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Weather forecasts....

eddy

By eddy
in The Astro Lounge

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eddy

eddy

Posted
Posted

Right, as its been driving me mad and i find i spend more time trying to 'predict' the weather, does anyone else do this? If so, how accurate do you think the forecasts are?

I spend a lot of time focusing on cloud cover, from sat imagine to maps and %'s! Lol :)

Eddy

PS > Could just be me?!

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brianb

brianb

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Cloud cover is so local that several years local experience beats the forecasters every time. The sat images are useful for depressions i.e. long lasting high cloud thickeing to rain bearing low cloud, and occasionally for predicting whether large showers are going to clobber you in the next hour, but they're useless for low / thin mid level cloud / fog which really messes up observing but doesn't show up at all on the IR sat images ... and visual sat images are useless during the hours of darkness.

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eddy

eddy

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Thanks for the reply, i did find that the sat images were ok for predicting a clear patch in high cloud, as thats what aided my viewing the other night, but last night was a different picture (no pun) in the sense that the IR sat images did give a clear patch, but outside was pretty bad, guess its just a bit of local knowledge and having a good gander outside!

Eddy

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brantuk

brantuk

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I remember when Michael Fish gave the forecast late one night. No clouds, or rain or storms - he was emphatic - reports of gales were false - and specific when he said tomorrow's gonna be a lovely day.

Next day I woke up and the news had hurricane reports all over it - trees down, power out accross the whole country south of Luton - several deaths - smashed vehicles in the street - bit's of buildings blown off - it was mahem in the south.

He was out of a job after the enquiry that ensued - never saw him on tv again lol

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DarkerSky

DarkerSky

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Meto and BBC weather forecasts are useful when there is a cold front clearance so you can get timings for the clearer, crisper air coming through as this often heralds clear skies away from northern facing coasts with good transparency.

In messy situations though when low pressure systems are complex, slow moving or merge - like at the moment, either the Meto or Sat24 radar for cloud cover is best to 'judge' the general movement of cloud over your location, where the clear slots are and how lonig they are likely to last :)

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