When will shortages in Astro equipment improve?

[Ouroboros]

There are several bits of kit I’m looking at buying and I keep finding they’re  ‘Out of stock’.  OK we’ve just come through a Covid pandemic with all the consequences of that for manufacture and shipping. But when are things likely to  improve d’you think? Are we looking at months or years? 

[Carbon Brush]

Quite honestly, months is optimistic.

In my work I hear about unexpected shortages of all sorts of materials.
I am being quoted 12 months on semiconductor items and have heard 2023 mentioned.

To buy a scope & mount you need glass (obviously) then steel and ali for the rigid parts. Chemicals to make the rubber O rings, eyepiece cups, etc.
Chemicals again to make plastic knobs and brackets.
A goto mount requires plastics, motors (steel parts & copper wire), then electronics.
Displays use all sorts of exotic materials.

So in reality I don't expect supply issues to be resolved when the next container ships. Or even the one after.

Sorry to be the bearer of doom and gloom.

[johninderby]

Think it will be a very uneven improvement. Some brands will get back to normal by later this year but others could take a lot longer.

Edited September 15, 2021 by johninderby

[callisto]

How long is a piece of string?  🙄

[Tim]

Lots of unpredictable variables I guess, the same issues are facing a whole range of unrelated businesses at the moment. And not just on imported goods either.

[7170]

The only thing I would be willing to put some money on is that we are going to see rampant inflation over the next few years on electronics and related items, construction, plus utilities. Maybe all raw materials (metals, chemicals etc) too but I don't know enough about our production/mining capacity vs demand for that.

[xtreemchaos]

im having problems with GPUs, there are some for sale but lets say a nividia rtx 3080 is msrp £699 there asking around £1200 and i carnt pay that much well will not pay that much, ive 3 built riggs waiting for gpus ive found a rtx2080 but i what it for my own rigg .

[BCN_Sean]

I was talking to a supplier the other day about equipment, and not as small market volume as astro gear, and they offered up a nugget of things becoming more widely available "about six months after the motor industry is back to full tilt".  That's not really an answer though, but seems a reasonable assumption with the relative size of what that market consumes.

[W0nderste]

2 hours ago, callisto said:

How long is a piece of string?  🙄

Twice as long as middle to one end 😉

[johninderby]

.

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by johninderby

[Moodtastic]

1 hour ago, xtreemchaos said:

im having problems with GPUs, there are some for sale but lets say a nividia rtx 3080 is msrp £699 there asking around £1200 and i carnt pay that much well will not pay that much, ive 3 built riggs waiting for gpus ive found a rtx2080 but i what it for my own rigg .

I settled for a 6600xt for my new build (replacing 6 year old pc) mainly as I could find one. I got the 6600xt for msrp, but it was still a £390 GPU which 3 years ago the equivelant level of GPU at the time would have been £200. So even mrsp is now massively inflated and will be going forward.

I have noticed that availability of astro equipment has improved a little since last autumn and winter. I mean, if you want an 80mm triplet they can be found which is an inprovement (you just might have to settle for a different brand say WO instead of Skywatcher), and the same is true of mounts.

[xtreemchaos]

1 hour ago, Moodtastic said:

I settled for a 6600xt for my new build (replacing 6 year old pc) mainly as I could find one. I got the 6600xt for msrp, but it was still a £390 GPU which 3 years ago the equivelant level of GPU at the time would have been £200. So even mrsp is now massively inflated and will be going forward.

I have noticed that availability of astro equipment has improved a little since last autumn and winter. I mean, if you want an 80mm triplet they can be found which is an inprovement (you just might have to settle for a different brand say WO instead of Skywatcher), and the same is true of mounts.

Thanks mate, my hands are tied regarding there for customers 2 riggs are for AI learning/processing and a bit of gaming and this is what the guy wants GeForce RTX™ 3080 GAMING OC WATERFORCE WB 10G (rev. 1.0) Gallery | Graphics Card - GIGABYTE U.K. now i can import from down under but there just too much money. i think im going to talk to the guy.

[Ouroboros]

Thanks for your comments everyone.  I guess we just have to sit and wait. I similarly feel things won’t recover quickly. I could curse because there were some items I had identified to buy but  put off because delivery wasn’t convenient.  Strike while the iron’s hot is the lesson there I feel. 

[7170]

I do wonder if there will be a lot more on the used market in the coming months/years. Suspect lots of people bought astro stuff over lockdown, but didn't use much due to the weather we've had since April 2020 really.

And they are now able to do normal things again, so lots of astro gear may now gather dust for a while, then be sold...

[Girders]

I've been surprised how across the board this seems on so many things.  Daughter starting to get into BMX at the start of the summer and now looking to get her a bike.  One of the main brands/models saying no availability until the updated model in late 2022!

