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Hi folks,

just a heads up. Early this morning the sun released a huge x4.9 flare which is the third biggest in this solar cycle. Unfortunately the flare was on the edge of the disc but the associated coronal mass ejection does appear to have an earth directed component.

The flare and cme appears to have been travelling at 2000km per sec which would mean it may reach us tonight although spaceweatherlive.com suggests it will be 2-3 days which seems a bit too long for me although the cme may slow significantly.

although most of the cme isnt coming towards us there is a possibility that this could trigger mid latitude auroras.

Cheers

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i posted this in the image section, so this is what i got when i went for M109 last night, the image will need flipping to get it the right way up.....

I saw this just as I was thinking about packing up for the night as the temperature had dropped quite a bit suddenly.  I was just looking to the North and noticed how bright it looked, as if the full

A couple from Orkney

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Hi paul, spaceweatherlive is suggesting that this may well hit earth, despite not being directly directed towards us.......

SpaceWeatherLive Report

X4.97 solar flare - First CME analysis

LASCO imagery is dripping in and an asymmetrical full halo CME can be seen. This CME was launched by a X4.9 solar flare from region 1990 near the eastern limb. It is likely that this CME will arrive at Earth as a glancing blow somewhere during the second half of February 27.

The >10MeV protons are slowly rising and might reach the S1 threshold. EPAM low-energy protons and electrons are also currently rising, confirming that the CME indeed has an earth directed componment

So definitely worth watching thr datafeeds over the next 48hrs.

cheers

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Just as a heads up, the CME that came from this flare is expected to arrive in the next few hours. Space weather live has the following update....

The low-energy protons as measured by ACE EPAM are steadily rising which indicates the X4.9 CME is getting closer to Earth. A glancing blow is expected to arrive at Earth later today. NOAA is forecasting a G1 geomagnetic storm but the European SIDC is forecasting at most active conditions (Kp4) which to us seems the more likely scenario. Nevertheless, follow the data and forecasts on www.spaceweatherlive.com for the latest info!

As these things are so unpredicatable its definately worth having a look north , close to midnight tonight to see if there is anything happening.

Cheers

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Despite not being a fan of the wing kp 4 hr forecast due to not being that accurate the 1 hr forcast is showing 5.66 whichmis really promising.

The kiruna magnetometer has dropped about 700nt in the last one and a half hours and still dropping ... a drop of 1200 would be indicative of mid latitude visual aurora .

initially a max kp of 4 was forecast but we passed this about 1 hr ago so fingers crossed !

kp6 is needed for Manchester and kp7 for london so you never know .

cheers

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Despite not being a fan of the wing kp 4 hr forecast due to not being that accurate

Which do you pref. ?

I dont start getting excited till I see mid-lat reports on amateur radio ( or hear it for myself )

Got lots of sightings from near Bristol over the years that way

(prob not tonight, yet again after a day of blue skies we now have 70% cloud and getting worse )

PS are you watching the neg Bz at ACE !!!

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I prefer the one hour forecast as ive often had my hopes raised and put in a late night to see nothing ... at least one hour isnt that long to wait.

bz is really quite impressive and has been -10 and below for most of the evening. I was wathcning the data feeds on spaceweatherlive and the solar wind density almost went off the scale at 5pm when the cme hit.

all good stuff, lets hope it keeps building up to midnight when the auroral oval is more directed towards us.

cheers

Edited by astronymonkey
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I prefer the one hour forecast as ive often had my hopes raised and put in a late night to see nothing ... at least one hour isnt that long to wait.

Ok, yes, iswym

but if you hear of owt better - let me know :)

I am lucky in that my time is my own so 4hrs can be occupied otherwise !

anyway - back to topic -

Yes, I've been watching with fingers xxed since about 4pm when the CME passed ACE

and till a few mins ago it was all looking good, , , but

WingKp 4hr is falling !!!!

oh well, maybe yet another "nearly was"

Good luck , , ,

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Thats why I dont like the 4hr forecast ...... the 1 hr one though is now predicting 6.33 and kiruna magnetometer still looking good.... and the aurorawatch mag is now beginng to react which is promising.

Fair doos !

6 is good for them in the midlands and north

My turn though -

I dont put much store by Aurorawatch, I (and others) have _seen_ aurora from near Bristol (and elsewhere) when there was nothing on Aurorawatch,

so you pays your money - - and watch them all !

My best is to monitor amateur radio

Edited by Ptarmigan
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Hi all,

Best northern lights I have seen for over ten years.  It is still going on now (9.40). The 'curtain' effect in a broad band with lots of movement, some pink colouring, mostly white to me though.  I understand that different folk see colours of it differently.  Also light directly overhead with an effect like searchlights shining down and moving about.  Great.

Good luck.

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Right now got low clouds in the north silhouetted against green glow and a bright red glow in the NNW.

Might de-camp to the seafront for a better look. 

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Also light directly overhead with an effect like searchlights shining down and moving about.  Great.

Like looking up a tunnel, like StarTrek warp effect ! ?

Aurora corona

bodes well for strong input and good for effects further south.

I've only seen that once from down here, and pinks were then seen in Italy !

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