The UK Weather, Comets, and Sod's Law

[Cygnus_X1]

I recall a few years ago getting a single brief glimpse of comet McNaught in a 10 minute gap in the cloud. Annoyingly, although the entire rest of the sky was clear for the first time in days...there was a strategically placed ( for maximum annoyance ) bank of cloud on the western horizon. The comet just barely popped out above that cloud bank for a while. That 10 minutes was all I ever saw of McNaught, before the clouds returned for days.

So now we have comet ISON. I'm surprised comets are not configured into the Met Office computer, as they are a guarantee it will be cloudy. And sure enough, just in time for ISON perihelion and re-appearance...the forecast is cloud. Lots of it. Wall to wall. The weather man might as well say 'It will be totally overcast every day until the end of December'.

The worst bit is that you just know it will be that sort of cloud ( as with McNaught ) with the odd gap that tempts you to go out and have a look. But the gaps wont be where the comet is.

Oh well. With any luck the forecast might be wrong.

[mjpfc]

I believe we (uk)  may get a gap Friday evening and Saturday morning so I am piling my gear into my Car

Friday morning to be off to high ground strasight from work, to see if I can see it in the west at dusk.

Failing that it will stay in the car Saturday night and off I go to look to the East before dawn.

Early doors, there are so many Comets around = Lovejoy, Nevski, Brewington that there will be some Cometary action

if we get gaps across the sky, and of course  whilst I'm out at a dark sight I can visit some different types of fuzzies as well.

Chin-up, and clear skies for the weekend.

(And with a bit of luck, for the Geminids too, except for a small patch of cloud that exactly follows the gibbous moon across the sky).

Pip Pip,       Mick

[The Beast]

The weather forecast is behaving itself at the moment. OK periherlion looks cloudy/foggy but I don't think ISON is going to be bright enough to see daytime anyway. Like Mick says a window in the weather is opening up, especially for Saturday. You might need to do some cloud dodging so keep an eye on the satellite imagery and be prepared to travel.

I am not an expert but here is my interpretation:

Scotland looks like it will have the best chance of clear skies on Thursday but I doubt ISON will be visible. There may be isolated breaks in the cloud/fog but I wouldn't get your hopes up.

Not confident of clear skies Friday sunrise. Best chance on east coast of Scotland and maybe the borders.

A cold front is moving south across the UK on Friday with clearer and colder weather behind it.

Friday sunset looks a possibility but it's looking like it will be cloudy in the South and plenty of cloud and the odd shower elsewhere.

Saturday sunrise looks a better prospect with not much fog anywhere and only some patches of cloud.

Saturday looks like being bright and sunny day for most people, although there will be some showers especially in the NW of Scotland and down the E Coast.

Saturday sunset is looking like the best prospect in England anyway. Again there will be patches of cloud so it will be a bit of a lottery.

After Saturday who knows when the next window will open.

I am getting most excited about Saturday morning and evening. I was going to leave work early on the Friday to travel north and try to catch sunset but I'm not so sure any more. Kind of depends on what the reports are of ISON after perihelion. If it's going to be spectacular then I'll be more willing to take a chance and go for it.

[Cygnus_X1]

Although ISON will be generally better placed in the morning sky, Friday is the one day when it will be better placed in the evening...though still very close to the sun. If it does reach magnitude -10 or some significantly bright figure, I'm determined to see it.

So far, the best comet I have seen was comet West in 1976. It barely got a mention in the media...they were probably all still too chastened by the 'comet of the century' failure of Kohoutek in 1974. I recall the tail rising above the horizon well over an hour before sunrise, in a perfectly crisp and clear sky.

[fredster]

That sounds interesting. I didn't think Ison would be back in the sky until December 3rd, so had written off any comet hunting this weekend. Will keep an eye on the latest news. A quick trip to a dark site will be in order if things look favourable.

[Cygnus_X1]

I've no idea why all the media ( the BBC for example ) are talking about December 3rd, when that is 5 days after perihelion, and the comet could have a tail of 5 or 6 degrees ( that is to say, rising a good 45 minutes before sunrise ) as early as the morning of November 29th and could have a tail as long as 10 or 12 degrees by the evening of November 29th. OK so the actual nucleus might not be readily visible, but even as early as November 29th there could be a spectacular tail rising above the horizon.

[The Beast]

Cygnus_X1 - So you want to observe on the evening of the 29th from Kent? At the moment it doesn't look good. The cold front will be clearing south and there will be a much better chance of clear skies once it moves out the way. Trouble is I'm not sure if it will do it in time for sunset. You might be taunted by clear skies after the comet has well and truly set. Still time for the forecast to change. The exact timing of a front is just the sort of thing that can change. I'm in the same boat on this one. I don't think the cloud will clear the SW until after sunset. Kind of tempting to drive up towards the Mendips. I'll decide nearer the time.

For the SW Sunday dawn is beginning to look like a possibility too.

Thanks for the note about ISON placement. I must check Stellarium.

[The Beast]

Oh God. I'm probably going to have to do some backpeddling on this stuff. There will be plenty cloud about on Friday. As per usual - trust the satellite images and not my shoddy interpretation. Anyhow the main point is it's too soon to write off observing this weekend. I feel fairly positive that I'll get some observing in.

[Special K]

Go on!!!!!! Call that weather! We're in there with a chance so the only thing to do is look for the rare opening and get in there!!!!!!!

[The Beast]

For the record, it now looks like Saturday morning is going to be spoilt by high cloud / cirrus. No longer matters - ISON is toast.

[Special K]

Better keep that scope on standby, Mick, this one doesn't look so dead after all! Mind you, it might take a 200P to see what's left:

[stevetynant]

Whatever is left definitely looks like it's brightening but the trajectory is not what was forecast from what I understand. What that means for ground based observations in the northern hemisphere at the moment is unclear.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk

[The Beast]

Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated? I think what's left of ISON is just a faint dust cloud. Anyhow the Met Office forecast is showing cloud clearing down the east coast first today. Can't say I'm optimistic about cloud clearing for sunset for where I am and I don't think there will be anything to see anyhow. The forecast is inconsitent for tomorrow morning. I have no idea how extensive any high cloud will be.

Check out the Met Office cloud and rain map:

www.metoffice.gov.uk
mouse over Weather tab.
Under 'UK Weather' click 'Map'
Click on 'cloud and rain'
Zoom out so you can see the big picture.

I like sat24.com best for satellite imagery:
http://www.sat24.com/en/gb
but you can get similar from the Met Office:

Open a new tab and:
www.metoffice.gov.uk
mouse over Weather tab
Under 'Observations' click 'Map'
Select either 'Satellite visible' or 'Satellite infrarad'
Again zoom out to see the UK.

The 'UK Weather' 'Five day' is also useful including humidity and visibility.