[FLO]

23 hours ago, Ouroboros said:

There are several bits of kit I’m looking at buying and I keep finding they’re  ‘Out of stock’.  OK we’ve just come through a Covid pandemic with all the consequences of that for manufacture and shipping. But when are things likely to  improve d’you think? Are we looking at months or years? 

The situation isn't good for most products, not only astro. 

Generally speaking, we continue to receive stock at our warehouse monthly but quantities are lower than we'd like due to high demand and materials / component shortages. Entire shipments routinely sell out before they dock. 

Someone waiting patiently for spare stock to be available before they place an order will likely wait several months while stock is allocated to those who have already placed an order. 

On those rare occasions we do have spare stock then everyone who clicked our website’s blue ‘Notify me when in stock’ button receives an auto-email notification. We might have only a handful but 100+ emails are sent so they sell out in only an hour or two. 

If you are able and don't mind waiting I recommend you place an order. But please be aware our dispatch estimates are only estimates. The sands are continuously shifting so it is near impossible for us to provide dependable updates. 

Regarding prices. The cost of manufacture, shipping and transport have all increased. This has and will result in higher retail prices. 

Where will it end? I don’t think anyone really knows. 

The car industry is perhaps a good indicator of where things are heading. Currently most new cars have a 4-6x month lead time. They expect this will improve slowly over 12-18x months. 

HTH, 

Steve 

[Maideneer]

It took me 7 straight months of looking at 10 different retailer websites, every single day mind you, to find and purchase my C9.25HD/CGEM II package.  Talk about frustrating, I get it!

[ScouseSpaceCadet]

Just about everything and anything nice is slow at the moment. Last Xmas I had trouble getting the CPU I wanted so settled for the top of the previous generation. GPUs I give up. Low availability and stupid prices. Sticking with our 2070 and 2060s picked up at normal prices a few months after release. Bicycles? Practice walking fast. Astro gear, if you're lucky. Even a reasonable three piece lounge suite takes months. All due to Brexit, covid & a butterfly fluttering its wings in the Amazon...

[Carbon Brush]

On used kit, mentioned by @7170. I think we are seeing this already.
In the past weeks/months there been a few people with low post counrs offering full setups on the SGL sale section.
In fact the sale item was the first post on a couple I saw this week.....
 

 

[900SL]

It's bonkers. Been trying to get a Vixen SXD2 for a few months. FLO don't have any (first port of call) and missed the last one at TE.  The current ETA is mid 2022 for the next shipment.

I can see me having to buy an iOptron at this rate  

 

[bosun21]

The fact that China has just closed two of its major shipping ports is definitely not going to help things 

[Louis D]

I'm hearing that semiconductor manufacturing probably won't sort itself out until well into 2023.  I figure that most other industries are in a similar condition.  I'm glad we bought a new car in July 2020 despite the raging pandemic while inventory was still good.

[Mr Spock]

The semiconductor shortage is the reason why you can't get new cars. 

[Louis D]

10 hours ago, Mr Spock said:

The semiconductor shortage is the reason why you can't get new cars. 

I realize that.  It's also why a lot of products with microelectronics in them are delayed.  There's also a shortage of workers around the world slowing things down.  A lot of folks took early retirement, older workers don't want to risk getting C19 and so aren't working or are working other jobs, and still others became self-employed during lockdown.  China is experiencing an energy crisis as well that is affecting factory production.  Texas had Snowmageddon last February that impacted petroleum refining and chemical manufacturing.  This then impacted other manufacturers like foam producers which impacted mattress and seating manufacturers.  The ripple effect is still sorting itself out a year later.  It's been a perfect storm of events leading to the current supply chain crisis.

[Richard_]

16 hours ago, Louis D said:

I'm hearing that semiconductor manufacturing probably won't sort itself out until well into 2023.  I figure that most other industries are in a similar condition.  I'm glad we bought a new car in July 2020 despite the raging pandemic while inventory was still good.

Having previously worked in the semiconductor manufacturing industry, I can believe that. This is exactly what happens when you operate 24/7 and your orders are already filled up for the following year, you can't simply work overtime to make up orders because you're already running full time. It's not possible to make "extra" orders without finding a way to reduce manufacturing lead time, improve yield or buy new equipment to improve capacity. Bear in mind that it won't be quick to add new equipment, because the equipment manufacturers also need semiconductor components to make their machines and so are also in the same boat! 

Of course, it only takes one incident to cause shortages. Back in circa 2012 some fab(s) in Thailand flooded which shut the fab down. This caused a shortage in hard drives / SD cards which is turn ramped the prices up temporarily. We're seeing a similar thing here, but on a global scale. 

In our growing world where everything is becoming "smart" or has sensors, whether they need them or not, there's more demand than ever on semiconductor products and I can't see shortages ending anytime soon.