Not 1, but 3 possible meteor outbursts predicted this month!

[Leo S]

The first is at 10:20 UT on May 15th, which is well timed for southwestern US/Mexico:

https://www.imo.net/possible-meteor-outburst-on-15-may-2022/

Not sure what the second is, but the third is the Tau Herculids at the end of the month, which I thought was a "dead" prediction, as there have been no recent updates, but it looks like there may still be a chance.

As always, keep in mind that there is a high chance of seeing nothing (or very little) with these kinds of predictions, but the flip side is, it could turn out to be a major event, and if you don't try, you will DEFINITELY miss it.

Here we have three potential major events in a short space of time. Take advantage if you can, and set up a camera (or a few, if you can). Hopefully one or more of the predictions will be accurate. Outbursts and storms do occur from time to time, and it has been a while since there has been a strong meteor outburst or storm. We are probably over due a good one.

Good luck!

[Leo S]

It's become a bit more clear what the predictions are for 30/31 May after spaceweather.com published a link to this IMCCE page, and the IMO published an update.

There may be three outbursts during this period, none of them very favourable for the UK, but the main event, possible debris from the breakup of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann in 1995, which is predicted to occur @ ~05:00UT on 31 May, might be worth trying for, but will be a challenge due to the sky brightness! It needs to be a bit earlier than predicted for us here in the UK to stand a chance. As it stands, the best place to be for it is Baja California, and most N/S America should get a chance (see attached diagram which shows where the radiant will be high, or not).

 

It is a long shot since the meteoroids will need to be large, but debris from a breakup could be just that. It may be a rare opportunity to catch some earthgrazing daylight fireballs. If anyone wants to give it a try, here are some thoughts I posted over on the DPR.com astro forum:

"

The main problem for us/those at mid-northern latitudes is going to be the encroaching dawn. The only hope is early encounters with larger meteoroids. You'd think, when an object breaks up as catastrophically as this did, that there would be plenty of big chunks.

So perhaps there may even be a chance of daylight fireball grazers. That's not as far-fetched as it might sound - during the 1998 Leonids, and the 2001 Leonids I observed fireballs well into dawn, with the Sun just below the horizon. The trouble is they are so long/slow, for a still image is probably going to require stopping down and/or even perhaps ND filters! Video is the only real solution once it gets too bright.

As for where to aim, my only experience of outbursts of earthgrazers were Leonids (in 2005 but especially 2001).  Most grazers would start 50+ degrees from the radiant, and the best chance of catching a meteor under any circumstance is from around 50 degrees above the horizon AND LOWER. Given that it gets light first in the east, then I'd aim along the west, as you suggested.

I've recently (second night tonight) started operating two a7S cameras simultaneously, and aiming one out of an upstairs window, which gives me a good view SSE, as well as SW, so I may cover high in the sky in the S (not ideal) and the SW (a little better) if I stay at home. I may take a trip down the road where I can point more toward the N, which should give me a better chance of catching the ends of the meteors. If they are big, long lasting then it would be a great opportunity to catch an anti-radiant shot. I observed earth grazing Leonid fireballs coming withing 10-20 degrees of the anti-radiant in 2001!

For visual observing, just lay down and look up, then adjust as necessary. If possible observe up to 06:00UT.

"

On top of this outburst there could be two others. This from the IMO:

"

The Earth will also cross two more debris fields produced by the 1892 and 1897 returns of this comet. These are predicted to occur at 16 UT on May 30th (favoring the western Pacific, Asia, and Oceania) and 10UT on the 31st (favoring western North America and the Eastern Pacific). These two debris fields are thought to be much less dense than the 1995 event, therefore little activity is expected from them.

No matter your location, the meteors will be shooting from the same location in the sky. This will NOT be from the faint star known as tau Herculis, which is why I am refraining from calling this shower the tau Herculids. Radiants from disruptive comets such as SW3 can be located in different portions of the sky year to year, depending on the location of the debris trail. The expected radiant for meteors from SW3 this year is located at the position of 13:56 (209) +28. This position is located in western Bootes, approximately 8 degrees northwest of the brilliant orange star known as Arcturus (alpha Bootis). This area of the sky is best placed near 22:00 (10pm) local daylight saving time, when it lies highest in the sky. It should be noted that the radiant is expected to be a large area of the sky and not a pinpoint. So any slow meteor from this general area of the sky can be expected to be from SW3. You need not look directly overhead as meteors may appear in any portion of the sky. They are actually more likely to appear at lower elevations in the sky since at these elevations one is looking through a far thicker slice of the atmosphere that when looking straight upwards.

"

Edited May 27, 2022 by Leo S
added note about attachment

[Leo S]

Last minute update! This abstract suggests that any meteors will be very dim, which is not good news for the UK, as they will need to be very bright (as well as early), or super-bright if the prediction timing is correct.

On the other hand, some meteors from SW3 have already been observed by at least one camera network, and a Spanish network has recorded an SW3 fireball. That may mean nothing for the predictions tonight, or perhaps there is a slight chance it is a hint of what might be coming. Either way I'll be ready with a couple of cameras should the skies clear. Right now it looks like they might be a chance of some clear patches around the peak time, but it'll probably mean dodging rain showers!

