Terrestrial magnetic reversal - a concern?

[ollypenrice]

From a thread about compasses emerged a digression into magnetic reversals on earth and their consequences. They have happened many times in the past, presumably leaving the earth badly protected against harmful solar radiation.

However, we are now living as a dense population with a tenuous food chain and an enormous dependence on an electronic infrastructure for food and other distribution, trade, travel and communication. I'm not an expert but wouldn't the entire system melt down? And how well would we cope with such a meltdown?

Olly

[Alien 13]

Its not happened in any sort of technological era so it will be interesting when it does flip 

Alan

P.S. having the north pole (magnetic) in Leicester for a while will be nice..

[ronin]

Suppose it could be considered only relevant to a magnetic compass. Still bugs me that my tablet with GPS still uses a magnetic system, cannot see why.

From something I seem to think we have more then one sort of set of magnetic poles on the earth - not just the classical 2 at the top and bottom of the planet. There are areas where the polarity is reversed as the underlying rocks are magnetic and theirs is the stronger and so a compass points to odd directions.

Someone down in South Carolina (or the area) asked and it seems their magnetic declination was up around 12-15 degrees, so to an extent a magnetic compass is of limited relevance there.

 

[Alien 13]

It would have a very big impact on species that migrate although most use several methods if available.

Alan

[andrew s]

It is a real possibility.  The field strength has been falling for the past 160 years. Google the South Atlantic Anomaly for what's going on.

It would have a major impact on our civilisation. 

Regards Andrew 

[Erla]

On the plus side, if all electronics failed, so would most of the nastiest weapons. But it leaves me thinking - how bad the electronics would be harmed if at all? The magnetic field on the surface of the earth is tiny and we create our own magnetic fields using permanent magnets and electric currents, don't we? Maybe the only thing that would go crazy would be compasses? 

If we get less protection from solar storms and other cosmic rays, wouldn't we be able to adjust our technology to tolerate such events? And at least the sun lotion producers would experience a boom time, surely

[Stub Mandrel]

4 hours ago, andrew s said:

It would have a major impact on our civilisation.

Not on me, my cheap phone hasn't got a built in compass :-(

[Alien 13]

It would be nice to think that all planes where grounded for a few hundred years..

Alan

[andrew s]

46 minutes ago, Erla said:

On the plus side, if all electronics failed, so would most of the nastiest weapons. But it leaves me thinking - how bad the electronics would be harmed if at all? The magnetic field on the surface of the earth is tiny and we create our own magnetic fields using permanent magnets and electric currents, don't we? Maybe the only thing that would go crazy would be compasses? 

If we get less protection from solar storms and other cosmic rays, wouldn't we be able to adjust our technology to tolerate such events? And at least the sun lotion producers would experience a boom time, surely

From the small amount of research I have done I think the big impact will be on low earth orbit satellites.  So may be no GPS, satellite tv, spy satellites etch.

 

[Erla]

@andrew s , that wouldn't be too bad then, I can read maps reasonably well, no more bimbos driving of the piers, no 100 useless channels to flick through...

And maybe the good old times of old fashioned punctuality would come back - now that everyone has a mobile phone it seems like it's ok to text "I b l8 like half hour" and leave you waiting. I actually liked pre-mobile phone times, when you agreed to meet and if someone didn't show up in 15 min from agreed time you could assume he/she died and go do your thing. Not too keen on sending letters using a pidgeon though, so hopefully landlines would work. 

And in case all electronics would fail - well they were around only for 70 or so years. It would be temporary. 1930's where not exactly Stone Age. 

[andrew s]

It would be a big shock to international trade as all cargo ship now navigate via GPS with the old systems retired. It could well lead to a global recession etc.

While I agree there are some minor upsides there could also be some major downsides.

Regards Andrew 

[Erla]

Joking aside - no doubt, it would cause a turmoil. Maybe slight, maybe massive, maybe something in between. It would be felt most in advanced countries, but advanced countries have more resources to overcome issues, so it could mean a disaster to poorer regions. Whole sectors of economy could collapse, and it could snowball into a really big economical depression, maybe to the levels experienced during the mini ice age in Middle Ages or even Black Death. If not addressed correctly and without contingency plans, serious leadership and scientific community efforts it could lead to the end of the world as we know it. We depend a lot on near instant information transfer, especially in financial sector, and the quantity of information shifted would quickly overwhelm under-ocean cables. This alone has a potential for a widespread damage.  But, in case we can predict the event, I think even nastiest of corporations would be inclined to contribute to the solutions. Some groups and individuals will surely see benefit, opportunity, in chaos that could ensue. It will happen and we better are ready when it does. Will we be - that's the question, and will we be able to survive as what we now see as advanced, prosperous society. We already had dark ages following relatively enlightened antiquity. I hope our descendants won't need to do renaissance again just to learn what we know already. Nature can harm us, but we ourselves seem to do it much better from time to time.

