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digital_davem

According to FLO's Clear Outside site, 99% cloud coverage will become 5% in the next 5 minutes..

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Okay.......... I am going to hold my breath now...............(dies).

(And rises from the dead) Tuesday looks good here.... but I am not holding my breath. 

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The weather is a nightmare lately.  I have not had any viewing for months.   Solar or night. :( 

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It says 5% here at 23:00 and 2% at 00:00. I can assure you it's 100% ;)

Blowing a nasty gale too...

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It says 5% here at 23:00 and 2% at 00:00. I can assure you it's 100% ;)

Blowing a nasty gale too...

Same here. Not a spot of sky to see.

I hope FLO don't think their investment in original data sources wasted. Sometimes I wonder why the met guys don't throw away their supercomputers and just ask volunteers to look out the window and report by Twitter.

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Same here. Not a spot of sky to see.

I hope FLO don't think their investment in original data sources wasted. Sometimes I wonder why the met guys don't throw away their supercomputers and just ask volunteers to look out the window and report by Twitter.

The BBC want you to do just that... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weatherwatchers

ChrisH

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Don't bother with forecasts. Just keep a look out, it's been either permacloud here or windy clear gaps in the sky. I'd like to know what's happened to those clear, crisp and calm winter days and nights,

Nick.

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Don't bother with forecasts. Just keep a look out, it's been either permacloud here or windy clear gaps in the sky. I'd like to know what's happened to those clear, crisp and calm winter days and nights,

Nick.

I remember those Nick, November was always a fantastic month and I can recall as a youngster many a bonfire night where we used to sit around the fire and my Dad would point out the constellations.

Great memories.

Now in my 40's, so it's quite a while ago but the weather has been very poor for the last few years especially the last two with more storms than I care to count!

The last full viewing session I did was in September with a cheap 80mm frac and it was a joy to be out. We've had a couple of clear nights since but the wind put paid to any thoughts of getting the scope out!

It's disheartening to say the least

Damian

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Don't bother with forecasts. Just keep a look out, it's been either permacloud here or windy clear gaps in the sky. I'd like to know what's happened to those clear, crisp and calm winter days and nights,

Nick.

Clear outside now reports 100% cloudcover and yet I can see areas of blue sky and patchy cloud - my estimate 40-50% clear.

Do forecasters ever bother to verify their predictions of what is actually happening right now?

If I were a professional forecaster making predictions to incredible levels of fine detail and I could refute the whole lot merely by looking, I'd hang my head in shame and I'd certainly be embarrassed to draw a salary.

What happened to accountability? 

It's one thing feeling depressed about lost opportunities for stargazing, but these forecasts are informing decisions about whether to put out to sea in a 20 foot yacht....

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I only look at Clear Outside for the amusement factor now - just how often it is wrong (100%)! :eek:

Peter

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I'm not sure if its wrong for everyone, but it certainly does not match the local climatic conditions here in Moray. We have the  protection factor of the Mountains to the South and West of my location, giving us milder weather conditions than my surrounding areas, even with storms passing by!

Don't get me wrong, the roads are often shut here, on our boundaries, so access to Aberdeen can take longer to reach if the A96 is closed at Foundland (often)  or the A9 at the Slochd or further South at Aviemore or the A9 Drumochter pass ( nightmare diversions here?)

There are far  better  weather forecasts available to me, but not all forecasts incorporate the information that astronomers want to see, but its not too difficult to work out  how cold, how clear and no rain imminent?

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You guys complaining about the unreliable forecasts reminds me of our local TV forecaster who said "it's not the forecast that's wrong, it's the weather"  :rolleyes:

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I look forward to those clear skies as a rare treat.

Pretty sure if we had clear nights 365 days of the year, most of us wouldn't have time/energy to be out there all the time with work and other daytime obligations - and it would become commonplace!

All part of the fun of this mad, crazy hobby...  :D

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Sounds about right. Actually Clear Outside can be almost right but only within a few hours of when you look - I suppose someone at the MO has looked out the window :laugh:

Peter

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Just assume 100% cloud and you'll be right 99% of the time ;)

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If their unreliable, their unusable.

That weatherman is just blaming his tools,  probably unreliable too?

I have  found the android app UK Weather has proven to be pretty reliable for my needs, and  for a more specific local weather report, the aviation broadcast or shipping reports suffice my requirements.

At night if the Stars are  visible and steady,  its good to go, if there's any scintillation (twinkling), I`ll leave the scope indoors?

Edited by Charic

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Just assume 100% cloud and you'll be right 99% of the time ;)

Clear outside currently (midday) reports for Bromley, Kent:

99% cloud cover with 90% low cloud coverage.

A quick look outside shows 100% very low, very thick clouds.

Not bad from C.O. maybe? Except... 12 hours ago, C.O. said there was 2% cloud coverage and excellent astronomy conditions for a 3 hour period.  Looked outside and it was exactly the same as it is now, 100% cloud.  And this is exactly the same as it has been for the last week!!!

The forecasts appear to be completely useless. And FLO supposedly pays for these forecasts...

ps

And it's predicting 5% cover again at 4pm. Very unlikely/

Edited by digital_davem

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Forecasts are based on historical data and probabilities - so what happened last time as the result of observed conditions is quite likely to happen this time. The trouble is with global warming and consequently changing weather patterns the old models are becoming increasingly invalid, and what happened last time is less likely to happen in the future.

ChrisH

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I think co is quite accurate for me it says 100% cloud cover and sure enough the perma cloud is there.

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Ah and my bad luck continues. Since I bought my scope which was late October, my luck had only brought gales and cloudy nights. There was this one night when I took the scope out but that seems ages ago because I had no idea how to do polar alignment. Don't get me wrong, i still don't know how to polar align the scope properly because the darn clouds wouldn't go away!!!

I've taken a day off on Wednesday and according to CO Tuesday night looks very good and clear but then again ill use my own weather station (poking my head out of the window) to determine whether it is a potential stargazing night or not.

Sorry all, my lucky seems to have affected the entire UK

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I can see some stars :) - unfortunately I've persuaded my wife to stay in so we can watch a movie :(

Tuesday night looking all green at the moment - let's hope it stays that way.

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Clear outside currently (midday) reports for Bromley, Kent:

99% cloud cover with 90% low cloud coverage.

A quick look outside shows 100% very low, very thick clouds.

Not bad from C.O. maybe? Except... 12 hours ago, C.O. said there was 2% cloud coverage and excellent astronomy conditions for a 3 hour period.  Looked outside and it was exactly the same as it is now, 100% cloud.  And this is exactly the same as it has been for the last week!!!

The forecasts appear to be completely useless. And FLO supposedly pays for these forecasts...

ps

And it's predicting 5% cover again at 4pm. Very unlikely/

As I predicted zero clear sky at 4PM...

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Tuesday is looking dodgy now.....

If as Scope Nights & Clear(ha ha ha) Outside agree, then there is a chance that a clear patch may appear (+/- 24hrs).

Paul

PS. How do they manage to forecast 0% Cloud and Rain at the same time!!!

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Tuesday is looking dodgy now.....

If as Scope Nights & Clear(ha ha ha) Outside agree, then there is a chance that a clear patch may appear (+/- 24hrs).

Paul

PS. How do they manage to forecast 0% Cloud and Rain at the same time!!!

According to clear outside, Bromley has clear skies today. Yet when I look outside, it's 100% cloud cover, exactly like it's been for the last couple of weeks.  This site:

http://en.sat24.com/en/gb

shows real time satellite imagery and obvious thick cloud.

Where do CO get their data from, it's laughable...

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