Damien1975

Yes Jim, what could the outcome be though?

there is a lot of talk of bad outcomes 

11 minutes ago, Damien1975 said:

Still a little lost what happens if it does not stop dimming and the rate it is dimming then something will happen in our lifetime 

 

what would happen if it continued dimming?

This is the part that I am unsure of the outcome this can be the worst outcome from what I have seen

Still a little lost what happens if it does not stop dimming and the rate it is dimming then something will happen in our lifetime 

what would happen if it continued dimming?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1130676last paragraph above 

And although there are signs that the dimming may be slowing, it could be that Betelgeuse doesn’t get brighter as expected – and that increases the chances, however slim, that it will explode as a supernova.

“I think it is a low probability,” he said. “But it could.”

also this article 

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stargazing-guide-february-betelgeuse-fading-venus-a9314366.html%3famp

Also I found this 

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stargazing-guide-february-betelgeuse-fading-venus-a9314366.html%3famp

4 minutes ago, Islander said:

Everything has to happen some time, and not all of the possibilities are happening.  The scientific consensus seems to be that the dimming isn't that unusual unless it persists.  Even if it does persist it's more likely that it'll return at some point.  A supernova is unlikely, but in the event it happens in our lifetime, it's not a threat.  It's also more likely to produce a neutron star than a black hole but again, neither are dangerous to Earth.

But if it continues to dim until it in gone who knows what will happen and affect us? And if it continues dimming the way it is then it will happen soon?

i am reading all this stuff online and on other forums. 
 

why is that not being mentioned here?

6 minutes ago, Islander said:

It does sound like you're confused.

If it returns to normal brightness then it'll carry on as normal, no supernova just a red supergiant star.

If it continues dimming, then something new is happening but the likelihood is that the effect will be down to expulsion of material which partially obscures the star and eventually it'll brighten again.

If it were to become a supernova, then it wouldn't affect us apart from being visible in daytime and eventually changing the shape of Orion forever.  To become a black hole it has to undergo catastrophic gravitational collapse and that would produce a supernova.  It's still not  dangerous to Earth though.

If it continues dimming, then something new is happening but the likelihood is that the effect will be down to expulsion of material which partially obscures the star and eventually it'll brighten again.
 

Or it will continues dim until it’s gone  so this could collapse upon itself

And all these possibilities are happening now in our lifetimes?

also it is possibly as close as 400 light years 

I am really confused with all this to be honest. 

what I have been reading is 

if it starts illuminating again then is will become a supernova and it’s at a safe distance 

if it continues dimming it will explode into a black hole.  Which at the distance is dangerous 
 

So far with all the dimming it looks like it’s in the process of becoming a black hole. Both scenarios are very very close to happening

Yes but don’t black holes suck matter in around them and grow? 
 

basically concenus is with the drastic dimming and the fact it has never been dimmer and still going that whatever happens will happen very very soon. They think supernova but can keep dimming and become a black hole. 
 

now from what I have read on different boards is that the distance on if it would become a black hole would be to close for comfort.   
 

As I mentioned the day of February 21 will tell us which way it is going to go.

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2...urve_strip.png
The most recent measurements put the magnitude of Betelgeuse at about +1.66, the dimmest its been in our 25 years of photometery," says Edward Guinan of Villanova University.
Answers might be forthcoming on Feb. 21st. Astronomers have long known that Betelgeuse is a variable star.
If Betelegeuse starts to bounce back on Feb. 21st, this whole episode might just be a deeper-than-average pulsation, and perhaps the supernova watch can be called off. However, notes Guinan, "even if the 430-day period is still working, this would indicate a minimum brightness near 0.9 mag--much brighter than the current value near 1.6 mag. So something very unusual is going on."

Stay tuned for updates as Feb. 21st approaches

It is only 600 to 800 lights years away isn’t that daily close if it becomes a black hole. The closest to earth is like 3000 light years, so this would become the closest to us 

mans i read we will know by February 21

Thank you all

6 minutes ago, Islander said:

Why would a stellar merger become a black hole?  Also, where did the date pop up from?

I'm really not sure what you're looking for...

No it’s a new notion that because of the unordinary dimming it May become a black hole 

What’s so funny , I am being serious here?

So they are now predicting that Betelgeuse will become a black hole, if this is the case it changes the whole outcome and can possibly have dangerous impacts to planet earth seems to be the new possible consensus, anyone else here anything about this possibility 

the date of feb 21 is coming up a lot now.

this will make it the closest black hole to earth 

So what would happen if it became a black hole instead?

also why is the date feb 21 important for this 

31 minutes ago, Rob Sellent said:

Judging by all the threads you've set up this week, I imagine you're rooting for some cosmic phenomenon that will indicate dooms day for Earth. To wet your appetite, have a gander at the life cycle of stars like the Sun or else massive asteroid impact.

So my posts have been accurate that why most have no replies, something nag is coming soon

This is the number calculated 9.7847e+9 is that 9 point something light years 

3000 mparsecs so it 9 light years 

map that means whatever caused it is just about to hit us, 

S200208q was detected recently. It appears to be a binary black hole event about 3000 megaparsecs from here.

S200129m was detected recently. This appears to be a fairly nearby (900 megaparsecs) binary black hole with a very narrowly defined direction

anyone else feel to close for comfort?

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MNRAS.465.2654W/abstract

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020AAS...23513106C/abstract

https://www.aavso.org/apps/webobs/results/?star=BETELGEUSE&num_results=200

came across this 

I don’t understand exactly don’t these bubbles expanding and coming at us have a deadly effect on the planet like end of earth

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/02/07/the-expanding-universe-might-not-depend-on-how-you-measure-it-but-when/amp/
 

i am having trouble understanding this article, is this about the Hubble constant that weeks ago found a 3rd way to measure?

also what do they mean by gravitational collapse, is that something they did not know existed in the universe 

Thank you but what effect will they have on earth if they are expanding towards us