[SilverAstro]

2 hours ago, Erla said:

Whole sectors of economy could collapse, and it could snowball into a really big economical depression, maybe to the levels experienced during the mini ice age in Middle Ages or even Black Death. If not addressed correctly and without contingency plans, serious leadership and scientific community efforts it could lead to the end of the world as we know it.

Oh! and I thought from the other topic that you were not worried for at least another 800,000y !

 

 

[Erla]

4 hours ago, SilverAstro said:

Oh! and I thought from the other topic that you were not worried for at least another 800,000y !

 

 

LOL no, I said that 800000 years ago homo erectus seemed to cope ok with magnetic shift. 

I also believe that in face of real challenges humanity is grown up enough to pull itself together, well, I hope so. And I also believe in our technological capabilities. Shift COULD cause havoc. Can we, if we put our heads to it, deal with it? Yes. And since that process would take 100 to 1000 years I think we, as species, eventually would. It's just too long of a timespan to sit with ones thumb in a mouth. 

It would cause problems if unprepared, though. But scientists are working, issue is known. 

[SilverAstro]

yes

Though we (the species) do seem to have a propensity to imagine imminent doom at every turn (and perhaps take precipitate action ?).  I suppose it comes from being a prey animal all those years ago in the grasslands, savannas, of Africa and even earlier the   imminent  ever present danger of falling out of a tree !!

[andrew s]

4 hours ago, Erla said:

It's just too long of a timespan to sit with ones thumb in a mouth. 

Seems like we are managing to do that with global warming are we not? I think we are better at reacting to a crisis than to matters on a time scale longer than an election/business bonus/grant cycle!

Regards Andrew

[Macavity]

I was (fairly) surprised to learn that the (much vaunted)
magnetic field of the earth affords us *relatively* less
protection against cosmic rays than the atmosphere...
The former might even *accelerate* the particles. The
latter being equivalent to about 13 feet of concrete!  

Not such an uncommon even as I had thought either:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal

[Erla]

Global warming has a problem of not being tangible. Loss of satellites would be. It's like London's sewage story - parliament was not too fussed about cholera outbreaks until it was impossible to breathe in Westminster because of stench. Then the solution was hastily implemented. Think what would happen if no one could read Trump's tweets - his ego just couldn't take it  ! New satellites would be launched as a matter of urgency. Also, there would be no profit for dirty (in ecological sense) corporations to deny the very obvious, I think they would use all the lobbyists to use public funds to return to status quo immediately. 

 

[andrew s]

9 minutes ago, Erla said:

Global warming has a problem of not being tangible. Loss of satellites would be. It's like London's sewage story - parliament was not too fussed about cholera outbreaks until it was impossible to breathe in Westminster because of stench. Then the solution was hastily implemented. Think what would happen if no one could read Trump's tweets - his ego just couldn't take it  ! New satellites would be launched as a matter of urgency. Also, there would be no profit for dirty (in ecological sense) corporations to deny the very obvious, I think they would use all the lobbyists to use public funds to return to status quo immediately. 

 

I think these are examples of reaction as I theorised. I doubt much will be done until satellites are actually lost even if the magnetic field had been falling for years. Only when a solar storm expands the atmosphere and brings down the satellites will action be taken. Until then the threat will be just as intangible and non-profit making as global warming. Would corporations build spare satellites just in case? Just as with future electricity supply the will sit on their hands waiting for government subsidies.

Regards Andrew

[Erla]

IDK, I'm usually pessimistic, but I do believe in fundamental decency of human beings. Yes, sometimes BS happens, but there's also lots of nice things. If we look at our progress- it's a positive one. We are becoming more tolerant, more ecologically and socially responsible. Yes, humans take baby steps towards greenhouse gas emissions but we are looking at the right direction. It's complex issues and time is needed. Maybe even generation changes. 

Lets hope for the best, prepare for the worst. 

[ollypenrice]

I'd have thought this would affect far more than just magnetic compasses and devices. Major solar flares play havoc with electronic systems. If the magnetosphere's sheild is as important as my course on the sun suggested it was ten years ago then would there not be similar consequences to those produced by slar flares?

Olly

[Stub Mandrel]

> Too many cables!

I suspect that a lack of magnetosphere and a major solar flare might solve your cable problem :-)

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-impacts.html

[ollypenrice]

3 hours ago, Stub Mandrel said:

> Too many cables!

I suspect that a lack of magnetosphere and a major solar flare might solve your cable problem :-)

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-impacts.html

A chainsaw would solve my cable problem...*

Olly

*Dark warning: I have a chainswaw. In fact I have three.... 

[Alien 13]

I wonder if fluctuating magnetic fields would cause localized hot spots that would damage power grid infrastructure and would the large scale changes induce volcanic activities?

Alan

[Dave In Vermont]

As a flip of the magnetic-poles may well be a natural occurance for the planet, why wouldn't the decimation of the bipedal-inhabitants also be natural and, though for reasons 'we' may not be able to understand, be necessary and beneficial?

Shall I hijack this thread to Native-American philosophy and Gaia? Hmmm...

Dave - with a tip o' the headband to Olly.