stop it, and if it is partly a natural process, should we want to? At least my great grandchildren won't have to drive so far to get to the ocean.

[Martin 2]

They might have to paddle there though

Martin 2

[Astroman]

Global warming is an established fact. It's the cause that's not nailed down just yet. Ice core samples from Greenland show that the current warming trend is the most alarming in hundreds of thousands of years, and the rate at which the temperature around the north pole is rising is tied directly to the advent of the Industrial Age. I don't see how anyone could doubt for a minute the science behind these facts. Ok, I do see how G.W. Bush can, he's an idiot, but aside from him, it's just a case of selective ignorance. No offense.

There was a terrific story on CBS' "60 Minutes" last night about this very subject. A scientist who was appointed in 1980 by Ronald Reagan has spentthe last 25 years digging up the clues and writing papers on it for administration after administration, only to be thwarted by Bush and his cronies. The science is there. Reduction not in the rate of increase, but in the amounts of CO2 released and other green house gases is the key. Anything that will reduce these gases in the atmosphere will help. We can only hope our planet can recover on its own in time.

[Kaptain Klevtsov]

One of the biggest "greenhouse" gases is H2O! How do you cope with that??

The molecular structure of gases is the mechanism by which they absorb energy, in the H2O example the oxygen atom flaps it's hydrogen "wings" at a resonant frequency which matches the wavelength of the light.

It is very complicated this stuff.

Captain Chaos

[Astroman]

I don't claim to be a climatologist, but I'm pretty sure water vapor is not a green house gas. The structure alone is not what causes global warming either. It happens when carbon compounds interact with ozone in the upper atmosphere, which is what reflects ultraviolet light away from the surface which warms the air and water near the surface and so on.

As I said, the science is well known and understood, (although not by me personally). It's just a question of reducing the emission sources and the amounts we dump into the air, along with other factors. Even if we stopped, bam, now all CO2 emissions, we'd still see a rise in arctic temperatures of at least another degree C in the next twn years before it would start to normalize. That according to the scientist in the 60 Minutes show last night.

The sooner we face it, that we are the cause of the current warming trend and do something about it, the better off we'll be in the future.

[Kaptain Klevtsov]

OH NO!!!

Not the greenhouse / ozone get mixed up again!

Ozone is responsible for absorbing harmful UV light which is known to casue cancer in rats.

The absorbtion spectrum accounts for that.

Now a totally different concept - greenhouse gases.

These absorb IR light causing heating of the outer atmosphere. As the outer atmosphere becomes hot it re-radiates heat back down, which is the greenhouse effect.

Check out absobtion spectra for tri-atomic molecules.

The plot is thickening,

Captain Chaos

[radioactive]

just to say yes mate I have downloaded the climate change program and its doing its little sums in the background as I write this. re all the discussions on causes of greenhouse effects I have not seen mention of all the aircraft pollutants I may have missed that part somewhere so I do apologise now if thats the Case but if not then its another big culprit in my opinion