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What are the chances of making a new discovery?


Ccolvin968

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I got to thinking... Nothing new there, but with as big as space is and how many of us there are, what do you think the chances are of making a new discovery or witnessing a one time event? I'm not talking anything specific, just a discovery of any kind. Terry Lovejoy has a few comets under his belt since 2008 ish. A 17 year old discovered a new exoplanet while on a school trip, two scientists saw a comet break apart and hit Jupiter, etc. has anybody here seen anything really cool that they are unlikely to see again or made a discovery? Clear skies to you all. :-)

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I would say comets and supernova are the likely objects.

Asteroids are unlikely as there are a number of big systems looking at the sky and imaging for those and amateur equipment cannot match that. They may however enable public to run the comparison software against sky images, in which case an amateur may see an asteroid before the "offical" survey sites do.

Levy-Schumaker was predicted to go into Jupiter, I think they determined the track of it, everyone watched it.

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Remember the M82 supernova of Jan. 2014?

Before it was 'discovered'  it appeared live in the Virtual Star Party of 19 Jan 2014. The amateurs of the party just did not notice the new star in the galaxy, even though it was staring them in the face.

I saw the show on Monday and didn't notice the supernova either.

On Tuesday 21 Jan the supernova was announced in the news. In the 26 Jan 2014 Virtual Star Party the unfortunate amateurs look back on their missed discovery.

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Having just finished reading David Levy's book on Comets (excellent read btw), comets seem a fairly good bet......just don't expect to find anything new quickly. Paraphrasing, go out, enjoy, become familiar with what you're looking at and keep in mind that you discover something. It still takes a highly dedicated approach though.

Astronomy is a hobby in which amateurs can be a significant help to the professionals and perhaps the easiest way to discover something is online by being part of Zooniverse and the like.

Happy hunting

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I agree completely laudro. Not saying that it's going to be a main mission of mine now. Just something I was wondering if others had done or what the chances were. Although, I wouldn't complain at all if I did find something on accident. :-)

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Comet hunter Terry Lovejoy says he averages one new comet every two years. He finds them by imaging areas of the sky at 10 minute intervals and using software to identify anything that moves. He then checks what the moving objects are, using databases of known asteroids, comets etc. He typically identifies about 100 candidate objects in a single night's session. He needs to take about 70,000 images to find one comet.

So the chances of discovering something new are very high, if you have the right equipment, develop a sufficiently good search technique, acquire the necessary skills, and - most importantly - put in a great deal of time and effort. Or alternatively, if you just happen to be incredibly lucky.

Whether you look for comets, supernovae, extra-solar planets or anything else, you're up against automated searches by professional observatories, which make the great majority of discoveries. So the search strategy should allow for that. Lovejoy concentrates on areas near the sun where the professional surveys don't look.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ask-the-experts-how-do-amateur-astronomers-discover-comets/

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I think finding new asteroids is likely to be the easiest and most prolific thing you can do.

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/celestial-objects-to-watch/hunting-asteroids-from-your-backyard/

http://www.airspacemag.com/as-interview/aamps-interview-roy-tucker-112571/?no-ist

Comets seem to be tougher but doable as are supernova and nova, it seems exoplanets too are a possibility.

All the above is something I plan to try my hand at when I have the right gear for it.

I have done a fair bit of reading on some of these things, this is an excellent site about comet hunting. There is lots to take in re the surveys and such and it is well worth chasing the links on the site to some other well known comet hunters.

http://www.nightskyhunter.com/Visual%20Comet%20Hunting.html

BOSS supernova search is great too.

http://www.bosssupernova.com/

Also you can keep an eye on SOHO data for comet discoveries.

http://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil/index.php?p=guide

All very inspiring.

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Ooh I forgot about meteorite impacts on the moon too, that's a thing.

You just beat me to it, I was looking at the Aristarchus region the oher night & it seemed like in my backyard. I said to myself if an impactor strikes right now I will surely see it  :smiley:

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Someone did come to SGL and made a thread about just that, I'll see if I can dig it up.

Wouldn't it be something to witness through the eyepiece?

I think most of the monitoring though comes on the dark half but it would still be impressive.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/lunar/program_overview.html

edit: http://stargazerslounge.com/topic/217955-lunar-impact-flashes/?hl=%2Blunar+%2Bimpacts#entry2343174

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Astronomy is one of the few sciences where amateurs regularly can and do make discoveries.  As for the actual chances of any one individual making a discovery, well it's probably small but certainly not zero.  Like anything though, it all depends on how much effortyou're prepared to put into it, to increase your chances of success.

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I figured those would be the main things too Ronin. I want to be the first to observe Betelgeuse go supernova!

But actually Betelgeuese already went.  Of course, if you use an old fashioned scope which can't even see faster than the speed of light, then you will have to wait a few more years....

Chris

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Someone did come to SGL and made a thread about just that, I'll see if I can dig it up.

Wouldn't it be something to witness through the eyepiece?

I think most of the monitoring though comes on the dark half but it would still be impressive.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/lunar/program_overview.html

edit: http://stargazerslounge.com/topic/217955-lunar-impact-flashes/?hl=%2Blunar+%2Bimpacts#entry2343174

Interesting. The OP didn't really report back on any results from that University of Wales project.

Of course the biggest recorded impact was in Sept 2013, an estimated 900-pounder travelling at 38,000 mph -

and here was the result -

http://lroc.sese.asu.edu/posts/810

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Regarding discoveries, let's not forget our own Supernova discoverers. Tom Boles from Suffolk currently holds the world record of spotting the most supernovae by one person: 155 supernovae.

In June this year, Ron Arbour, from Hampshire,  discovered two supernovae in a week, and a third followed soon after in July. I believe his tally is now 35.

Mark Armstrong has something like 58 SN discoveries to his credit.

These all resulted from a dedicate search programme, over many years.

Then, there's Steve Fossey, at the University of London, who was teaching a routine undergraduate class at UCL’s Observatory in Mill Hill, London on 2014 January 21. They were imaging M82 and found a supernova by chance.

Jeremy

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