Good luck to those who try, but be warned that there is a high chance that nothing will be visible, at least from the UK.

[Pixies]

Posted this in the other thread:

 

[VNA]

 

 

"Calculations by different teams have provided three different peaks, all within a 22-minute time span. The most recent one places the peak at 05:04 UTC on May 31, 2022. For much of the Western Hemisphere, this translates to Monday night, May 30-31. It would be 10:04 p.m. PDT (North American west coast), 11:04 p.m. MDT, 12:04 a.m. CDT early on the morning of May 31 (central North America), and 1:04 a.m. EDT on May 31 (eastern North America). Translate 5:04 UTC on May 31 to your time zone."

 

Hello, Will be out in the garden at 10 p.m. The Bottle is 5, so not sure if I will see anything?

More likely will hear or see a raccoon or skunk, won't be a wasted time anyway, although I could hear a few owls?

As long as the fog does not come in?

Keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[maw lod qan]

Went out at 12:00 and we were having a storm!

But it was the type with clouds and over an inch of rain!

Said a few comments I can't repeat here and went back to bed!

Glad I set the camera up in the observatory planning on just rolling the roof open later when the time was right.

Hope someone got lucky!

[VNA]

Hello, no storm of any kind, just beautiful stars at the pic indicated by NASA?

[Leo S]

21 hours ago, VNA said:

 

 

"Calculations by different teams have provided three different peaks, all within a 22-minute time span. The most recent one places the peak at 05:04 UTC on May 31, 2022. For much of the Western Hemisphere, this translates to Monday night, May 30-31. It would be 10:04 p.m. PDT (North American west coast), 11:04 p.m. MDT, 12:04 a.m. CDT early on the morning of May 31 (central North America), and 1:04 a.m. EDT on May 31 (eastern North America). Translate 5:04 UTC on May 31 to your time zone."

 

Hello, Will be out in the garden at 10 p.m. The Bottle is 5, so not sure if I will see anything?

More likely will hear or see a raccoon or skunk, won't be a wasted time anyway, although I could hear a few owls?

As long as the fog does not come in?

Keeping my fingers crossed!

 

Sorry to not reply earlier. There was no way to say for sure if anything would be visible for you. It does look as though we had a smattering of negative magnitude/borderline fireballs here in Europe earlier on, but it seems that brighter events became less frequent later on, which would have been around the time you were looking. Hope you got to see something despite this.

Although it was not the storm many had hoped for, at least we now know this shower is capable of bright/very bright visual meteors, which could bode well for future encounters in the years ahead. With a favourable encounter, perhaps we might see a storm in coming years.

[Leo S]

12 hours ago, maw lod qan said:

Went out at 12:00 and we were having a storm!

But it was the type with clouds and over an inch of rain!

Said a few comments I can't repeat here and went back to bed!

Glad I set the camera up in the observatory planning on just rolling the roof open later when the time was right.

Hope someone got lucky!

It was a similar story here. Cloudy all night, with a few small gaps in the clouds. At one point one of the cameras got rained on and I had to bring it indoors, but I had a bag to protect it (and the recorder) thankfully.

Despite this I did manage to glimpse one bright event through thin cloud. It was in my peripheral vision so I didn't get a good look, but it was orange/copper in colour as many others have observed/reported, so I'm fairly certain it was a SW3 related event.

[skybadger]

I detected 6 meteors brighter than mag4 in 2 HR slot around midnight  of which maybe 3 radiate from the expected radiant.

Got a really nice sporadic though.

 

 

[Leo S]

2 hours ago, VNA said:

Hello, no storm of any kind, just beautiful stars at the pic indicated by NASA?

No storm, but there was definitely a significant outburst. There is already some commentary here, and on spaceweather.com. We will have to wait for a proper analysis, but it looks like most of the visually observable activity came from the 1897 and 1892 dust trails.

[Leo S]

52 minutes ago, skybadger said:

I detected 6 meteors brighter than mag4 in 2 HR slot around midnight  of which maybe 3 radiate from the expected radiant.

Got a really nice sporadic though.

 

 

Good to hear someone caught something! I am running cameras tonight (it's looking clear - and I always run cameras if it's clear.) and perhaps there will still be a few about. Typical that the night AFTER the main event looks great in terms of cloud.

[Leo S]

Be alert for more activity tonight. I've just observed a slow dim orange meteor which lines up with the radiant, and possibly a fireball, though it was behind a tree, so I can't be sure.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Leo S
adding to description

[skybadger]

I was out in person last night and saw nothing but a glorious sporadic. Passing cloud with large haps was the order of the night. Packed in about 0115 BST.

[Leo S]

14 hours ago, skybadger said:

I was out in person last night and saw nothing but a glorious sporadic. Passing cloud with large haps was the order of the night. Packed in about 0115 BST.

UKMON probably caught that sporadic. I noticed a few nice ones on there last night. I managed to run cameras the entire night (semi-cloudy much of the time) and caught two or three negative magnitude meteors, all in the distance, so not very impressive. Nothing related to the outburst.