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Aurora Borealis Over Scotland & Northern England Tonight & Tomorrow Night


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The problem with kp as an index so that it is partially retrospective as a running average if you like so you never know what the actual number no is until after the fact. Aurorawatch shows no mag disturbance, mag-swepam shoes the cme been and gone, it's bedtime.

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Where they are in the sky depends on how far down the earth the auroral oval stretches and this depends on how loaded up the earth magnetic field becomes with charge and activated atoms. With a strong

can somebody arrange to have the moon turned down please

http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/ This is the page I'm keeping an eye on, it's specifically an Aurora forecast for Europe and the solar wind gauges are updated every minute without having

Being the eternal pessimist (it avoids disappointment!) I'd say: That's All Folks!

The recent event never really got off the ground. They even had low activity at higher latitudes :(

The only two aurora I've seen were both from my back garden and happened during major geomagnetic storm events. That's what it takes for us lot at all but the highest UK latitudes even then you need a reasonable sky.

I remember the last one very well.

The aurora forecasts were going crazy and I was keeping an eye on http://spacew.com/www/aurora.php and an old USENET discussion group.

I think it was early spring and not long after twilight faded the northerly horizon began to brighten again! USENET was going crazy by now "wow, what's happening? it's getting light again!!" kind of reports!

The pale colourless glow started looking redish and got higher. 

Eventually it reached overhead and then could even be seen towards the south!

For a couple of hours it danced and ebbed and flowed and changed colour.

I pointed out a breathtaking bright red corona overhead to my wife. She was briefly sympathetic knowing how much it meant to me to be seeing this. And rushed back inside to watch the other half of Conurbation Street...

It slowly faded and withdrew back to the northerly horizon and all was quiet again.

I can't remember when it was. A good few years ago. Probably at the last Solar Max.

I'm sure others on SGL will have fond memories of that event.

I wonder if this feeble solar max has got an event like that in store for us as it slides towards infamy.

Sadly, the pessimist within isn't very optimistic!!

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According to one article, 24 hours after the CME's arrival there could be some storming tonight as it can take that long to "get going".

Aurora Service EU gives an hourly KP index which is far more accurate and reliable than AuroraWatch who seem to do nothing unless the AB is at KP7 right there and then.

A couple of people in Northern Ireland managed to get pictures, assuming when it was at KP4, which gives me hope for future occurrences.

I'll be keeping an eye on things tonight but not expecting much... but you never know.

I hope people aren't too disappointed and will stay optimistic for next time.

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Edit regarding the above post, in case anyone is interested, Aurora Borealis was photographed in Shap near Penrith in North Cumbria last night, which is only an hour's drive from my location in South Cumbria, so for future reference, KP3-4 under good - fair sky conditions in a good location is very much a possibility.

Tonight's KP prediction for Europe is KP1, which suggests Iceland will be fortunate to see anything. I know some papers and websites are suggesting it's possible for Scotland and Northern England, but I honestly wouldn't get hopeful over it (and I'm an optimist concerning these kind of things).

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Personally, if you want to track Aurora activity, I'd say don't waste time following AuroraWatch, follow 'Aurora Service EU', they're more accurate, up-to-date (and more friendly). They give 1 minute updates on solar winds and hourly Aurora updates with accurate KP readings. It's specifically for Europe and the map shows the ovation in relation to the UK. AuroraWatch post general readings every 3 hours of collective averages. So unless you're prepared to hear about the amber alert as it's happening and have the time and position to run out the house to a good location at last minute, I wouldn't bother with their dingy little home-made machine considering there are several other much more informative and up-to-date websites.

If anything remotely significant occurs on the Aurora-front, I'll let folk know. I suppose you can never truly know, but tonight I think, it's over:

10 January

Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

Level 2 – Low

Forecast:
Auroral activity should be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

Comments:
The much anticipated CME appears to have been more of a glancing blow to Earth than computer models suggested. As such there is no significant geomagnetic activity expected.

Realistically Scotland and the most Northerly parts of England may get a look in at KP3-4 under good conditions in a good location but for the most of Northern England KP6 would be required and anything further South of Manchester would need perfect conditions and a perfection location and perfect timing or KP7.

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Edit regarding the above post, in case anyone is interested, Aurora Borealis was photographed in Shap near Penrith in North Cumbria last night, which is only an hour's drive from my location in South Cumbria, so for future reference, KP3-4 under good - fair sky conditions in a good location is very much a possibility.

Tonight's KP prediction for Europe is KP1, which suggests Iceland will be fortunate to see anything. I know some papers and websites are suggesting it's possible for Scotland and Northern England, but I honestly wouldn't get hopeful over it (and I'm an optimist concerning these kind of things).

I know Shap well, we have a static caravan just north of there. Great spot for noctilucent cloud spotting but never been fortunate to see an aurora there. Probably because we are mostly there in summer only.

Are those mages of last night's aurora available on line?

I'm just curious just how intense it was.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

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Hi Paul, yes there's a photograph here that was featured in our local paper today. I noticed one of the commenters said they captured several, better pictures of the AB in Shap last night too.

4280266246.jpg

That's an interesting image.

But I can't help thinking something is wrong.

The arc or semicircle of green glow on the right seems to be in front of the cloud bands.

There is also a central circular artifact that the main "auroral" band points towards the center of.

It's a very high contrast feature that I would have expected to be more widely reported.

I cant help thinking that the photographer has captured lens flare. Perhaps internal reflections of moonlight or whatever it is that is illuminating the left hand edge of the image?

It's certainly the right colours for an Aurora but I'm not sure that's what it is!!

