A good year for Leonids?

[andrew63]

The Leonids meteor shower could provide a good display this year - peak around Nov. 17-19 from a wave of particles from comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle.

https://astronomy.com/magazine/news/2022/11/the-leonids-promise-to-dazzle-this-year

[scotty1]

I wonder how cloudy it will be in blighty 🤔

"The Leonids, arguably history’s most important annual meteor shower" ??

Not sure why they wrote it's arguably history s most important meteor shower. 

https://www.cloudynights.com/topic/845129-interesting-leonids-2022/

Edited November 13, 2022 by scotty1

[maw lod qan]

Past few peaks have been cloudy for me. At least this time I'm off work those days.

[Leo S]

7 hours ago, scotty1 said:

I wonder how cloudy it will be in blighty 🤔

"The Leonids, arguably history’s most important annual meteor shower" ??

Not sure why they wrote it's arguably history s most important meteor shower. 

https://www.cloudynights.com/topic/845129-interesting-leonids-2022/

The Leonids are credited as the "spark" that gave rise to modern meteor science:
 

http://web.archive.org/web/20160307034457/http://meteorshowersonline.com/leonids.html

 

Quote

The night of November 12-13, 1833, not only marks the discovery of the Leonid meteor shower, but it marks the actual birth of meteor astronomy. During the hours following sunset on November 12, some astronomers noted an unusual number of meteors in the sky, but it was the early morning hours of the 13th that left the greatest impression on the people of eastern North America. During the 4 hours which preceded dawn, the skies were lit up by meteors.

Reactions to the 1833 display varied from the hysterics of the superstitious claiming Judgement Day was at hand, to just plain excitement by the scientific, who estimated that a thousand meteors a minute emanated from the constellation Leo. Newspapers of the time reveal that almost no one was left unaware of the spectacle, for if they were not awakened by the cries of excited neighbors, they were usually awakened by flashes of light cast into normally dark bedrooms by the fireballs.

 

[scotty1]

Looking cloudy hereabouts , looking better in South West England.

Edited November 18, 2022 by scotty1

[andrew63]

It's another lovely night in S Wales.

 

 

[scotty1]

10 minutes ago, andrew63 said:

It's another lovely night in S Wales.

 

 

I'm not jealous 🤥 

[StevieDvd]

And here in Stevenage🙄

[scotty1]

🤐 If you have a helicopter....

Edited November 19, 2022 by scotty1

[Leo S]

1 hour ago, scotty1 said:

Looking cloudy hereabouts , looking better in South West England.

Same here in Derby. Hoping it improves later. I'd rather it was cloudy now than from 05-06 UT! Leonid predictions tend to be quite accurate with the timings - it's usually the ZHR/brightness that is hard to model accurately. Either way it's always good to keep an eye out either side of the predicted time, when possible!

[andrew63]

Just saw a fast meteor zipping towards the square of Pegasus just after midnight.

[Leo S]

The cameras got a bit of light drizzle (not the first time!) earlier (around 01:15) so had to stop running, and cover up.  Not looking much better now.. but keeping a close eye for any sign of improvement. Good to hear someone is catching some!

[Leo S]

Clearing up here now (03:00)!

Spoke too soon. There was a nice clear patch, but back to the cloud now..

Edited November 19, 2022 by Leo S

[andrew63]

Fast moving meteor disappears  to horizon 6.32, bringing in the dawn! 

[andrew63]

Caught this nice one at 6.10

 

 

[scotty1]

Too much cloud would you believe, I called it off at 01.30. 

[Tomatobro]

Stack of last night's meteors. Sporadic and Leonid

[Leo S]

Definitely an increase in bright events around 06:00. Looks like the predictions were quite accurate. Unfortunately it stayed cloudy here.

[Leo S]

15 hours ago, andrew63 said:

Fast moving meteor disappears  to horizon 6.32, bringing in the dawn! 

This one at 06:36 perhaps? Quite a bright fireball!

[scotty1]

There's a bright meteor on the UKMON at 04.49 from Basildon. 

I had a DSLR running from 0.100-02.30 only saw one meteor, as I was adjusting my camera, but it wasn't very bright. It was below Taurus heading NW. Tracing it back in may of been a Leonid.

[maw lod qan]

On 13/11/2022 at 03:12, scotty1 said:

 

"The Leonids, arguably history’s most important annual meteor shower" ??

Not sure why they wrote it's arguably history s most important meteorshower?

Because it's peak falls on my birthday every year! 😄

But to be very honest, it's never given me much of a gift!

There is 2032 to hope for, if I don't slip into a black hole before then!🙄

I'll be 77 then if I hold out!

I managed to get out on the night/morning of the 17th/18th around 2:30 and saw one nice one.

Then the clouds closed in.

[scotty1]

38 minutes ago, maw lod qan said:

Because it's peak falls on my birthday every year! 😄

But to be very honest, it's never given me much of a gift!

There is 2032 to hope for, if I don't slip into a black hole before then!🙄

I'll be 77 then if I hold out!

I managed to get out on the night/morning of the 17th/18th around 2:30 and saw one nice one.

Then the clouds closed in.

