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Relpet

Sunny forecast for Mercury transit?

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Not much chance in Dorking judging by the latest forecast.  Is there any place in England that has a positively sunny outlook for 11th November, please?  I'd quite like to see this transit as I'll either be aged 93 or fresh stardust when the next one comes around.

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You can't take much notice of weather forecasts that far ahead, they have trouble getting it right for a few hours ahead 😂

Dave

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It's not looking good. Things may change but clear outside usually looks like this where I live so my expectations are not high!

480081962_Capture_2019-11-05-12-43-44.thumb.png.41c6d52506140ecc766112682a10b261.png

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12 hours ago, Relpet said:

Not much chance in Dorking judging by the latest forecast.  Is there any place in England that has a positively sunny outlook for 11th November, please?  I'd quite like to see this transit as I'll either be aged 93 or fresh stardust when the next one comes around.

Hi Peter,

I'm off on 11th as are some of the other WAG gang, so hopefully we can meet up and find somewhere clear to observe this. Only thing to do is keep and eye on Sat24 and make a call on the day I think.

Stu

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Just watched BBC weather and there are chances of clear in West Kent, Surry, Sussex, Hampshire ATM but they're not sure how far the slow moving rain will move east.

Dave

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23 minutes ago, Davey-T said:

Just watched BBC weather and there are chances of clear in West Kent, Surry, Sussex, Hampshire ATM but they're not sure how far the slow moving rain will move east.

Dave

I'm holding off looking for a few days yet, but based on that Dave it's sounding possibly like I might not have to drive too far.........maybe. 🤞🤞

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12 minutes ago, johninderby said:

Forecast is poor for the transit here.

EDDB9B06-A2DF-4A0C-8A52-3726A7E01D1A.jpeg

Actually, I've just depressed myself by looking at the met office app which currently shows Plymouth as having sunshine and heavy showers over the transit duration.

Now wishing I hadn't looked. But like @Davey-Tsaid earlier the forecast 1 day in advance is seldom correct so anything further isn't worth worrying about. 

 

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For the last transit we had solid cloud but I popped a scope out just in case and it did clear for just a few minutes so that at least I can say that I saw Mercury crossing the Sun.

If I get any views around 1st and 2nd contact plus something when the planet is crossing the disk, I'll be pleased. Certainly not expecting long clear spells !

 

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22 hours ago, Davey-T said:

You can't take much notice of weather forecasts that far ahead, they have trouble getting it right for a few hours ahead 😂

Dave

A respected forecaster said recently that their 10 day forecast was as accurate now as their 24 hour forecast was a few decades ago.  Fingers crossed.  A 30 minute break in the cloud will do me.

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10 hours ago, Stu said:

Hi Peter,

I'm off on 11th as are some of the other WAG gang, so hopefully we can meet up and find somewhere clear to observe this. Only thing to do is keep and eye on Sat24 and make a call on the day I think.

Stu

I'll be hot to trot, Stu.

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I'm taking a half day. With the scope in the back of the car if needs be I setup on the top floor of the car park if the opportunity arises. Could be an exciting chase !

image.png.b4770321a85f7390590a3c126a0a7e77.png

Edited by StarryEyed

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The Met Office 10 day trend implies that the weather will remain very mobile and mostly Atlantic Maritime. As such detail is impsiible to forecast this far out. 

However, the general synoptic set-up give hope of a col over the UK Sunday into Monday bringing calmer weather with some lucky places being clear but most places cloudy with the risk of rain. Fog could be an issue too. 

Of course that could change for the worse!!!

 

 

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Forecast for  west Hampshire looking quite promising.  This for Micheldever near Winchester.

image.png.74e256c414a8e39323ce3deac235854b.png

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Looks like the Atlantic influence gets a move on over Sunday Night. Pushing a front through that clears W to E as the day progresses followed by showers in the west. The showers may merge for some.

Perhaps an opportunity for everyone to get at least a brief view of the Sun during the transit but not leave the equipment set up for long!

 

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The weather forecast here in Stockport was terrible with rain most of the day so I didn't even bother with a scope. However, just before lunchtime it started to clear in short patches so I drove home to get my gear, timing it so I got back to work for 12.30 and with about 15 minutes left of my lunch. I am glad I did as for about 30 seconds, and just as I put in my second eyepiece into the binoviewer, the sky cleared enough to see part of the transit and then clammed up again. It was worth it though. 

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