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Personally, I have found Aurorawatch to be very reliable - whenever there has been an amber or red alert there has been something to see (somewhere in the UK) - but it is "get out now and look..." 

I don't think there is any reliable forecasting service - you just need to be prepared...

Callum

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Edit regarding the above post, in case anyone is interested, Aurora Borealis was photographed in Shap near Penrith in North Cumbria last night, which is only an hour's drive from my location in South Cumbria, so for future reference, KP3-4 under good - fair sky conditions in a good location is very much a possibility.

That's about on line with Denmark, where they predicted there could be some activity. If the aurora alerts starts indicating a kp of about 5 I think I might step outside just in case.
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I've read of a handful of people in Shap seeing the AB last night, there's a couple of pictures floating around.

Personally I wouldn't recommend AuroraWatch to anyone, especially anyone who wasn't particularly 'into' astronomy but wanted to be in the know. I don't know many people who are in a position to drop everything late at night in an instant because AW will report an amber alert once KP6 is already in action so to speak. As I've mentioned 'Aurora Service EU' offers hourly forecasts, with accurate KP readings, ovation map, 1 minute solar wind readings and realistic updates, it's the one site I'd recommend to stargazers and all those I know who don't do astronomy but would obviously like to know when the AB is possibly around.

Astromonkey is right, even in perfect conditions and a good KP, the AB are fickle and elusive. But last night proves - with sightings in Northern Ireland, North Wales and Northern England - that a KP3-4 is a certainly possible.

Some scientists, according to some articles I've just been reading online, suggest that tonight there's up to 85% chances of seeing the AB across Britain under clear, dark skies. And one article even went as far as suggesting as far South as London. I'd love to think this is going to happen, and you never really know, but I think they're being a bit OTT with the optimism.o

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That's an interesting image.

But I can't help thinking something is wrong.

The arc or semicircle of green glow on the right seems to be in front of the cloud bands.

There is also a central circular artifact that the main "auroral" band points towards the center of.

It's a very high contrast feature that I would have expected to be more widely reported.

I cant help thinking that the photographer has captured lens flare. Perhaps internal reflections of moonlight or whatever it is that is illuminating the left hand edge of the image?

It's certainly the right colours for an Aurora but I'm not sure that's what it is!!

Yes, it really does look like two large green lens flares overlapping each other and one smaller one. Plus the fact as you have mentioned, the green tint is in front of the clouds. Possibly a passing car light was reflected in the lens elements.

It is so easy to imagine something is there - I was up several hours before sunrise to see whether the latest CME had wrought havoc with our atmosphere and imagined a greenish tinge but it was some white, very distant light pollution mixing with sodium from the town a couple of dozen miles away. Must have still been asleep & walk-dreaming! :D

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For all I know it could be lens flair, the yellow bit instantly stood out as odd to me, it didn't seem right, but I'm no expert and since seeing that particular photo, two other people mentioned they saw the AB in Shap, so maybe it was there and he tried to photograph it but it went wrong...? It is the right colour of green but the formation isn't usual for AB. And apparently they were also seen in North Wales, there's a good photo of them in Northern Ireland doing the rounds on Twitter.

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Remember the moon is up and is waxing to half and it does create interesting lighting in the clouds.   :)

I don't think we are discounting what people are saying they saw in Northern England and Wales, it would be foolish to discount what they saw -  but this image does not look like an example of AB.

Is there any chance a higher res. image could be uploaded to SGL, please?

Edited by Beulah
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It is so easy to imagine something is there - I was up several hours before sunrise to see whether the latest CME had wrought havoc with our atmosphere and imagined a greenish tinge but it was some white, very distant light pollution mixing with sodium from the town a couple of dozen miles away. Must have still been asleep & walk-dreaming! :D

That is true. We were in a good location for it, with partly clear skies and I thought I saw the green haze in the direction it should have been (and where it's been reported since) but due to distance and only ever experiencing the AB at zenith in Iceland, I couldn't be certain, I'm still not certain and won't ever be nor will I ever know if it was the AB. I've put it down to hopeful eyes and mind.

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Remember the moon is up and is waxing to half and it does create interesting lighting in the clouds.   :)

I don't think we are discounting what people are saying they saw in Northern England and Wales, it would be foolish to discount what they saw -  but this image does not look like an example of AB.

Is there any chance a higher res. image could be uploaded to SGL, please?

Unfortunately not... it's not my image and I only saw it in the local paper/website this morning... I agree it doesn't look like AB, but it does co-inside with a handful of reports in the area. The moon did confuse the situation last night.

Someone commented on the article that herself and her husband watched the AB in Shap and got much better photos than this one, so I hope the website will add them to their online article so we can have a look, it will be interesting to see if they're actual AB.

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Oh my... I've just checked the article for any updates or new photographs... this might give some of you a laugh... and the worrying thing is, two of the three people who took the pictures claim to be professional photographers... http://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/stargazers-capture-glimpse-of-northern-lights-in-cumbria-1.1109402

They've added a random picture of orange clouds from a local town, a picture of a rainbow and the other potential/probable lens flare photo is still up... the local newspaper is embarrassing, I have to say.

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Yay, local papers!!! There's no way any of the 3 pictures shown on the local paper's website are auroras. I liked the moonlit rainbow shot though. The lens flare one has green in front of the cloud, and the yellow is wrong. There's also more entertainment from the same newspaper with a lens flare reported as a UFO:http://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/could-a-barrow-woman-have-caught-a-picture-of-a-ufo-1.1109320.

Shame we only got a glancing blow from the CME.

Joe

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