When I've looked for Leonids it's not been impressive, but it has been prolific in the past according to the reports. 

The Perseids ,and Geminis are usually worth checking as you know.

Not sure how much light pollution you have there? But I'd love those thunderstorms you get.

Edited November 21, 2022 by scotty1

[Leo S]

Most meteor showers are fickle. They produce low rates for many years in a row. Then when Earth does encounter a rich patch, more often than not you have to be in the right place at the right time to be able to make the most of it. I caught the 1998 Leonid fireball outburst by complete chance, before I knew anything about meteors, but it was the wake-up call that alerted me to future outbursts. I (perhaps naively) decided to sit out the 1999 Leonids, and missed one storm, but I traveled to Australia for the 2001 Leonids, where we saw rates of around 2000+ per hour at peak. If I'd stayed in the UK I would have missed it.

Now I'm into my 50's, if I'm honest I'm not as keen to chase outbursts over long distances as I was when I was younger, partly because I'd want to run multiple cameras, and the logistics become much more complicated.

So I'm doing the next best thing as far as I can see, and looking for a nice property to observe from here in the UK. I'll just observe as often as I can (plus run cameras), and hope that something that is not predicted occurs. There is a reasonable chance that strong outbursts or even storms can be missed given how many meteor showers there are, and we can't keep an eye on everything, at least not just yet.

It's worth chasing certain predictions if you are able, and inclined to. I may yet be tempted to head to the US in 2028 for the predicted outburst then. There are actually a few possibilities for high activity in coming years (I've put a list together here - note: once you've checked out the intro, skip to the next post for the predictions, as there are some mistakes I could not edit in the first post!), but probably no storms. Even so, all opportunities should be grasped with both hands if you want to make sure you don't miss anything. There is also always a chance that a prediction is UNDERESTIMAED, although you may have to put up with many duds before you get lucky.

[scotty1]

On 21/11/2022 at 21:58, Leo S said:

Most meteor showers are fickle. They produce low rates for many years in a row. Then when Earth does encounter a rich patch, more often than not you have to be in the right place at the right time to be able to make the most of it. I caught the 1998 Leonid fireball outburst by complete chance, before I knew anything about meteors, but it was the wake-up call that alerted me to future outbursts. I (perhaps naively) decided to sit out the 1999 Leonids, and missed one storm, but I traveled to Australia for the 2001 Leonids, where we saw rates of around 2000+ per hour at peak. If I'd stayed in the UK I would have missed it.

 

That must of been awesome to see all those meteors. Not sure I'm going all the way to Australia to watch meteors! You must be really dedicated to do that. 

As you said luck plays a big part sometimes.

I saw a bright fireball from my garden a few yrs back, I think it was February 2018. It started overhead and headed south, I thought it was a firework when I first saw it, as there were yellow sparks trailing from it. The meteor flashed green twice as it sunk below the houses opposite, silhouetting the roof. There were reports of sightings from Scotland. I actually had my camera in the garden and was just setting it up. If i had done what I'd planned to do, which was set my camera running from the loft. I would of captured it, by taking my camera and tripod into the garden, I delayed just long enough to miss it....🤬

 

[Leo S]

8 hours ago, scotty1 said:

That must of been awesome to see all those meteors. Not sure I'm going all the way to Australia to watch meteors! You must be really dedicated to do that. 

As you said luck plays a big part sometimes.

I saw a bright fireball from my garden a few yrs back, I think it was February 2018. It started overhead and headed south, I thought it was a firework when I first saw it, as there were yellow sparks trailing from it. The meteor flashed green twice as it sunk below the houses opposite, silhouetting the roof. There were reports of sightings from Scotland. I actually had my camera in the garden and was just setting it up. If i had done what I'd planned to do, which was set my camera running from the loft. I would of captured it, by taking my camera and tripod into the garden, I delayed just long enough to miss it....🤬

 

Well 2001 was a a no-brainer for multiple reasons for me. Firstly they nailed the prediction for the 1999 Leonids. The 1999 storm was predicted, and occurred within minutes of the prediction, so there was a good chance the predictions for another storm in 2001 would also be accurate. Secondly I had nothing better to do at the time, and lastly, 9/11 was a couple of months earlier. Air travel effectively came to a halt, and they wanted to get people flying again, so I was able to find a return flight for a fraction of the price I would have had to pay a few months earlier. Also, the club secretary of the Mt. Isa Astronomy club in Aus, Len Fullham (IIRC) posted an open invitation on the interweb for anyone to observe the Leonids from their (pristine) observing site next to Lake Moondara in the outback. Given that I was aware what the Leonids were capable of, it was an offer that was very hard to refuse!

Your fireball tale of woe is all too familiar. The trouble with these big random fireballs is that while they are actually not that rare, in order to catch them, you need to be recording/imaging before they appear. Even then I've lost count of how many the cameras have only just missed when they have been running. That is frustrating! You've probably heard me say before that, I think if I could have had another one or two cameras running, I'd have caught many large events - so far I've only caught one. Other than that, it's just a matter of running a camera/cameras as much as possible, and over time they will catch big fireballs. Someone posted this recently on another forum - just shows what can be done with a few dedicated cameras!