Solar activity - possible aurora's

[Kp6]

Over the last month solar activity has continued to increase sharply, with an X-class flare and dozens of M-class flares occurring in the last four weeks.

In the space of the last 32 hours there have been 10 M-class flares all from a variety of active regions on the sun. Of all these flares, two are of particular interest, both were 'long duration flares' and both have emitted very bright CME's.

The first cme came from AR1166 which is positioned close to the centre of the solar disk, a partial halo CME is observed on Lasco c2 + c3 with an estimated speed of around 700km/s.

The second CME came from AR1164 positioned close to the sun's western limb, this explosion was of a high potency.

Incredibly dense with a velocity of over 2000km/s. Despite it's position near the limb, some of the ejected matter is earthbound. There is also an ongoing solar radiation storm as a result of this explosion.

I believe this event will trigger minor geomagnetic storming in the next 30-50 hours with planetery kp values between 4 and 6 very likely. There is a possibility of severe geomagnetic storming occurring (kp7+)

More strong solar flares are likely in the coming days, AR11166 continues to grow in size and potential as it becomes 'squarely' earth facing. X-class flares are possible from 1166, as well as a number of other active regions. Well worth watching!!!

[Kp6]

Little update from the space weather prediction center.

March 8, 2011(1500 UTC) (Activity Update): Shock Arrival Expected. A fast shock driven by a CME from late yesterday is expected to pass ACE in the next 3-6 hours. SWPC forecasters anticipate G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storms into the early hours of March 9 (UTC). The expected Geomagnetic Activity adds to the R1 (Minor ) and R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackouts, and the S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm of the past 24 hours. The disk is still hot, watch for updates. link

wooow so a prediction of the 2nd cme to arrive between 6pm and 9pm tonight, that is flippin quick, around 22-25 hours travelling time from the sun to earth to be exact. Geomagnetic storms at the KP5-KP6 level are also anticipated by the forecasters.

[Kp6]

Another update from Noaa's space weather prediction center.

March 8, 2011 (2000 UTC) -- Models Indicate Later CME Arrival. Further analysis with ENLIL and other models now suggests the CME from nearly 24 hours ago, clocking a speed of more than 2000 km/s as it left the Sun, may not arrive until midday tomorrow, March 9. Intricacies relating to the density of the ambient solar wind ahead -- and the subsequent deceleration of the ejecta -- are expected to lengthen its travel time. When it does arrive, look for G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic activity to follow.

[Kp6]

Solar activity remaining high with an X-class flare from earth facing active region 1166.

[Kp6]

There appears to be very little matter ejected during the X-class flare, a few hours before the X-flare there was a C9 flare from the same region. This explosion appears to have an earthbound cme associated with it, though on lasco c2 imagery it looks rather faint with a slow velocity.

A solar wind stream from a coronal hole should hit earth around the same time as the C9 flare related cme as well as any earthbound matter from the X-class flare, possibly sparking a spell of minor storming on it's arrival sometime on the 12th or 13th.

In recent hours the largest flare to occur was an M1.1 that came from the eastern limb, there was a cme ejected but is heading for Stereo B and not earth. There also appears to be an ejection of matter from earth facing sunspot region 1166 around 1230am 11/03. There was no notable flare activity during the cme lift off. Will be interesting to see what noaa have to say about this tomorrow.

[stolenfeather]

There has been so many possibilities to see the auroras in the last few weeks. Living as north as I do,.. I would have front row seats but can you believe that clouds have ruined EVERY chance I had?

Isabelle

[Talitha]

It was clear tonight and there was definitely some low-level Auroral activity going on... really nice to see after such a long cloudy period.

[Kp6]

It was clear tonight and there was definitely some low-level Auroral activity going on... really nice to see after such a long cloudy period.

It's nice to catch a display after the long solar slumber. The geo-storm is still ongoing this evening!. In fact it appears to be more intense than last night with recent kp values of 6 and local k-indices for the uk almost reaching 7 in the last hour. Rubbish weather here though.

There has been so many possibilities to see the auroras in the last few weeks. Living as north as I do,.. I would have front row seats but can you believe that clouds have ruined EVERY chance I had?

Isabelle

I hope you catch your chance Isabelle, tonight might be a good opportunity to view the aurora if the weather's right.

[Kp6]

A quick glance at today's solar disk shows things are very quiet. The sunspot number is a fraction of what it was only a week or 2 ago with a number of active regions disappearing over the limb.

Don't be fooled by the sun's deceptively blank expression! The far side still looks very active according to Nasa's Stereo ahead. Stereo b shows much less activity, the side of the sun that stereo b looks at will be earth facing in the next few days meaning things should remain quiet for the coming week.

The only notable recent activity was a C3 flare from departing sunspot region 11169 last night around 7pm. A considerable sized cme erupted during the explosion. It goes to show that it is not the flare class that determines the size or strength of any associated cme.

[Kp6]

13 days later and as expected we have a hive of activity on the solar surface with a number of C class flare's, some low M-class flares and several cme's in the last few days.

Here's an image from Nasa's stereo A of a violent eruption on the far side of the sun on 21/03.

Full movie of the eruption here (mpg file, needs to be downloaded to your hard drive)

Late last night lasco c2 captured this image of a cme. x-ray flux at the time records a C1 flare. The matter appears to arise from 1176 but it is plausible that it could be a large filament eruption involving other active regions connected to 1176 on the solar surface, there is a lot of plasma ejected. There may be some earth directed matter but the vast majority should sail wide of earth. A spell of disruptive geomagnetic activity is possible once this cme sweeps past earth.

click here for a gif movie of the eruption.

The next 7 to 10 days will be of interest as all the active regions travel across the earth facing side of the solar disk. More M-class flare's are likely as well as more cme's from 1176 and 1183. The region responsible for the extravagant farside explosion on 21/03 mentioned above (1169) is due to appear over the eastern limb in the next couple of days and could also bear potential for flare activity.

During the last 24 hours earth has felt the effects of a faint cme that erupted on 24/03. Solar wind densities reached incredibly high values at above 80p/cm3 but the slow velocity and northward magnetic orientation meant that auroral activity remained at high latitudes. With a high peak particle density the aurora would have been incredibly bright and colourful.

[Kp6]

Pics are from spaceweather.com, the first one taken in Lapland the second Quebec in Canada. Simply stunning.

As I expected, an incredibly bright and colourful aurora due to the extremely high proton density of the solar wind.

[Kp6]

At around 930pm this evening a spike in the solar wind speed was detected with a velocity of around 700km/s. Prior to this spike the magnetic field was already in an active state so a period of minor storming looks likely in the coming hours (conditions equal to or higher than kp5). Aurora displays are possible north of 54N.

It looks like the most recent disruption is caused by a wind stream from a coronal hole and not an incoming cme.

The cme ejected on 29/03 may brush past during the coming hours enhancing the magnetic field even further.