Solar Cycle 24 beginning!

[daz]

News issued via my local A.S.

SOLAR CYCLE 24 IS BEGINNING

By Richard Bailey, SPA Solar Section Director

At long last there are signs that the new Solar Cycle 24 is beginning.

Solar activity goes through an approximate eleven-year cycle, when

from a very quiet period when hardly any sunspots and other phenomena

are visible, activity rises to a maximum in about five years, then

declines again.

Cycle 23 reached a maximum around 2001, and hardly anything has been

seen for some weeks lately. Over the Cycle any sunspots visible are

seen in the Sun's equatorial region at Minimum periods, and new-Cycle

activity shows at higher latitudes, around 30 degrees N or S. An area

with sunspots has a N-S polarity, which reverses between successive

Cycles.

On December 13 a small patch of activity ( faculae ) was seen around

30 N, with the reversed polarity, but no sunspots developed. In the

past few days, though, sunspots were seen around the same latitude

with the reversed polarity heralding the imminent start of the new

Cycle 24. The experts reckon that the Cycle will be more active than

the last, which was pretty good, so hopes of much to see are high.

It will be a good few months before activity begins to increase

substantially, but by using SAFE SOLAR OBSERVING METHODS a watch kept

of the Sun's activity will show the development of the new Cycle. The

safest way to observe is to project the Sun's image via a refractor or

binoculars onto a white card, to get an image about 150mm in diameter.

ALWAYS take great care when attempting to observe the Sun. Even a

split-second blast of it can damage an eye beyond repair .

The SPA Solar Section Director will be glad to have any reports of

activity seen, with the date and time (in UTC) noted, and drawings

and photographs will be useful.

I can give guidance on observing the Sun safely, and recording

observations .

The SPA Electronic News Bulletins are sponsored by the Open University.

Bulletin compiled by Clive Down

© 2008 the Society for Popular Astronomy

[Stephen Green]

Hi Daz I get a daily report on Solar reports from Belgium Geoalert Sidc at www.sidc.be/products/xut

Stephen

Eastbourne AS East Sussex

[saturn5]

In another 3 to 4 years auroras should be back to a regular occurance,well at least for my latitude anyway. :colors: http://www.spaceweather.com/ gives alerts for solar activity and imminent geomagnetic storms.

[supernova]

Sat5 that is a good site I am on it

[lunator]

Daz

This cycle is supposed to be an active one

Here's hoping

Cheers

Ian

[supernova]

It will be ,

[Sam]

In another 3 to 4 years auroras should be back to a regular occurance,well at least for my latitude anyway. :colors: http://www.spaceweather.com/ gives alerts for solar activity and imminent geomagnetic storms.

The kids and I have our homemade mag...n..o??..meter at the ready.

[Astroman]

Heheheh. "Magnetometer"? What fun!

[Talitha]

Cycle 23 was a lot of fun.. looking forward to #24! :thumbup:

[daz]

Have just finished reading Stuart Clark's "The Sun Kings" - all about Richard Carrington's observations of an enormous flare in 1859 (very good, interesting read!)

The general consensus appears to be that 24 will be very active, and could possibly lead to a greater flare than in 1859. The flare then engulfed a huge part of the planet in aurorae, caused huge disruptions to the telegraph system and generally caused a bit of mayhem!!

I think its time to save up for a solar scope!!

(LB do you have a link to plans for your magnetometer??)

[Talitha]

Thanks for the book info Daz, I love that kind of read!

[S2]

The experts reckon that the Cycle will be more active than the last, which was pretty good, so hopes of much to see are high.

I hope so - but the last analysis I found was this NOAA Press Release from April last year, when opinions were split between a below average cycle and an above one.

In the cycle forecast issued today, half of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October of 2011. The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots, plus or minus 10, peaking in August of 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots.

Has anyone seen any more recent projections?