What caused my comment is that if the smoothed blue line (it stops in mid 2015 on this graph) continues to run parallel to the forecast line, then the minimum is likely to be in mid-2018. This graph tells a different story, using the same data... presumably it is extrapolating the actual smoothed data with an assumption of a 2020 minimum. The interesting thing is that the sunspot number for the last few days is appears to be zero. Dipping to zero appears not to be unusual at